Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
That's a gorgeous picture macrocane
Apparently there has been lots of flooding in Trinidad from a severe thunderstorm.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml
Apparently there has been lots of flooding in Trinidad from a severe thunderstorm.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml
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Too many hurricanes to remember
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
FXCA62 TJSJ 210110 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
910 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY AND
SHOWERY WX THROUGH MON. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH UNSETTLED WX POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG S/W ENERGY DIVING
TOWARD THE AREA WITH A MOISTURE GRADIENT/JET SEGMENT EVIDENT.
STRENGTHENING TRADES AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH DIVING SHORTHWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
NMRS SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH K INDEX
CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 AND SHOWALTER INDEX BECOMING MORE NEGATIVE.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO BEEN COOLING RECENTLY WITH TOPS TO -21C WITH
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF DORADO. TOPS TO -30C ALSO SEEN FARTHER
UPSTREAM NORTH OF BUOY 41043. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIB WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.
SOME LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FVRBL
UPSLOPE IN NE FLOW LIKE EL YUNQUE AND THE NRN SLOPES. ANOTHER
AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS IS AROUND ST CROIX WHERE GFS SHOWS
A SFC CONVERGENCE BDRY THERE.
MONDAY...S/W ENERGY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH TRADES FCST TO
WEAKEN AND INSTABILITY TO WANE. WHILE IT WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
MON NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FCST TO DECREASE SHARPLY. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL NE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES.
THINGS IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR TUE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
GIVING PRESENCE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. FAIR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF PR ON FRI AND A BROAD
LOW PRES FORMING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND A FRONTAL BDRY
STALLING JUST NORTH OF 20N. A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO TELL WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND BE ABLE TO PULL DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA AS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS
SCENARIO WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL SIG
RAINFALL EVENT AT THE END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...
TIST...TISX AND TNCM. WINDS SFC TO FL200 WILL BE MAINLY NE AT 15
TO 25 KTS...HOWEVER TNCM AND TKPK MAY OBSERVE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 85 79 85 / 70 70 50 20
STT 79 86 79 86 / 70 70 40 20
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
910 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY AND
SHOWERY WX THROUGH MON. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH UNSETTLED WX POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG S/W ENERGY DIVING
TOWARD THE AREA WITH A MOISTURE GRADIENT/JET SEGMENT EVIDENT.
STRENGTHENING TRADES AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH DIVING SHORTHWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
NMRS SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH K INDEX
CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 AND SHOWALTER INDEX BECOMING MORE NEGATIVE.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO BEEN COOLING RECENTLY WITH TOPS TO -21C WITH
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF DORADO. TOPS TO -30C ALSO SEEN FARTHER
UPSTREAM NORTH OF BUOY 41043. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIB WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI.
SOME LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FVRBL
UPSLOPE IN NE FLOW LIKE EL YUNQUE AND THE NRN SLOPES. ANOTHER
AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS IS AROUND ST CROIX WHERE GFS SHOWS
A SFC CONVERGENCE BDRY THERE.
MONDAY...S/W ENERGY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH TRADES FCST TO
WEAKEN AND INSTABILITY TO WANE. WHILE IT WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
MON NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FCST TO DECREASE SHARPLY. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL NE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES.
THINGS IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR TUE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
GIVING PRESENCE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. FAIR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF PR ON FRI AND A BROAD
LOW PRES FORMING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND A FRONTAL BDRY
STALLING JUST NORTH OF 20N. A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO TELL WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND BE ABLE TO PULL DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA AS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS
SCENARIO WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL SIG
RAINFALL EVENT AT THE END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...
TIST...TISX AND TNCM. WINDS SFC TO FL200 WILL BE MAINLY NE AT 15
TO 25 KTS...HOWEVER TNCM AND TKPK MAY OBSERVE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 85 79 85 / 70 70 50 20
STT 79 86 79 86 / 70 70 40 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Is still early to know how the long thanksgiving weekend will be,but there are hints of a rainy one so stay tuned.
