ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
In addition to LarryWx's post, the 00Z CMC, GFDL and Nogaps take the system into CA. The 00Z GFS, HWRF and UKMET take it north thru the Yucatan Channel and possibly NE towards Cuba/Florida. Model divergence is emerging...which should not surprise anybody since there is no well defined LLC at this time with this Invest.
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00Z HWRF remains consistent with a major hurricane over the NW Carribean. The GFDL at this point is very inconsistent with both intensity and direction. Recon heads out today and I expect an upgrade to TD status for the 5pm package. Well also start getting data from recon funneled into the models possibly for the 00z model suite tonight.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I can't see any strong evidence of a circulation on satellite.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Well,now what? 00z Euro almost drops it and more than that,GFS drops it at 06z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Well,now what? 00z Euro almost drops it and more than that,GFS drops it at 06z.
noticed that Luis, gota love the tropics. Will be awaiting the 12z on both for sure!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
New outlook down to 60% - less organized. I'd agree with the less organized part.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I guess the NHC gives weight to the 06z models.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I guess the NHC gives weight to the 06z models.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I do think it has a good chance of becoming a TS, but not until tomorrow or Monday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I do think it has a good chance of becoming a TS, but not until tomorrow or Monday.
Wxman 57 do you think its going to head into Central America and die,or head north towards cuba and S FL?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Well,now what? 00z Euro almost drops it and more than that,GFS drops it at 06z.
To complete the drops, GFDL and HWRF didn't run at 06z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
12z Best Track
AL, 96, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 817W, 25, 1007, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
AL, 96, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 817W, 25, 1007, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Most models now either bring into CA or dont develope it at all.
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The Island of San Andres is now reporting WSW winds, indication that possibly the COC is moving closer to the convection off the east coast of Nica.
METAR text: SKSP 221300Z 24015KT 9999 SCT015 BKN080 25/23 A2975 REDZ
Conditions at: SKSP (SAN ANDRES ISLAN, CO) observed 1300 UTC 22 October 2011
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 8000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 8000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time
METAR text: SKSP 221300Z 24015KT 9999 SCT015 BKN080 25/23 A2975 REDZ
Conditions at: SKSP (SAN ANDRES ISLAN, CO) observed 1300 UTC 22 October 2011
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 8000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 8000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Just visited the models page(s), and the folks there said that most models are dropping this. 

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