ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Rita? Someone got the names messed up LOL

[Rainband]

Wxman57, ain't that a human's shadow. Althougn he doesn't have his spacesuit on....

ET?

I rotated the image 180 degrees to make the shadow upright. That looks like Rina yesterday, with the camera pointed toward the east. That banding in the cirrus extended out in the western periphery of the hurricane yesterday. Looks like someone wearing bell-bottom pants pointing something on a tripod at the Earth.

thats from the inside isn't it???

[Rainband]

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/299921

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262308
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 12 20111026
225830 2054N 08613W 6965 03191 0091 +096 +018 095017 018 023 000 00
225900 2052N 08614W 6965 03188 0087 +097 +012 093018 018 022 000 00
225930 2050N 08615W 6964 03192 0102 +085 +030 088015 016 023 000 00
230000 2048N 08617W 6964 03190 0095 +090 +028 086017 017 024 000 00
230030 2046N 08618W 6965 03190 0090 +094 +021 086016 017 025 000 00
230100 2044N 08619W 6964 03191 0085 +100 +007 094016 017 025 000 00
230130 2042N 08621W 6966 03189 0088 +096 +027 093019 020 025 000 00
230200 2040N 08622W 6966 03187 0091 +094 +020 086018 018 024 000 00
230230 2038N 08623W 6965 03188 0093 +093 +019 091020 021 023 000 00
230300 2036N 08625W 6966 03189 0099 +089 +013 083020 020 023 001 00
230330 2034N 08626W 6967 03188 0105 +083 +029 089023 024 023 001 00
230400 2032N 08628W 6966 03190 0111 +078 +038 081022 023 024 000 00
230430 2029N 08629W 6966 03188 0105 +081 +052 080022 023 025 000 00
230500 2027N 08630W 6964 03192 0099 +085 +057 085020 021 026 000 00
230530 2025N 08632W 6966 03191 0095 +089 +057 094019 020 025 000 00
230600 2023N 08633W 6967 03188 0101 +084 +063 094021 022 025 000 00
230630 2021N 08634W 6966 03191 0098 +088 +049 097020 020 025 000 00
230700 2019N 08636W 6965 03192 0096 +091 +031 101019 019 024 001 00
230730 2017N 08637W 6967 03188 0100 +086 +044 101021 022 027 000 00
230800 2015N 08639W 6965 03190 0096 +090 +034 101022 023 027 000 00

[FireRat]

Looks like it's making it's turn NW based on that latest radar loop.

[NDG]

URNT15 KWBC 262318
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 13 20111026
230830 2013N 08640W 6966 03190 0096 +092 +023 099022 023 027 001 00
230900 2011N 08641W 6967 03187 0098 +088 +035 098023 024 028 001 00
230930 2009N 08643W 6967 03187 0097 +088 +030 096022 023 025 001 00
231000 2007N 08644W 6967 03186 0095 +090 +028 089020 020 028 001 00
231030 2005N 08645W 6968 03184 0092 +091 +013 095022 022 028 000 00
231100 2002N 08647W 6967 03185 0093 +091 +011 096022 023 029 000 00
231130 2000N 08648W 6968 03185 0095 +090 +018 093022 023 028 000 00
231200 1958N 08649W 6966 03186 0098 +087 +019 087023 023 030 001 00
231230 1956N 08651W 6966 03186 0099 +087 +018 085023 023 029 000 00
231300 1954N 08652W 6968 03183 0100 +085 +019 083024 024 029 000 00
231330 1952N 08653W 6968 03183 0098 +086 +024 082025 026 027 001 00
231400 1950N 08655W 6966 03183 0093 +090 +012 084025 026 029 000 00
231430 1948N 08656W 6968 03180 0084 +095 +004 080026 027 028 001 00
231500 1946N 08658W 6969 03178 0087 +092 +006 080028 029 029 001 00
231530 1944N 08659W 6967 03181 0090 +090 +020 081029 030 030 000 00
231600 1942N 08701W 6968 03179 0087 +090 +044 079031 032 030 002 00
231630 1940N 08702W 6969 03177 0089 +088 +023 078031 032 030 000 00
231700 1938N 08704W 6970 03174 0083 +090 +035 076031 032 031 000 00
231730 1936N 08706W 6968 03174 0082 +089 +054 077031 031 031 001 00
231800 1934N 08707W 6969 03176 0082 +094 +016 080032 033 031 000 00