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON NOV 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A RATHER DEEP LAYERED...MOIST
LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN RESUME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
AGAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE IN BANDS AND PATCHES
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAKING FOR UNSETTLED INTERVALS WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ADDITIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPANDING MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIMITED.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT AN "OVERALL" GENERALLY FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME AGAIN. IT MAY TURN
UNSETTLED AGAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT THE WEATHER SCENARIO
FOR THAT TIME FRAME IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME OF THESE PASSING SHWRS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS
THEY PASS BY. ATTM ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT
TJMZ AND TJPS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NE FROM SFC TO 20
KFT AT 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...BASED ON DATA FROM BUOY 41053 SHOWING 8 TO 9 FOOT
SWELLS AT 9 TO 11 SECONDS...WE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE ALL OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 60 50 20 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 60 40 20 20
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON NOV 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A RATHER DEEP LAYERED...MOIST
LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN RESUME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
AGAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE IN BANDS AND PATCHES
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAKING FOR UNSETTLED INTERVALS WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ADDITIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPANDING MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIMITED.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT AN "OVERALL" GENERALLY FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME AGAIN. IT MAY TURN
UNSETTLED AGAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT THE WEATHER SCENARIO
FOR THAT TIME FRAME IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME OF THESE PASSING SHWRS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS
THEY PASS BY. ATTM ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT
TJMZ AND TJPS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NE FROM SFC TO 20
KFT AT 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...BASED ON DATA FROM BUOY 41053 SHOWING 8 TO 9 FOOT
SWELLS AT 9 TO 11 SECONDS...WE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE ALL OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 60 50 20 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 60 40 20 20
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON NOV 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TAIL OF THE JET...MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF A LOW PRESSURE...ALMOST 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
EASTERN END OF HISPANIOLA...WILL CROSS OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OUT OF A LOW IN THE ATLANTIC WILL SINK SOUTHEAST AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL COVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LAYERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY DRY AIR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28 NORTH 51 WEST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING GRADIENTS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TO RELAX. A TROUGH TRAILING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
THAT ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE ANOTHER LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MOISTURE AT LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT BUT DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST WITH DIFFICULTY. ALTHOUGH
THE MIMIC PRODUCT INDICATES MUCH LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING OUR
WAY...LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION THE TAIL OF A WEAK JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AID DYNAMICS. THEREFORE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...WINDS
RELAX SOMEWHAT AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO LESSEN SOME MORE...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST OR EVEN EAST SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT ABOUT THIS. THIS WILL SHIFT
SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS ANOTHER VERY LARGE UPPER
TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WILL
INCREASE WHEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THERE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SOME QUICK PASSING SHWRS PRODUCE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG/VSBY
AT MANY TAF SITES. GUSTY CONDS WITH UP TO 25 KTS IN SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE PLATEAUED AT THE BUOYS BUT ARE REMAINING NEAR
10 FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND OVER 7 FEET AT BUOY 41053. THEREFORE
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM AST TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY EXPECT ALL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 60 20 20 20
STT 75 87 77 86 / 40 20 20 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON NOV 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TAIL OF THE JET...MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF A LOW PRESSURE...ALMOST 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
EASTERN END OF HISPANIOLA...WILL CROSS OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SATURDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OUT OF A LOW IN THE ATLANTIC WILL SINK SOUTHEAST AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL COVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LAYERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY DRY AIR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28 NORTH 51 WEST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING GRADIENTS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TO RELAX. A TROUGH TRAILING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
THAT ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE ANOTHER LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MOISTURE AT LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT BUT DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST WITH DIFFICULTY. ALTHOUGH
THE MIMIC PRODUCT INDICATES MUCH LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING OUR
WAY...LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION THE TAIL OF A WEAK JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AID DYNAMICS. THEREFORE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...WINDS
RELAX SOMEWHAT AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO LESSEN SOME MORE...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST OR EVEN EAST SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT ABOUT THIS. THIS WILL SHIFT
SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS ANOTHER VERY LARGE UPPER
TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WILL
INCREASE WHEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THERE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SOME QUICK PASSING SHWRS PRODUCE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG/VSBY
AT MANY TAF SITES. GUSTY CONDS WITH UP TO 25 KTS IN SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE PLATEAUED AT THE BUOYS BUT ARE REMAINING NEAR
10 FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND OVER 7 FEET AT BUOY 41053. THEREFORE
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM AST TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY EXPECT ALL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 60 20 20 20
STT 75 87 77 86 / 40 20 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Hi, It seems that Central America is going to have a very cold and windy end of the month as the models have been consistetly showing a very strong high over North and Central America, if you look closely the GFS has six isobars over Central America, that will produce very strong winds. These are the 12 runs of the GFS and Euro at 162 h 168h respectively:


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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST MON NOV 21 2011
.UPDATE...AIR ABOVE 10 KFT IS DRY AND GETTING DRIER IN SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY...AS CONFIRMED BY WATER VAPOR
LOOPS. 18Z NAM USES THE SUBSIDENCE TO MIX WELL INTO THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY IT OFF TOO. GFS IS MORE SKEPTICAL IN THIS
SCENARIO. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM (N AND NE OF LOCAL
ISLANDS) AS SHOWN ON SJU RADAR AND 3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE THE GFS
SEEMS MORE BELIEVABLE...AND THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NORMALLY
NECESSARY TO MODIFY THE MARINE LAYER THAT MUCH.
