ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rainband]

why does the dry air in the gulf appear to be retreating north???

Mid to upper-level winds in the region are out of the south to the west of the ridge. That's why Rina is turning northward tonight:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

how long before that changes. It may impact the forecast????

[tobol.7uno]

[shortwave]

wonder if partial ingestion of 97l has given her a brief extension

[NDG]

I am sure that it has to do with the retreating mid level ridge and the uncoming trough that it is lifting some moisture in from the tropics along with Rina.
Also windshear has been retreating, now down to 25-40 knots in the SE GOM versus 40-60 knots from 24 hrs ago.

looking at the pressures seems to me the easier route for her is going to be west. Time will tell

Hurricanes don't get steered by surface features.

[Rainband]

I am sure that it has to do with the retreating mid level ridge and the uncoming trough that it is lifting some moisture in from the tropics along with Rina.
Also windshear has been retreating, now down to 25-40 knots in the SE GOM versus 40-60 knots from 24 hrs ago.

looking at the pressures seems to me the easier route for her is going to be west. Time will tell

Hurricanes don't get steered by surface features.

I mean the conditions not BP lol I wouldn't have almost 20,000 posts if I didn't know that.

[NDG]

Hurricanes don't get steered by surface features.

I mean the conditions not BP lol I wouldn't have almost 20,000 posts if I didn't know that.

[/quote]

Sorry, I misunderstood your question

[Rainband]

Hurricanes don't get steered by surface features.

I mean the conditions not BP lol I wouldn't have almost 20,000 posts if I didn't know that.

Sorry, I misunderstood your question [/quote] your alright

[FireRat]

This has been a peculiar season in which many storms moving poleward intensified dramatically and surpassed the intensity forecasts, I am curious if Rina could do such a thing as it heads north and northeast. I know the chances are nearly 0 percent based on the models, but I wanted to ask the pro mets if there was a chance this storm would accelerate and strengthen NE as it goes along with the shear, rather than crawl NE and weaken?

I'd love to know the dynamics of this situation, will the shear be so strong that even if it accelerated northeast ahead of the trough, it gets torn to shreds? After what I saw happen with Ophelia, this is why I'm a bit concerned.

[tobol.7uno]

[NDG]

URNT15 KWBC 270048
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 22 20111027
003830 1849N 08548W 6963 03163 0045 +098 +091 133049 049 039 001 00
003900 1848N 08549W 6963 03161 0045 +096 +086 131051 052 042 003 00
003930 1846N 08551W 6962 03159 0038 +098 +090 134052 053 044 001 00
004000 1845N 08552W 6962 03153 0031 +100 +088 137053 053 046 004 00
004030 1843N 08554W 6958 03153 0035 +092 +091 137055 057 047 004 00
004100 1842N 08555W 6960 03146 0033 +089 +090 134056 057 049 005 00
004130 1840N 08557W 6956 03145 0016 +098 +095 134054 055 049 005 00
004200 1839N 08558W 6963 03132 0014 +095 +090 131058 060 050 006 00
004230 1837N 08600W 6966 03119 9992 +105 +083 124055 058 053 012 00
004300 1836N 08602W 6959 03113 9971 +110 +081 132063 065 062 001 00
004330 1834N 08603W 6967 03087 9940 +121 +079 131061 062 063 002 00
004400 1833N 08605W 6961 03079 9925 +118 +083 125063 065 065 003 00
004430 1831N 08606W 6961 03064 9909 +113 +116 133069 072 070 005 00
004500 1830N 08608W 6946 03069 9879 +123 //// 126062 064 071 012 01
004530 1828N 08609W 6946 03051 9860 +122 //// 125053 056 068 009 01
004600 1827N 08611W 6963 03012 9834 +131 +122 121037 043 071 007 00
004630 1825N 08612W 6968 03001 9812 +146 +114 119025 028 049 003 00
004700 1824N 08614W 6965 03002 9801 +155 +107 097019 023 036 002 00
004730 1822N 08615W 6949 03022 9801 +155 +100 039003 008 025 001 00
004800 1820N 08617W 6963 03009 9809 +154 +098 320018 024 033 002 00