[NDG]

URNT15 KWBC 262328
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 14 20111026
231830 1931N 08708W 6969 03176 0082 +094 +014 075035 035 029 000 00
231900 1929N 08710W 6970 03174 0079 +096 +018 073033 034 029 001 00
231930 1927N 08710W 6970 03176 0080 +095 +025 074031 032 /// /// 03
232000 1925N 08709W 6968 03176 0081 +094 +019 076031 032 025 000 00
232030 1923N 08708W 6970 03173 0080 +093 +029 072030 030 025 000 00
232100 1922N 08706W 6971 03171 0073 +099 +023 073030 031 026 001 00
232130 1920N 08705W 6970 03169 0073 +096 +018 075036 038 027 001 00
232200 1919N 08703W 6973 03164 0082 +089 +006 073040 041 027 000 00
232230 1918N 08702W 6973 03166 0081 +090 +014 073039 041 026 000 00
232300 1916N 08700W 6971 03166 0081 +089 +015 073039 040 025 000 00
232330 1915N 08659W 6973 03164 0084 +087 +018 070039 040 027 001 00
232400 1913N 08657W 6972 03166 0089 +084 +019 069039 039 028 000 00
232430 1912N 08656W 6973 03164 0091 +081 +022 066039 039 028 000 00
232500 1911N 08654W 6972 03164 0095 +077 +026 066040 040 027 001 00
232530 1909N 08653W 6973 03163 0096 +075 +032 066040 040 027 001 00
232600 1908N 08651W 6971 03164 0093 +075 +041 071040 042 028 000 00
232630 1906N 08650W 6970 03164 0089 +077 +047 074042 043 028 000 00
232700 1905N 08649W 6975 03159 0088 +077 +046 073042 042 027 001 00
232730 1903N 08647W 6972 03159 0086 +077 +042 073043 045 028 000 00
232800 1902N 08646W 6971 03159 0080 +079 +059 075043 043 029 000 00

[NDG]

Recon is almost there, is going to penetrate the eye from the NW.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WITHIN THE SCOPE OF BELIZE RADAR...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICAN BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT AT 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA
WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA REACHES THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING RINA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

...EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WITHIN THE SCOPE OF BELIZE RADAR...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[NDG]

URNT15 KWBC 262338
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 15 20111026
232830 1901N 08644W 6976 03154 0069 +086 +073 074039 040 027 000 00
232900 1859N 08643W 6974 03154 0070 +084 +076 073041 043 028 000 00
232930 1858N 08641W 6973 03154 0073 +081 +072 073038 038 030 001 00
233000 1856N 08640W 6973 03154 0067 +084 +076 072039 040 032 001 00
233030 1855N 08638W 6975 03150 0066 +084 +077 067038 039 032 001 00
233100 1853N 08637W 6973 03149 0060 +087 +080 070039 040 033 001 00
233130 1851N 08636W 6975 03145 0044 +098 +081 068036 036 034 001 00
233200 1849N 08636W 6978 03141 0045 +094 +087 064040 043 036 003 00
233230 1847N 08635W 6974 03143 0045 +092 +093 063038 040 037 004 00
233300 1845N 08634W 6972 03141 0027 +103 +099 067040 042 039 005 00
233330 1843N 08633W 6974 03137 0015 +112 +098 063044 045 038 005 00
233400 1841N 08633W 6978 03133 0006 +120 +087 062045 045 039 006 00
233430 1839N 08632W 6978 03134 0014 +113 +094 054045 046 041 007 00
233500 1837N 08631W 6977 03134 0025 +103 +097 048047 048 043 007 00
233530 1836N 08630W 6972 03132 0016 +103 +105 039050 051 046 005 03
233600 1834N 08629W 6972 03128 0010 +104 +105 040049 050 048 008 00
233630 1833N 08627W 6979 03115 9998 +109 +103 044051 054 051 012 00
233700 1831N 08625W 6971 03115 9986 +111 +099 049050 051 054 009 00
233730 1830N 08624W 6971 03107 9984 +103 +100 044058 063 056 016 00
233800 1829N 08622W 6954 03110 9977 +092 //// 043063 065 059 016 01