SO HAVE KEPT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST/EAST PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALMOST AS INHERITED. BUT KNOCKED OUT
SHOWERS AND REDUCED CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PR WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW TO GET MUCH PAST THE CORDILLERA CREST.
THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THERE ARE ENOUGH OF THEM TO KEEP A LOT IN THE FORECAST.
CHANGES IN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR VERY SLOWLY TONIGHT AS 7
FEET IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT BUOYS NEAR THE NORTH COASTS AND
SURF REMAINS QUITE HIGH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
FCST PRD. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING LOW LVL CLDS WITH EMBEDDED PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREAS IN THE DOMINANT NE TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIG/VSBY MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF
PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BRIEF WND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST TJSJ 00Z UPPER AIR DATA
SUGGEST WINDS FM NE BTW 15-20 KTS BLO 20 KFT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST MON NOV 21 2011
.UPDATE...AIR ABOVE 10 KFT IS DRY AND GETTING DRIER IN SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY...AS CONFIRMED BY WATER VAPOR
LOOPS. 18Z NAM USES THE SUBSIDENCE TO MIX WELL INTO THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY IT OFF TOO. GFS IS MORE SKEPTICAL IN THIS
SCENARIO. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM (N AND NE OF LOCAL
ISLANDS) AS SHOWN ON SJU RADAR AND 3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE THE GFS
SEEMS MORE BELIEVABLE...AND THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NORMALLY
NECESSARY TO MODIFY THE MARINE LAYER THAT MUCH.
SO HAVE KEPT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST/EAST PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALMOST AS INHERITED. BUT KNOCKED OUT
SHOWERS AND REDUCED CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PR WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW TO GET MUCH PAST THE CORDILLERA CREST.
THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THERE ARE ENOUGH OF THEM TO KEEP A LOT IN THE FORECAST.
CHANGES IN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR VERY SLOWLY TONIGHT AS 7
FEET IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT BUOYS NEAR THE NORTH COASTS AND
SURF REMAINS QUITE HIGH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
FCST PRD. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING LOW LVL CLDS WITH EMBEDDED PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREAS IN THE DOMINANT NE TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIG/VSBY MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF
PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BRIEF WND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST TJSJ 00Z UPPER AIR DATA
SUGGEST WINDS FM NE BTW 15-20 KTS BLO 20 KFT.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. PASSING TRADE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N51W.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST...ALLOWING GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO RELAX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF SHOWERY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN ON THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AND
AFFECT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE SAINT THOMAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY CAUSING
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL REPLACE IT...STABILIZING
OUR AIRMASS UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST BY MIDWEEK...WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MIGRATES TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL IN ALL...WE EXPECT TRADE WIND
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING LOW LVL CLDS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG/VSBY MAINLY ALONG THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE PASSING
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...BASED ON DATA FROM BUOY 41053 SHOWING 7 TO 9 FOOT
SWELLS AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS...WE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 84 75 / 40 20 20 20
STT 86 76 86 77 / 40 20 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. PASSING TRADE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N51W.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST...ALLOWING GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO RELAX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF SHOWERY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN ON THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AND
AFFECT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE SAINT THOMAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY CAUSING
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL REPLACE IT...STABILIZING
OUR AIRMASS UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST BY MIDWEEK...WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MIGRATES TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL IN ALL...WE EXPECT TRADE WIND
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT
GENERALLY LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING LOW LVL CLDS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG/VSBY MAINLY ALONG THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE PASSING
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...BASED ON DATA FROM BUOY 41053 SHOWING 7 TO 9 FOOT
