ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Starting to get a nice high rain-rate flare NW of the LLC.

Latest AMSU shows core temp profile somewhat compressed.

Let's see if the flare kicks it up to the 12km level.

Nice analysis as usual, GCANE. Think warm core will get to that 12km easily tonight. Also still needs to moisten up more at mid-levels to the east, which I think is happening but at a very slow pace.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models:

[cycloneye]

Look at the loop 96L has made during the last couple of days (moving north at this time) These are the best track positions.

[GCANE]

Starting to get a nice high rain-rate flare NW of the LLC.

Latest AMSU shows core temp profile somewhat compressed.

Let's see if the flare kicks it up to the 12km level.

Nice analysis as usual, GCANE. Think warm core will get to that 12km easily tonight. Also still needs to moisten up more at mid-levels to the east, which I think is happening but at a very slow pace.

Thanks! Will be interesting to see what happens around sun rise at DMAX. Could see some heavy convection start.

200mb vorticity (or lack thereof) looks good. If convection persists, some outflow channels could setup in the next 24 hours.

Might get a nice west Carib spin up.

[bexar]

this season keeps on teasing us, it's very annoying.

[Sanibel]

There's your re-fire. Show time folks...

[Evil Jeremy]

Surprisingly (assuming we indeed have a LLC as it seems), the vorticity isn't that strong:

[psyclone]

it sure is trying. and if it keeps moving north it'll avoid land so it's still worth watching.

[100feettstormsurge]

'94 didn't have any named storms in Oct., but had 2 canes in November. 1 of the 2 was Gordon.

[CrazyC83]

Is there a Recon flight planned?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is there a Recon flight planned?

I believe for tomorrow, yes.

[WeatherEmperor]

Back to Code Red

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN BORDER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not surprising. Based on satellite, I think this is a TD at the moment. Convection is strong, and there is a clear well defined circulation. NHC will probably wait until tomorrow's recon flight to upgrade though.

[WeatherEmperor]

Update:

Tonight's 00Z HWRF just came up. Develops the system and brings it to the NW tip of Cuba and turns ENE towards the Keys/Florida Straights. Other models on the graphic are not yet updated. Will post as soon as they become available:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFDL. A bit more east compared to the previous run.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L



INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 23



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 13.7 81.4 360./ 2.9

6 14.1 81.4 357./ 3.5

12 14.4 81.2 35./ 4.0

18 15.1 81.2 352./ 6.5

24 15.7 81.6 332./ 7.5

30 16.2 81.9 323./ 5.7

36 16.5 82.3 315./ 4.8

42 16.9 82.7 312./ 5.8

48 17.1 83.2 292./ 4.4

54 16.9 83.7 247./ 5.6

60 16.8 84.1 264./ 3.5

66 16.9 84.5 278./ 4.5

72 17.1 85.1 284./ 5.9

78 17.1 85.8 277./ 6.7

84 17.3 86.5 286./ 7.2

90 17.5 87.3 281./ 7.9

96 17.8 87.9 294./ 6.2

102 18.0 88.4 301./ 5.3

108 18.5 88.6 338./ 4.9

114 19.0 88.7 350./ 5.3

120 19.3 88.6 22./ 3.1

126 19.5 88.2 65./ 4.0

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFS, Nogaps, CMC and UKMET keep it very weak and push it into CA. In fact, the UKMET looses it in 24hrs.

So far only the GFDL and HWRF develop it. Let's see what the Euro does...

[cycloneye]

Euro is back!! Although not a hurricane as before.

[Chickenzilla]

Not surprising. Based on satellite, I think this is a TD at the moment. Convection is strong, and there is a clear well defined circulation. NHC will probably wait until tomorrow's recon flight to upgrade though.

I'm a newbie,but I do not think it's a TD now.
My estimate of the center:

[wzrgirl1]

If that indeed is the center then it is well displaced from the deep convection which means it's not there yet. When recon gets out there we will have a better idea.

[wxman57]

It's not a TD presently. MAYBE by late today, more likely tomorrow.