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262348
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 16 20111026
233830 1828N 08621W 6927 03120 9955 +091 //// 045067 069 063 019 01
233900 1826N 08619W 6930 03108 9923 +103 //// 058070 073 064 016 01
233930 1825N 08618W 6937 03083 9903 +106 //// 065061 069 066 012 05
234000 1823N 08616W 6968 03031 9891 +107 +104 060053 054 072 008 00
234030 1822N 08615W 6976 03007 9858 +121 +108 053047 052 074 007 00
234100 1820N 08614W 6982 02983 9826 +135 +117 029037 040 061 007 00
234130 1818N 08612W 6964 02998 9787 +165 +091 018023 028 029 001 03
234200 1818N 08610W 6959 03002 9769 +180 +077 070002 010 026 000 03
234230 1817N 08608W 6971 02988 9773 +176 +080 192017 021 023 000 03
234300 1815N 08607W 6969 02997 9785 +173 +081 207030 034 021 000 00
234330 1814N 08605W 6971 03006 9796 +174 +079 208041 045 025 002 00
234400 1813N 08603W 6966 03029 9815 +172 +090 222057 062 030 001 00
234430 1811N 08602W 6971 03043 9847 +166 +062 216067 073 039 003 00
234500 1810N 08600W 6955 03081 9898 +136 +067 221069 071 045 002 00
234530 1809N 08559W 6962 03078 9912 +130 +075 231071 072 054 004 00
234600 1807N 08557W 6976 03070 9926 +129 +078 234066 069 055 003 00
234630 1806N 08556W 6953 03121 9961 +117 +083 225054 058 053 002 00
234700 1804N 08554W 6956 03132 9970 +124 +074 217046 049 051 002 00
234730 1803N 08552W 6942 03157 9977 +127 +056 205043 045 048 001 00
234800 1801N 08551W 6953 03152 9993 +123 +046 207046 047 045 002 00

[NDG]

Recon finds that she is mainting her strength tonight, she has a small area of hurricane force winds though.
There is an unflagged estimated 85mph surface winds found.

234000 1823N 08616W 6968 03031 9891 +107 +104 060053 054 072 008 00
234030 1822N 08615W 6976 03007 9858 +121 +108 053047 052 074 007 00
234100 1820N 08614W 6982 02983 9826 +135 +117 029037 040 061 007 00
234130 1818N 08612W 6964 02998 9787 +165 +091 018023 028 029 001 03
234200 1818N 08610W 6959 03002 9769 +180 +077 070002 010 026 000 03
234230 1817N 08608W 6971 02988 9773 +176 +080 192017 021 023 000 03
234300 1815N 08607W 6969 02997 9785 +173 +081 207030 034 021 000 00
234330 1814N 08605W 6971 03006 9796 +174 +079 208041 045 025 002 00
234400 1813N 08603W 6966 03029 9815 +172 +090 222057 062 030 001 00
234430 1811N 08602W 6971 03043 9847 +166 +062 216067 073 039 003 00
234500 1810N 08600W 6955 03081 9898 +136 +067 221069 071 045 002 00

[Rainband]

why does the dry air in the gulf appear to be retreating north???

[AdamFirst]

why does the dry air in the gulf appear to be retreating north???

I noticed this myself. Looks to be clearing a path.

Care to comment, pro mets?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Rainband]

why does the dry air in the gulf appear to be retreating north???

I noticed this myself. Looks to be clearing a path.

Care to comment, pro mets?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

I think this storm is going straight into the Yucatan

[NDG]

I am sure that it has to do with the retreating mid level ridge and the uncoming trough that it is lifting some moisture in from the tropics along with Rina.
Also windshear has been retreating, now down to 25-40 knots in the SE GOM versus 40-60 knots from 24 hrs ago.

[tobol.7uno]

[wxman57]

why does the dry air in the gulf appear to be retreating north???

Mid to upper-level winds in the region are out of the south to the west of the ridge. That's why Rina is turning northward tonight:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

[Rainband]

I am sure that it has to do with the retreating mid level ridge and the uncoming trough that it is lifting some moisture in from the tropics along with Rina.
Also windshear has been retreating, now down to 25-40 knots in the SE GOM versus 40-60 knots from 24 hrs ago.

looking at the pressures seems to me the easier route for her is going to be west. Time will tell