SWELLS AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS...WE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 84 75 / 40 20 20 20
STT 86 76 86 77 / 40 20 30 30
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN UNDER A SUBSIDENT CAP AT THE MID LEVELS UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK THEREFORE...THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT SEEMS THAT OUR LOCAL AREA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MODEL SHOWS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
23/22Z. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING LOW CLDS WITH SCT TO NMRS PASSING
SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SHRAS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY ON ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT TJPS AND TJMZ WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE PASSING SHOWERS. SHRAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 23/14Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 23/04Z.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO DATA FROM BUOY 41043 NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WHICH WAS REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET WITH AN 11 SECOND
PERIOD. ALSO...BUOYS IN SAN JUAN AND RINCON REPORTED WAVES OF 7
FEET WITH 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. ALSO...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AND WEDNESDAY AT NOON FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 85 / 40 40 20 10
STT 76 86 77 86 / 30 30 30 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN UNDER A SUBSIDENT CAP AT THE MID LEVELS UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK THEREFORE...THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT SEEMS THAT OUR LOCAL AREA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MODEL SHOWS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
23/22Z. HOWEVER QUICK PASSING LOW CLDS WITH SCT TO NMRS PASSING
SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SHRAS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY ON ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT TJPS AND TJMZ WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE PASSING SHOWERS. SHRAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 23/14Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 23/04Z.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO DATA FROM BUOY 41043 NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WHICH WAS REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET WITH AN 11 SECOND
PERIOD. ALSO...BUOYS IN SAN JUAN AND RINCON REPORTED WAVES OF 7
FEET WITH 10 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. ALSO...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AND WEDNESDAY AT NOON FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 85 / 40 40 20 10
STT 76 86 77 86 / 30 30 30 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
Happy Thanksgiving to all in the Caribbean and Central America.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC TO THE GREATER ANTILLES OVR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIB
COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z TODAY AS
MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH VERY MINIMAL
SHRA ACTIVITY XPCD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY IS XPCD FOR
FRI AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST AND ANOTHER TROF BEGINS TO DIG TOWARD
THE AREA.
FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
AS MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROF FCST TO DIG INTO THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST AMPLIFIED
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST NORTH OF PR. WHAT
LOOKS CERTAIN IS THAT VERY DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT GREATER THAN
2.25 INCHES WILL POOL JUST SOUTH OF PR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SWRN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS DEEP
MOISTURE CAN LIFT NORTH AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. THIS WOULD DEPEND
ON DEPTH AND LOCATION OF UPPER TROF WHICH STILL NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED BY GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ENTIRE PERIOD. LOW CLDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PRDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY AT TAF SITES
ALONG N COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND SRN VI...AS WELL AS EN ROUTE BTW PR
AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS TO REMAIN MORE NMRS ALONG CARIB OFF
SHORE WATERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. LATEST TJSJ 00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS WNDS FM ENE BTW 15-25 KTS BLO 25 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS XPCD TO IMPROVE OVR THE NEXT 12 HRS WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 7 FT BY TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN ON SUN AS ANOTHER
GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 85 78 / 10 20 10 10
STT 87 78 86 78 / 10 20 10 20
Happy Thanksgiving to all in the Caribbean and Central America.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC TO THE GREATER ANTILLES OVR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIB
COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z TODAY AS
MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH VERY MINIMAL
SHRA ACTIVITY XPCD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY IS XPCD FOR
FRI AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST AND ANOTHER TROF BEGINS TO DIG TOWARD
THE AREA.
FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
AS MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROF FCST TO DIG INTO THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST AMPLIFIED
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST NORTH OF PR. WHAT
LOOKS CERTAIN IS THAT VERY DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT GREATER THAN
2.25 INCHES WILL POOL JUST SOUTH OF PR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SWRN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS DEEP
MOISTURE CAN LIFT NORTH AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. THIS WOULD DEPEND
ON DEPTH AND LOCATION OF UPPER TROF WHICH STILL NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED BY GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ENTIRE PERIOD. LOW CLDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PRDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY AT TAF SITES
ALONG N COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND SRN VI...AS WELL AS EN ROUTE BTW PR
AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS TO REMAIN MORE NMRS ALONG CARIB OFF
SHORE WATERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. LATEST TJSJ 00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS WNDS FM ENE BTW 15-25 KTS BLO 25 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS XPCD TO IMPROVE OVR THE NEXT 12 HRS WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 7 FT BY TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN ON SUN AS ANOTHER
GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 85 78 / 10 20 10 10
STT 87 78 86 78 / 10 20 10 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:
-Near normal lows in all the countries, only Tegucigalpa in Honduras had a cooler than normal minimum temp.
-Near normal highs in the whole region.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.7°C (38.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
A new cold surge had begun today and very cold minimum temperatures were registered before dawn in some places, I will post those observations tomorrow.
-Near normal lows in all the countries, only Tegucigalpa in Honduras had a cooler than normal minimum temp.
-Near normal highs in the whole region.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.7°C (38.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
A new cold surge had begun today and very cold minimum temperatures were registered before dawn in some places, I will post those observations tomorrow.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AND THE TAIL OF A BRANCH OF
THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND APPROACH PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE ON
MONDAY NIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH IS WEAKENED BY THE THE PASSAGE OF A LOW AND TRAILING
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE ATLANTIC...ALBEIT NORTH OF 40 DEGREES
NORTH...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC FOR THE MOST PART
FROM THE CENTER OF THE ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
DEVELOPING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL
FLOW...EVEN IF SURFACE WINDS DO TEND TO REMAIN EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER PUERTO RICO BUT
MOISTURE HAS STALLED OVER THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX.
ALSO AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS HAVE
SPAWNED HEAVY SHOWERS. TOPS AT 23/1830Z WERE NO HIGHER THAN 23
KFT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF VARY SOMEWHAT AS TO EXACTLY WHERE
THIS MOISTURE WILL GO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM BROUGHT
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE GFS
BRINGS SOME IN OVERNIGHT BUT IS MUCH DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN INHERITED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS BEFORE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOMEWHAT MOIST FLOW
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY RAPIDLY VARYING DIVERGENCE FIELD AT 250
MB FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE WETTER ON MONDAY...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO COME UP THEN...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER FOR BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT BEFORE SHIFTING WETTER...AS THIS INVOLVES BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
OVERALL THIS LEAVES A FAIRLY FAVORABLE HOLIDAY FORECAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERALL AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE PASSING VCSH. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST
TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL
SATURDAY AS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST THREE
DAYS. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET WILL ENTER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BOOST SEAS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. CARIBBEAN SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 87 77 86 / 30 30 30 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AND THE TAIL OF A BRANCH OF
THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND APPROACH PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE ON
MONDAY NIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH IS WEAKENED BY THE THE PASSAGE OF A LOW AND TRAILING
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE ATLANTIC...ALBEIT NORTH OF 40 DEGREES
NORTH...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC FOR THE MOST PART
FROM THE CENTER OF THE ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
DEVELOPING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL
FLOW...EVEN IF SURFACE WINDS DO TEND TO REMAIN EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER PUERTO RICO BUT
MOISTURE HAS STALLED OVER THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX.
ALSO AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS HAVE
SPAWNED HEAVY SHOWERS. TOPS AT 23/1830Z WERE NO HIGHER THAN 23
KFT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF VARY SOMEWHAT AS TO EXACTLY WHERE
THIS MOISTURE WILL GO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM BROUGHT
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE GFS
BRINGS SOME IN OVERNIGHT BUT IS MUCH DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN INHERITED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS BEFORE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOMEWHAT MOIST FLOW
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY RAPIDLY VARYING DIVERGENCE FIELD AT 250
MB FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE WETTER ON MONDAY...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO COME UP THEN...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER FOR BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT BEFORE SHIFTING WETTER...AS THIS INVOLVES BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
OVERALL THIS LEAVES A FAIRLY FAVORABLE HOLIDAY FORECAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERALL AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE PASSING VCSH. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST
TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL
SATURDAY AS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST THREE
DAYS. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET WILL ENTER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BOOST SEAS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. CARIBBEAN SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 87 77 86 / 30 30 30 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning on this thanksgiving day.Pat close attention to the last paragrafh of the discussion because it could be a wet next few days after Saturday for many in the Eastern Caribbean.
