ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110151511
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011101512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011101412, , BEST, 0, 166N, 865W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101418, , BEST, 0, 168N, 864W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 864W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101506, , BEST, 0, 172N, 864W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101512, , BEST, 0, 174N, 864W, 25, 1006, DB

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112077&hilit=&p=2200858#p2200858

[cycloneye]

TAFB at 12z surface analysis places the low on same position as invest one.

[maxx9512]

Looking at the latest sat. loops it does not appear to be moving much. it sorta looks to be moving
going ,or maybe just expanding northward. NHC says toward Yucatan but if it is supposed to increase
rain chances in Fla.I can't see it going that way. Does seem to have a broad circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[ronjon]

This is getting interesting folks. SSD tags a 1005 mb low near 17.5N-86W - not far from the NRL location. Broad cyclonic circulation showing up on SAT. Question is can it reach TD status prior to moving NW over the Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[psyclone]

this would be far more interesting if that big cold front wasn't headed into the gulf by midweek.

[cycloneye]

Low Level Convergence has increased,but is still broad.



Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[AdamFirst]

Looking at the latest sat. loops it does not appear to be moving much. it sorta looks to be moving
going ,or maybe just expanding northward. NHC says toward Yucatan but if it is supposed to increase
rain chances in Fla.I can't see it going that way. Does seem to have a broad circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

The broad low will move over the Yucatan but all of its moisture will be sheared to the northeast towards Cuba and Florida. At least that's what's in the cards right now. Plus with a strong early-season cold front coming down the moisture will be amplified.

[AdamFirst]

Post model plots for this NW Caribbean system here.

[Rainband]

agreed will be picked up by the front. Just a question of what it becomes before then.

[cycloneye]

Not a good moment to be on vacation in Cozumel.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 151514
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1514 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20111015 1200 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111015  1200   111016  0000   111016  1200   111017  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  86.4W   18.5N  87.2W   18.9N  88.5W   19.1N  89.9W
BAMD    17.4N  86.4W   18.8N  87.2W   19.9N  88.3W   20.7N  89.9W
BAMM    17.4N  86.4W   18.7N  87.1W   19.4N  88.2W   19.9N  89.7W
LBAR    17.4N  86.4W   18.8N  87.2W   20.9N  88.0W   23.2N  88.5W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          29KTS          27KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111017  1200   111018  1200   111019  1200   111020  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.1N  91.1W   19.7N  92.3W   18.1N  93.1W   14.9N  95.5W
BAMD    21.0N  91.4W   21.4N  93.2W   21.5N  93.4W   20.4N  90.8W
BAMM    20.0N  91.1W   20.4N  93.1W   19.7N  94.8W   17.7N  97.4W
LBAR    25.3N  88.2W   30.3N  82.7W   38.5N  67.3W   41.7N  59.2W
SHIP        53KTS          63KTS          60KTS          49KTS
DSHP        33KTS          43KTS          40KTS          28KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.4N LONCUR =  86.4W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  17.0N LONM12 =  86.4W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  16.6N LONM24 =  86.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM




[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[NDG]

I agree, broad elongated low pressure off the coast of the Yucatan but even the euro now keeps it broad before it would have the slightest possibility of being picked up or torn apart by the next stronger trough, but regardless of development looks like a wet period for S FL for the next 3-4 days.

[wzrgirl1]

Surprised there aren't more peeps on here now that it is an invest. Afterall, it's the only game in town.

[sunnyday]

That last "wet period" for S Fla was wet for some, but we got not one drop of rain. Rain to the south, rain to the north, nothing here.

[Rainband]

Looks very disorganized

[cycloneye]

You can see the broad low pressure on the Belize radar.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

That last "wet period" for S Fla was wet for some, but we got not one drop of rain. Rain to the south, rain to the north, nothing here.

Well Key Largo got around 10" last time, and has been pouring for a couple hours now.

[Canelaw99]

Here in Homestead, we had major flooding last weekend and it's been raining a good 3-4 hours now. I know the center of the low is headed for the Yuc, but boy, S Fl doesn't need a ton of rain out of the mess lol.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted an hour ago that 95L is getting better organized.