ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

NWS Miami:

THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS
DOES BEGIN TO STALL THIS BOUNDARY OVERHEAD WHILE THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT FURTHER PROGRESSING ESE WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
.WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS PERSIST WITHIN THIS PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE WELL SOUTHWEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.

Just dont see it vortex.... models this morning 06z keep rina in the caribbean.

[gatorcane]

not saying it will happen, just asking a question but how long does it take to evacuate the keys?

At least a day. The tourists are the first to go, then the residents. It's not like those fine people down in the Conch Republic leave for hurricanes anyway.

and this coming weekend is Fantasy Fest in Key West, probably the busiest weekend of the year as far as tourists are concerned.

That would certainly ruin things for a lot of people.

Hopefully it slides by to the south.

[GCANE]

Southern-quad outflow seems to be improving as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[AdamFirst]

Stronger storms go poleward, correct?

So if Rina gains strength it will try to go as far north as the ridge will let it? That could throw a wrench into this whole equation.

[wxman57]

Stronger storms go poleward, correct?

So if Rina gains strength it will try to go as far north as the ridge will let it? That could throw a wrench into this whole equation.

As a general rule of thumb during most of the hurricane season, yes. But when the jet stream dips down to the central to southern Gulf in the fall (as it is now), Poleward-moving hurricanes get turned right/east very sharply (and weaken) once they move out of the Caribbean.

[bob rulz]

Wow, this really seems to have ramped up quickly in the last hour or so. It's got a beautiful structure now. I think it's at least 45 knots, possibly even 50.

[SFLcane]

Stronger storms go poleward, correct?

So if Rina gains strength it will try to go as far north as the ridge will let it? That could throw a wrench into this whole equation.

As a general rule of thumb during most of the hurricane season, yes. But when the jet stream dips down to the central to southern Gulf in the fall (as it is now), Poleward-moving hurricanes get turned right/east very sharply (and weaken) once they move out of the Caribbean.

Those 40-50kt winds aloft in the gulf arent going anywere.

[Bocadude85]

Stronger storms go poleward, correct?

So if Rina gains strength it will try to go as far north as the ridge will let it? That could throw a wrench into this whole equation.

As a general rule of thumb during most of the hurricane season, yes. But when the jet stream dips down to the central to southern Gulf in the fall (as it is now), Poleward-moving hurricanes get turned right/east very sharply (and weaken) once they move out of the Caribbean.

So there really is not any chance of Rina hitting Florida as a hurricane or tropical storm?

[Vortex]

Anyone know what time recon is expected to arrive?

[wxman57]

Those 40-50kt winds aloft in the gulf arent going anywere.

Here's a projected isotach analysis for Friday night. Some quite strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf, all the way to south FL. It will be hard for Rina to reach Florida.

[SFLcane]

Stronger storms go poleward, correct?

So if Rina gains strength it will try to go as far north as the ridge will let it? That could throw a wrench into this whole equation.

As a general rule of thumb during most of the hurricane season, yes. But when the jet stream dips down to the central to southern Gulf in the fall (as it is now), Poleward-moving hurricanes get turned right/east very sharply (and weaken) once they move out of the Caribbean.

So there really is not any chance of Rina hitting Florida as a hurricane or tropical storm?

I dont see it and if it does it will be mess of clouds.

[wxman57]

Anyone know what time recon is expected to arrive?

I just got the first recon message in my email. The plane is just leaving Biloxi. Give it 2-3 hours to reach the NW Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Shuriken]

This is very near the exact spot where Mitch did his ultimate bomb-out.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It has that "look" of a developing storm... im thinking by the next advisory, it could be at 60 mph.

[psyclone]

those upper level winds will just strip away Rina's convection and rip it eastward south of Florida. it really doesn't matter if Rina cranks up to a major down there. once it leaves the reservation it is gonna get demolished.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RINA
IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 320/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...IT SHOULD ALLOW RINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
AND KEEPING RINA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS...BUT NOW SHOWS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH
THE TVCA AND HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

[JonathanBelles]

Hurricane Hunters are up!

[MGC]

It has gotten quite breezy here in the keys overnight. Lots of white caps on the GOM as the wind is out of the NE. Looks like I will be cutting our time short here and leave on Wednesday instead of Saturday. Rina looks very impressive this morning......MGC

[tolakram]

Hey all, if you post what you think Rina might do you must include the S2K disclaimer:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Please reference this sticky post in the TT forum: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101112


Thanks.