Happy Thanksgiving day to all.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WEEKEND AND INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR TODAY THAN YDAY WITH K INDEX CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO -12 OBSERVED ON THE 00Z RAOB. THE 00Z HI-
RES PR3KM NAM RUN EVEN SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION BECOMING DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER ACROSS THE SW SLOPES. THE LATEST GOES
SOUNDER DATA SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE
GFS FORECAST. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDED THUNDER FOR THE SW. AIR LOOKS MORE STABLE FOR
FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW AND VERY SLOW MOVING.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO SPLIT
OFF WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW NOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ON
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT ERN PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ON THE FVBRL RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO SUPPORT A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON. FOR THE REST OF
PR...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SIG RAINFALL WOULD BE MON
AND TUE AS INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CDFNT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC WITH THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING FOR SVRL DAYS NORTH OF COLOMBIA BEFORE TAKING IT
WWD TOWARD CNTRL AMERICA. BOTTOMLINE IS...THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI AND THE ERN
THIRD OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC FOR AMZ710 TODAY. SEAS XPCD TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SAFE OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT CARIB WATERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STORMY WITH RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 83 78 / 20 20 20 50
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 30
Happy Thanksgiving day to all.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WEEKEND AND INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR TODAY THAN YDAY WITH K INDEX CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO -12 OBSERVED ON THE 00Z RAOB. THE 00Z HI-
RES PR3KM NAM RUN EVEN SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION BECOMING DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER ACROSS THE SW SLOPES. THE LATEST GOES
SOUNDER DATA SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE
GFS FORECAST. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDED THUNDER FOR THE SW. AIR LOOKS MORE STABLE FOR
FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW AND VERY SLOW MOVING.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO SPLIT
OFF WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW NOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ON
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT ERN PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ON THE FVBRL RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO SUPPORT A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON. FOR THE REST OF
PR...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SIG RAINFALL WOULD BE MON
AND TUE AS INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CDFNT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC WITH THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING FOR SVRL DAYS NORTH OF COLOMBIA BEFORE TAKING IT
WWD TOWARD CNTRL AMERICA. BOTTOMLINE IS...THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI AND THE ERN
THIRD OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC FOR AMZ710 TODAY. SEAS XPCD TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SAFE OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT CARIB WATERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STORMY WITH RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 83 78 / 20 20 20 50
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 30
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
cycloneye wrote:Good morning on this thanksgiving day.Pat close attention to the last paragrafh of the discussion because it could be a wet next few days after Saturday for many in the Eastern Caribbean.
Happy Thanksgiving day to all.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WEEKEND AND INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR TODAY THAN YDAY WITH K INDEX CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO -12 OBSERVED ON THE 00Z RAOB. THE 00Z HI-
RES PR3KM NAM RUN EVEN SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION BECOMING DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER ACROSS THE SW SLOPES. THE LATEST GOES
SOUNDER DATA SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE
GFS FORECAST. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDED THUNDER FOR THE SW. AIR LOOKS MORE STABLE FOR
FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW AND VERY SLOW MOVING.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO SPLIT
OFF WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW NOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ON
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT ERN PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ON THE FVBRL RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO SUPPORT A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON. FOR THE REST OF
PR...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SIG RAINFALL WOULD BE MON
AND TUE AS INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CDFNT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC WITH THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING FOR SVRL DAYS NORTH OF COLOMBIA BEFORE TAKING IT
WWD TOWARD CNTRL AMERICA. BOTTOMLINE IS...THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI AND THE ERN
THIRD OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC FOR AMZ710 TODAY. SEAS XPCD TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SAFE OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT CARIB WATERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STORMY WITH RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 83 78 / 20 20 20 50
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 30
Thanks for keep us informed Cycloneye. We have to follow closely the situation as very unstelled conditions could spread us during the next couple of days.
