EPAC: TWELVE - Post - Tropical

[Macrocane]

The NHC doesn't even mention El Salvador the rainfall has been excesive and has not stopped since Monday night, There have been some flooding, mudslides, fallen trees, and other rain problems. I will try to keep you updated.

[Cyclenall]

I don't think a TC has ever formed within 18 hours of the NHC showing 20% of becoming a TC within 48 hours! Not only that, but it was up to 90% over the weekend and then fell to 20% before it became 12-E.

[bg1]

I don't think a TC has ever formed within 18 hours of the NHC showing 20% of becoming a TC within 48 hours! Not only that, but it was up to 90% over the weekend and then fell to 20% before it became 12-E.

I think it happened last year, with the NHC showing no chance of development 18 hours before I think the last storm formed in September.

[Macrocane]

SECOND RAINIEST DAY EVER IN EL SALVADOR

Yesterday was the 2nd wettest day in El Salvador's history, only tropical storm Agatha produced more rain in 24 hours. The wettest tropical cyclones are now:

1. Agatha 483 mm/19.01 inches May 29 2010
2. TD 12E 407 mm/16.02 inches October 11 2011
3. Mitch 375 mm/14.76 inches October 31 1998
4. Stan 320 mm/12.60 inches October 3 2005
5. Invest 96E 355 mm/13.98 inches November 8 2009
6. Fifi 299 mm/11.77 inches September 19 1974

This map shows the rainfall (in mm) registered from 7 am yesterday through 7 am today:

[Macrocane]

Guatemala has received lots of rain too, These are some rainfall amounts registered yesterday according to the INSIVUMEH (their weather service):

San Jose airport 307.7 mm/12.11 inches
Champerico 208 mm/8.19 inches
Montufar 246 mm/9.69 inches
Mazatenango 141 mm/5.55 inches
Retalhuleu 120 mm/4.72 inches
Solola 112.4 mm/4.43 inches
Tecun Uman 106.4 mm/4.19 inches

[Macrocane]

This is a picture taken this morning (not by me), it's the bridge that connects Guatemala with El Salvador, the overflowing river is the Paz River and marks the borderline between the countries.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011
200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR DATA OUT OF MOZOTAL AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
CROSSED THE COAST BETWEEN SALINA CRUZ AND ARRIAGA DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING...INDICATIVE THAT WEAKENING HAS
ALREADY BEGUN. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY LOSE ITS
IDENTITY WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE GYRE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INDICATE REMNANT
LOW STATUS IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.

CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/06. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS
SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

VERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EVEN AFTER THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.3N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS QUITE WEAK AND THE INTENSITY
IS SET GENEROUSLY TO 25 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS...THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
ABOUT 040/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.8N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

At least 13 have died in Guatemala because of the massive floodings caused by this slow moving system.

[Macrocane]

TD 12E CAUSES DEATHS AND DAMAGES IN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR

The depression made landfall this afternoon but it is still producing rains. The total rainfall has reached near record levels and there have been floods and mudslides in Guatemala and El Salvador. This is a summary of the damages.

Guatemala
-20 people have died.
-32 000 people have been affected.
Link (in Spanish): http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/lluvia-impacto-fallecidos_0_571142964.html

El Salvador
-3 deaths
-3100 people displaced
-2 damaged bridges
-35 fallen trees, 123 important mudslides, 21 rivers overflowed.
-Link (in Spanish-official ionformation): Protección Civil-El Salvador

A gallery of some of the damages in El Salvador: http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/popGaleria.asp?idArt=6285475&idcat=47673#leaf

[Chacor]

Now on the Atlantic TWO.



A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Macrocane]

Heavy rains were registered yesterday in El Salvador but not as extreme as Tuesday the highest yesterday was 130 mm/5.12 inches in El Pacayal volcano, by the way it's still raining and we have not seen the sun since Monday, this map shows the rainfall (in mm) in the 24 hours period ending at 7 am today: