WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Depression

[climateconcern23]

located just south of Guam.

[climateconcern23]

JTWC

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 145.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

the area of convection has decreased ...

[climateconcern23]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N
140.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF YAP, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH TWO FORMATIVE CURVILINEAR
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE LLCC EXISTS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT COL REGION
NESTLED BETWEEN TWO NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS APPROXIMATELY
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD ALONG WITH
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
-JTWC

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 082127
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 08/2032Z

C. 7.4N

D. 137.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
LLCC. GT 2/10 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

[senorpepr]

336
TXPQ26 KNES 090930
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 09/0832Z

C. 8.2N

D. 135.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...92W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE CONVECTION AROUND LLCC WHICH
APPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. CLOUD
TOP TEMPS HAVE SHOWN WARMING FROM 6 HOURS PREVIOUS BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE
OF SYSTEM REMAINS SYMMETRIC WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. 4 TENTHS BANDING GIVES
DT=2.5. MET AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI




WWJP25 RJTD 090600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 55N 135E SIBERIA MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 55N 135E TO 55N 141E 55N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 55N 135E TO 47N 133E 42N 126E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 146E 47N 152E
50N 155E 43N 155E 40N 145E 44N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 40N 175E EAST 25 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 135E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 116E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 48N 113E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 37N 149E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 150E TO 31N 166E 34N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 08.3N 133.1E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 09.0N 130.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another shot of rain for the already saturated region.

[Infdidoll]

Sooo....What did you guys do to tick off Mother Nature down there? Seriously?

I've missed a few weeks of good storm tracking with all the responsibilities I've had lately, but this just doesn't look fair - one hammering after another. Hopefully this stays weak as forecast!

[oaba09]

Another one? Really?

At least it'll affect a different region(Visayas)..

[Extratropical94]

Now TD Twenty-Three
WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091751Z SEP 11//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 7.5N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 7.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 8.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 9.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.3N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE 25-KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 091751Z OCT 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091800). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z,
101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Has Euro seen this coming?

Yeah, at least it's time for the southern provinces now. Lol. It would be worse if it will track towards the flood-hit region of Luzon.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I remember in the spring the south got it pretty good as well. Just another day in the PI I suppose right.

Anyhow, just made a new video on the storm. Let me know what you guys think and if you have any other thoughts?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=row2KrCfWPk[/youtube]

[HurricaneBill]

Does the next name begin with an "N"?

"N" storms seem to have it out for the Philippines this year. (Nock-Ten, Nanmadol, Nesat, Nalgae)

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 07.3N 131.2E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 08.2N 128.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

next name: Banyan- A tree commonly found in the southern part of China.

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 7.5N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 7.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 8.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 9.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.0N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.1N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.3N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 131.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY LEADING INTO
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED
BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF
AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF JAPAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN MINDANAO AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLAND CHAIN.
AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W WILL EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RESUME
INTENSIFICATION WITH A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LIMITED
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 20 DEGREE SPREAD.
JGSM IS TO THE RIGHT AND WBAR IS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
WBAR'S UNLIKELY WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN





TXPQ26 KNES 100911
TCSWNP

A. 23W (NONAME)

B. 10/0832Z

C. 7.5N

D. 131.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...23W HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING PAST 6
HRS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLCC HAS BEEN PULSING WITH NO OVERALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION INTENSITY OR COVERAGE. BROAD OUTER BAND WRAPS
AROUND ALL BUT EASTERN QUADRANT. INNER CONVECTION WRAPS 5 TENTHS (BEING
GENEROUS) ON LOG SPIRAL FOR DT=2.5. PT=1.5 AND MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0517Z 7.3N 132.0E AMSU


...RUMINSKI



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1008.0mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.5 2.8



if it weren't for any landmass, this should continue to intensify but land will limit its strengtheing.

[cebuboy]

Looks like a strong convection is heading to Cebu province for the first time I hope it won't flood as worse as in Luzon.. God Bless!

[dexterlabio]

^is it raining now in your place? Looking at the satellite images, Eastern Visayas is covered by very thick convection, now I'm assuming that there are heavy, widespread rains going on there. Stay safe!


By the way, JMA has this now as a TS, so, this is officially TS BANYAN.


TS 1120 (BANYAN)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 11 October 2011

<Analyses at 11/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°50'(8.8°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°05'(11.1°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E123°05'(123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA follows suit.


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMON"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 11 October 2011
"RAMON" has intensified into a storm as it continues to threaten Eastern Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 180 km East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Coordinates: 8.9°N, 127.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center with gustiness of up to 80 kph
Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 17 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon:
over Southern Leyte or
70 km North of Maasin, Southern Leyte
Thursday afternoon:
vicinity of Bongabong, Oriental Mindoro
Friday afternoon:
200 km West of Iba, Zambales

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Southern Leyte
Eastern Samar Surigao del Norte
Siargao Island
Surigao del Sur
Dinagat Island
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Masbate
Ticao Island
Romblon
Sorsogon
Northern Leyte
Biliran Island
Bohol
Cebu
Northern Negros
Northern Samar
Western Samar
Panay Island
Guimaras Island
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Misamis Oriental
Camiguin

[dexterlabio]