Gustywind

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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A BRIEF
SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS THEN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST PART OF
FA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. LINGERING MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO. AN OVERALL
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...AS MODELS INDICATE PRETTY DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND...BUT GFS INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY
AND MORE TROUGHINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS
TROUGHINESS LINGERING AROUND THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN
GENERAL THOUGH...LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL DEPENDING HOW THE
PATTERN EVOLVES. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AND PREVAILING TIL 22Z OVER
TJPS...TJMZ...AND TISX. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AS THEY MOVE WEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW GROUP OF
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 30 30 40 40
STT 76 87 76 85 / 30 30 40 40
333 PM AST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A BRIEF
SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS THEN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST PART OF
FA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. LINGERING MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO. AN OVERALL
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...AS MODELS INDICATE PRETTY DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND...BUT GFS INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY
AND MORE TROUGHINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS
TROUGHINESS LINGERING AROUND THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN
GENERAL THOUGH...LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL DEPENDING HOW THE
PATTERN EVOLVES. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AND PREVAILING TIL 22Z OVER
TJPS...TJMZ...AND TISX. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AS THEY MOVE WEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW GROUP OF
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 30 30 40 40
STT 76 87 76 85 / 30 30 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
These are the temepratures registred on November 23 in Central America, as you can see very cold lows were experienced in the high areas of El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Guatemala.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.5°C (41.9°F) Coldest in El Salvador since March 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F) Coldest since March 6
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F) Coldest since March 23
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 11.8°C (53.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (84.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.5°C (95.9°F) Warmest since September 24
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.5°C (41.9°F) Coldest in El Salvador since March 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F) Coldest since March 6
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F) Coldest since March 23
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 11.8°C (53.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (84.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.5°C (95.9°F) Warmest since September 24
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Let's prepare for the bad weather that is expected starting on late Saturday.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST FRI NOV 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN/WEAKEN
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER LAND
AREAS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS OVER
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST
WEST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE THROUGH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS
LATE SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW
THIS UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT TSTMS XPCD INLAND TODAY BUT WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING
AND AREN`T XPCD TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. RISK FOR TSTMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z SUN AT JSJ/USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NWD IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING MID-UPPER TROF NORTH OF THE AREA. A PERIOD OF +RA/+TSRA IS
LIKELY ACROSS THESE TERMINALS EARLY SUN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW GROUP OF
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 84 76 / 10 20 50 50
STT 85 78 85 78 / 10 40 40 70
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST FRI NOV 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN/WEAKEN
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER LAND
AREAS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS OVER
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST
WEST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE THROUGH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS
LATE SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW
THIS UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT TSTMS XPCD INLAND TODAY BUT WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING
AND AREN`T XPCD TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. RISK FOR TSTMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z SUN AT JSJ/USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NWD IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING MID-UPPER TROF NORTH OF THE AREA. A PERIOD OF +RA/+TSRA IS
LIKELY ACROSS THESE TERMINALS EARLY SUN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW GROUP OF
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 84 76 / 10 20 50 50
STT 85 78 85 78 / 10 40 40 70
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning! 20 earthquakes have been felt in El Salvador in the last 5 days, most of them occurred in La Union because of an earthquake swarm and most of them occurred in the last 48 hours. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&start=60
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145473
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST FRI NOV 25 2011
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWED PARTLY
TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WHILE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
THE SKIES PREVAILED MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MOVING INLAND OVER ST. CROIX AND WEST OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER(PWAT) VALUES FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 1.4 INCHES SINCE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES HIGHER PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.6 INCHES JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECT...SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY... BUT THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WITH VCSH AND PASSING SHRA. BTWN 17Z-22Z...ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. SOME
OF THESE SHWRS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AS THEY MOVE WEST.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST FRI NOV 25 2011
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWED PARTLY
TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WHILE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
THE SKIES PREVAILED MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MOVING INLAND OVER ST. CROIX AND WEST OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER(PWAT) VALUES FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 1.4 INCHES SINCE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES HIGHER PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.6 INCHES JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECT...SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY... BUT THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WITH VCSH AND PASSING SHRA. BTWN 17Z-22Z...ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. SOME
OF THESE SHWRS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AS THEY MOVE WEST.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Macrocane wrote:Good morning! 20 earthquakes have been felt in El Salvador in the last 5 days, most of them occurred in La Union because of an earthquake swarm and most of them occurred in the last 48 hours. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&start=60
wow..no injuries or destruction i hope
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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