ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Dry air from the Upper Level Low is sucking into the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[NDG]

We'll see, as it passes by, what kind of a wind shift we get at the buoy...whether there is little to none, or if it is a sharp shift. My bet, just looking at the obs from the areas, leans toward little to none.

Winds across central & southern coastal Brevard County have switched to the NW.
Vero Beach is now reporting westerly winds.

[brunota2003]

I saw right after I posted...and edited accordingly.

29.55" = 1000.68 millibars

[NDG]

down to 1000.6 mb now at the buoy!!!!!! 3 mb down in last hour!!!! Uh oh!

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
28.5N 80.2W 78 82 30/ 45/ 54 1000.6F

And look at the remarks:

Conditions at 41009 as of
(8:50 pm EDT on 10/09/2011)
0050 GMT on 10/10/2011: .

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 44.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.55 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.24 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 81.0 °F

[fci]

It's a very still, clear night here in Port Saint Lucie now. Heck of a lightning show to our north.

Amazingly, the lightning show to the north is also present as far south as Northern Broward County!
Driving up the turnpike to Palm Beach County I watched it and then saw nothing on the radar.
Tops must be HUGE!

[tolakram]

Watching the swirl now near Key West. Maybe all models were correct, with focus now shifting to the eastern gulf.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

It's a very still, clear night here in Port Saint Lucie now. Heck of a lightning show to our north.

Amazingly, the lightning show to the north is also present as far south as Northern Broward County!
Driving up the turnpike to Palm Beach County I watched it and then saw nothing on the radar.
Tops must be HUGE!

Per radar, tops earlier (within the last hour) were spiking up to 45 or 46K...some storms further offshore are pushing 47K.

[LarryWx]

The GFS runs of THU/FRI and wxman57 are scoring an amazing victory imo. As was noted, in just three hours time, the buoy 50 miles E of Cape Canaveral has seen a pressure fall of 0.24"/8 mb! The SST is 82F, easily warm enough for tropical development as the low moves NW still just offshore.

6 PM 28.5N 80.2W 74 82 10/ 31/ 39 1008.6F 20/12 16/12
7 PM 28.5N 80.2W 73 82 10/ 39/ 47 1006.8F 19/11 15/11
8 PM 28.5N 80.2W 77 82 20/ 41/ 54 1003.4F 22/11 18/11
9 PM 28.5N 80.2W 78 82 30/ 45/ 54 1000.6F

[CronkPSU]

Watching the swirl now near Key West. Maybe all models were correct, with focus now shifting to the eastern gulf.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

help the newbie living in central florida who wasn't watching the models last week, what does that mean? 2 Lows? and we are about to get rain from the other side now?

[NDG]

How about yet another mb drop and wind gust to 67mph!

Conditions at 41009 as of
(9:20 pm EDT on 10/09/2011)
0120 GMT on 10/10/2011:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 44.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 58.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 82.4 °F

[brunota2003]

9:20 pm EDT update of buoy 41009:
29.52" = 999.67 millibars
Sustained winds: 44.7 knots = 51.4 mph
Gusts: 58.3 knots = 67.1 mph

[stormhunter7]

got BV on KMLB peaking out at 83kts at 1888ft. Just right off the Cape

[CronkPSU]

Bastardi just finished watching Boardwalk Empire...i expect some more tweets like this soon

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pressure at data buoy 29.52 winds now gusting to near 70 mph! There is no excuse for the lack of a name on this

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
How can this be happening in the year 2011.. an un-named storm hits the central Fla coast in mid hurricane season pic.twitter.com/ZnRBhuPK



@BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
NWS now forced to storm warning.. unheard of in Hurricane season in Fla coastal waters. Latest Buoy plot pic.twitter.com/YquwCoiX

[cycloneye]

I am only speculating but maybe this gets a review at post season analysis.

[NDG]

Bastardi just finished watching Boardwalk Empire...i expect some more tweets like this soon

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pressure at data buoy 29.52 winds now gusting to near 70 mph! There is no excuse for the lack of a name on this

Lol, he's going to blow an artery!

[stormhunter7]

Very interesting radar data in last hour on KLMB. This low should be ashore with next few hours

[CronkPSU]

holy cow, we just got one big ole band just come through in Apopka, not looking forward to the cleanup tomorrow, tons of branches down that i can see already, that was pretty darn strong and we are 65 miles offshore of this thing

[NDG]

Just watched Chief Met Tom Terry from Orlando's Channel 9
He said:
"This is crazy...never have I ever seen coastal conditions report tropical force wx conditions and not have officially a named system in our hands"

[NDG]

Sunday, October 09, 2011
Posted at 10:21 PM
Strong Winds Cape Canaveral north
Strong northeast to north winds of 40 to 45 mph with gusts 55 mph or higher will impact the coast from Cape Canaveral north. An area of low pressure off Cape Canaveral is producing wind gusts to 70 mph in the Cape Canaveral and North Merritt Island area and the mainland from Oak Hill to Mims and the northeast corner of Brevard county. The winds have shifted to the north and northwest from Cocoa and Rockledge south along the coast as the low moves in a north northwest direction in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. The strong winds will push across coastal portions of Southern Volusia and North Brevard counties. The wind and gusts will diminish as you go west of Interstate 95 and past the Orlando area.


Posted by Bob Wimmer

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/blog.php

[brunota2003]

Lol...apparently he has never dealt with a Nor'Easter before? Or a strong tropical wave/midlevel low? Strong pressure gradients causing very strong winds are pretty common...