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KWBC 270058
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 23 20111027
004830 1819N 08619W 6969 03015 9823 +151 +111 319028 032 071 011 03
004900 1817N 08620W 6962 03036 9837 +149 +123 303043 053 082 013 00
004930 1816N 08621W 6999 03010 9839 +169 +114 314060 063 077 020 00
005000 1814N 08623W 6976 03062 9888 +151 +090 312062 069 071 014 03
005030 1813N 08624W 6976 03078 9914 +145 +062 308047 049 067 009 03
005100 1811N 08626W 6969 03096 9919 +152 +046 303040 042 057 003 00
005130 1810N 08627W 6954 03121 9923 +154 +033 298040 040 054 002 00
005200 1809N 08629W 6952 03128 9950 +135 +052 309039 041 050 001 00
005230 1807N 08630W 6954 03132 9951 +141 +045 310037 038 049 001 00
005300 1806N 08632W 6954 03138 9953 +145 +035 314034 035 048 002 00
005330 1804N 08634W 6954 03140 9972 +132 +042 320033 034 046 000 00
005400 1803N 08635W 6954 03147 9998 +114 +062 324037 039 045 001 00
005430 1801N 08637W 6950 03156 0001 +115 +063 327034 034 044 001 00
005500 1759N 08639W 6954 03154 9999 +119 +067 332036 037 041 003 00
005530 1758N 08640W 6954 03160 0015 +109 +080 326036 037 040 004 00
005600 1756N 08642W 6954 03166 0031 +102 +092 326036 037 037 003 00
005630 1754N 08644W 6954 03172 0036 +101 +103 336039 040 036 004 00
005700 1753N 08645W 6953 03177 0040 +101 +101 343041 043 036 012 00
005730 1751N 08647W 6957 03171 0031 +109 +086 348038 042 036 005 00
005800 1749N 08648W 6950 03182 0042 +103 +092 347032 033 035 001 00

[CrazyC83]

This has been a peculiar season in which many storms moving poleward intensified dramatically and surpassed the intensity forecasts, I am curious if Rina could do such a thing as it heads north and northeast. I know the chances are nearly 0 percent based on the models, but I wanted to ask the pro mets if there was a chance this storm would accelerate and strengthen NE as it goes along with the shear, rather than crawl NE and weaken?

I'd love to know the dynamics of this situation, will the shear be so strong that even if it accelerated northeast ahead of the trough, it gets torn to shreds? After what I saw happen with Ophelia, this is why I'm a bit concerned.

Omar and Paloma in 2008 and Ida in 2009 all used the trough to their advantage until their direction changed then were torn to shreds. Late season storms are even more unpredictable.

[tobol.7uno]

[NDG]

There's an unflagged 94mph wind found in the SW quadrant of the storm during the latest penetration.

004900 1817N 08620W 6962 03036 9837 +149 +123 303043 053 082 013 00
004930 1816N 08621W 6999 03010 9839 +169 +114 314060 063 077 020 00

[CrazyC83]

There's an unflagged 94mph wind found in the SW quadrant of the storm during the latest penetration.

004900 1817N 08620W 6962 03036 9837 +149 +123 303043 053 082 013 00
004930 1816N 08621W 6999 03010 9839 +169 +114 314060 063 077 020 00

Based on that, the intensity should be raised back to 80 kt. I'd want to see higher before going back to Cat 2. It probably bottomed out at 70 kt this afternoon, might be on a restrengthening trend.

[NDG]

There's an unflagged 94mph wind found in the SW quadrant of the storm during the latest penetration.

004900 1817N 08620W 6962 03036 9837 +149 +123 303043 053 082 013 00
004930 1816N 08621W 6999 03010 9839 +169 +114 314060 063 077 020 00

Based on that, the intensity should be raised back to 80 kt. I'd want to see higher before going back to Cat 2. It probably bottomed out at 70 kt this afternoon, might be on a restrengthening trend.

I am not sure if they will, flight level winds have been only in the low 70 knots at the most.

[AdamFirst]

Reports of Rina's demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'd hold at 85 though.

It's got at least 36 hours of hurricane left in her.

[psyclone]

Reports of Rina's demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'd hold at 85 though.

It's got at least 36 hours of hurricane left in her.

the center does look symmetrical and quite impressive on that Belize radar loop.

[CrazyC83]

Even the NHC is confused:

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5.

No, that is not a 2005 flashback. That was a part of the 4 pm discussion.

[boca]

Even the NHC is confused:

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5.

No, that is not a 2005 flashback. That was a part of the 4 pm discussion.

Wasn't that turn expected, so how is the NHC confused?