Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Big O]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

In fact, he says that Texas needs to wake up and that in 2 weeks, we need to be looking out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

In fact, he says that Texas needs to wake up and that in 2 weeks, we need to be looking out.

We are seeing some consistency, but still it is very far out. Dont want to get myself too excited yet

[hriverajr]

Yep GFS is different from run to run. I look at it this way. Every winter in Texas, we get at least a couple of opportunities at really cold weather. I have lived here my whole life and its always been that way. Some times it's early, sometimes its late, but at least one. so I figure we will get a pretty significant cold shot sometime this winter. I want to see that cold buildup first before I start putting faith in any runs of the models showing cold air intrusion. Until then its what we have been seeing is what we have as far as temperature patterns go.

[Ntxw]

Yep GFS is different from run to run. I look at it this way. Every winter in Texas, we get at least a couple of opportunities at really cold weather. I have lived here my whole life and its always been that way. Some times it's early, sometimes its late, but at least one. so I figure we will get a pretty significant cold shot sometime this winter. I want to see that cold buildup first before I start putting faith in any runs of the models showing cold air intrusion. Until then its what we have been seeing is what we have as far as temperature patterns go.

My money always goes to early to mid February! There are few other periods in winter that can rival this time frame regarding snow and extreme cold in Texas. It seems the recent warming in the stratosphere has beaten down the PV and is forcing it down into the troposphere. More waves of warming are being hinted by the models and if this is true (lag period of about 1-2 weeks) the many predictions that mid-late Jan change could be true and the brunt of it arriving in early Feb when the full pattern switch has happened.

Medium range, GFS is progressively cool and dry next weekend with a sheered system, Canadian is more consolidated but warmer and dry. Still waiting to see if the Euro still shows what it's had the past few runs, it's in that time frame where once it locks in watch out! We can criticize it for last week's prediction of this week's cold snap but it did predict the cold first, just didn't have it position exactly right (more east).

Edit: Euro lost the snowstorm, has it sheered, way to the south and warmer

[aggiecutter]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

This would fit in with has happened in past La Nina winters. Overall, the La Nina winters are warm for the most part, with 2-4 weeks of intense winter weather sandwiched between the warmth. This happened last year, in December of 2000, and in 1989. It does lend credence to what JB is forecasting. BTW, what is he basing his forecast on: SSW, -AO, +PNA, MJO-8-2-1, a combination of the above.

[Portastorm]

aggiecutter's favorite meteorologist -- Joe Bastardi -- is tweeting this morning about an upcoming "cross-polar flow" and "Siberian Express" for much of the nation at mid month.

This would fit in with has happened in past La Nina winters. Overall, the La Nina winters are warm for the most part, with 2-4 weeks of intense winter weather sandwiched between the warmth. This happened last year, in December of 2000, and in 1989. It does lend credence to what JB is forecasting. BTW, what is he basing his forecast on: SSW, -AO, +PNA, MJO-8-2-1, a combination of the above.

I'm a little skeptical still about any widespread change until maybe late in the month. Like you, I'm thinking the MJO is driving a lot of what has occurred this fall-winter. As you pointed out recently the MJO is progged to return back to 5-6 like it was earlier in December. Also, I'm seeing talk about a negative PNA pattern developing and not positive. Those two things right there make me wonder how we could see any sustained cold. I guess it'll just be a week of watching the teleconnection indices and ensembles. No doubt the operational runs for the medium-range are going to continue to struggle beyond five days.

[MGC]

Still have plenty of time for some cold air.....coldest ever down this way was in Feb 1899......MGC

[Palmer divide shadow]

Siberia is expecting -70-80 low temps next week

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Is the ECMWF still showing a closed low early next week?

[aggiecutter]

Is the ECMWF still showing a closed low early next week?

No, but the 0z and 12z runs of the model show a strong arctic front entering Texas on the 12th.

0z EURO 850mb:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS240.gif

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Is the ECMWF still showing a closed low early next week?

No, but the 0z and 12z runs of the model show a strong arctic front entering Texas on the 12th.

0z EURO 850mb:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS240.gif

Thank you! Bring it on.

[aggiecutter]

Looking at the 12z Ensembles, they tank the AO:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/photo_44/6622452127/
with blocking over the top and lower heights underneath. Looks like a pattern where cold air could overwhelm much of the lower 48:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/photo_44/6 ... otostream/

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

Is the ECMWF still showing a closed low early next week?

No, but the 0z and 12z runs of the model show a strong arctic front entering Texas on the 12th.

0z EURO 850mb:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS240.gif

Sorry, I have to disagree. I'll also add that the 12Z UKMet has joined the Euro solution for the late weekend/early next week time frame suggesting a cyclone crossing Texas. HPC update remains unchanged and credence is given to the #1 Euro and #2 UKMet 500mb solution in scoring...

FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS ABANDONING THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CYCLONE THIS RUN...AND THE
UKMET SPINNING UP A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 6.
THE UPDATE PACKAGE REFLECTED A FLATTER SYSTEM THAN WHAT WAS
DEPICTED BY THE MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE IMPULSE...SO FEEL
THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS COVERED THEREIN FOR THE FINAL.

[Ntxw]

^ Yep it's there. Track and temps are always suspect at this range but in general it hasn't lost the system, this run has a coastal trough.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is the above map saying snow for C. Texas and Houston area?

[Portastorm]

Is the above map saying snow for C. Texas and Houston area?

Nope. A chilly rain perhaps. I checked the temps per the Euro map on Weather Underground.

Edit update (about 30 mins after I initially wrote this) ... it may be a close call. The Euro moves the upper low right across the middle of the state and temps under the ULL column do look cold enough to support some kind of possible wintry precip. From my uneducated eye, I would say areas like Temple/Killeen/Waco would stand a better chance of seeing something based on this particular model run.

EWX in their afternoon AFD called the run "interesting" and referenced the ULL movement.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah it may be close. Might be one of those 'cold' lows where directly below it will have temps cold enough? Similar to Houston in early 2009.....

[Rgv20]

Look at the 18zGFS Go!


18zGFS Forecast Accumulated Snowfall Valid for Friday Night (Jan13)

[Texas Snowman]

Bring it on...cold, snow, and winter. This duck hunter up in North Texas needs some winter weather soon!

[Texas Snowman]

As per Larry Cosgrove:

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ary-3-2012

"As for the cold front scheduled for this coming weekend, we have seen worse. Yes, it will likely be chilly on Sunday and Monday, but a rebound in readings is virtually assured by the middle of next week. Once again, the heart of the colder air is headed for the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard. But around January 12, yet another surge of cold will appear, and this may be accompanied by an important storm. If the numerical models are correct, we will have our first -true- introduction of unmodified Arctic values in Houston late next week."