Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Palmer divide shadow]

Nothing wrong with wanting a few days cold and wintry weather.its nit as if it last.it doesnt even last here in Colorado

[Ntxw]

I don't really see -removed- rampant on this forum. There's a lot of knowledgeable people here and when something is mentioned usually it's based off a run of a model or something they see in the upper air pattern (which is not always correct which is why we have the pros!). Probably there are some biases as to which run we might pick but posters aren't saying it's going to be cold or snow just because they want it to be!

GFS is untrustworthy lately, it's given into the euro AGAIN with early next week. Canadian is somewhere in between the two.

Edit: Euro looks like it's going even further west into the Great Basin, which fits well with past storms this season cutting off in the SW and stalling there.

[Brandon8181]

Everyone? OK, I admit that there may be a small pattern change in the works, though I'm not embracing it. That cold upper low that the models have moving across SE TX next Monday night is interesting. All models have surface temps above freezing (40s) but temps aloft cold enough for snow. I'd like to see a few flakes, but I'm not on the snow bandwagon just yet. I've not seen enough consistency in the models 5-6 days out of late to have much confidence in them.

You know... my wife is always warm...doesn't matter what the temperature is. I always refer to her as a "hot box"......


Your nothing but a hot box! lol

Thanks for all you bring, but its time to bring on the snow

"You want snow, you got snow"!

[iorange55]

Everyone has a bias, whether it's towards warmer or colder weather. But, most people base what they say off model runs and different data. No one is saying, "IT WILL SNOW SATURDAY, AT 3PM AND LAST FOR 23 MINUTES!" that would be -removed-.

Anyway, I am just happy the possibility of cold is finally being talked about. Some of my friends/family members are bugging me that this winter is over. I keep trying to explain to them that a lot of our winter events do not come 'till later January or early February.

[wxman57]

Interesting that the 12Z Euro completely backed off of any TX snow next Monday night and delayed the passage of the upper low 24 hours with much warmer temps aloft.

[Portastorm]

... you appear to be banking on GFS grid numbers for Austin's temps at the mid-month range.... wxman57 needs some company in his "warmmongerer" camp and he appears to now have it.

Not "banking" on anything here. Just providing some balance to the rampant -removed- on this forum.

Well, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with your assessment. The comments and posts about a pattern change have model and indices support. In fact, they have increasing model and indices support in the last 24 hours. People here are not just pulling this stuff out of their you-know-whats.

In my book, -removed- is ignoring obvious facts displayed through measurable meteorological factors. While the GFS grid numbers you shared last night were in disagreement with the other posts about colder weather coming at or around 240 hours ... those other posts had factual support as well.

Discussion and debate are fine things and encouraged here. Based on your posts, I'm assuming you are skeptical of a mid-month pattern change. Fine. You certainly have factual support for that viewpoint. But I would be hard pressed to call those posts saying a mid-month change is coming as "-removed-."

Maybe we'll just agree to disagree on the definition. Again, fine. Let's see what happens in the weeks ahead.

[Texas Snowman]

Rampant -removed-? With all due respect - and I do mean that - IMO that's a pretty bold statement.

Some of the people here (pros, semi-pros, rank amateurs) that are offering their opinions are well up into the thousands of knowledgeable posts and have garnered great respect here over the years. They base their discussions on model runs, patterns, climatology, analog years, past events, and the thoughts of other mets.

Sometimes the thoughts expressed here are right (i.e. nearly all by himself, Mississippi State Guy correctly predicted the Christmas Eve blizzard a couple of years ago); sometimes the thoughts are wrong (i.e. the late week snow last year during Super Bowl week, many thought it would not happen).

But it's educational and enjoyable and that's why we all keep coming back.

[aggiecutter]

According the EURO, the projected phases of the MJO will become more favorable over the coming weeks. It is currently in phase 6, heading toward phase 7. In about a week or so, it is forecast to move phase into phase 8. The forecast is for it to remain in the borderline 8-1-2 phase until around the 17th. It'll be interesting to see where it propagates after that.

MJO forecast from EURO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml

[wxman57]

Let's abandon the subject of -removed-, OK? Besides, we all know the temperature across Texas will be in the upper 80s next week, right?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone explain the MJO and its phases to me in a concise manner?

[aggiecutter]

Can someone explain the MJO and its phases to me in a concise manner?

This is about as concise as one can get. When the MJO is in phases 8-1-2-3 during JFM, there is a tendency for the country, or parts of the country, to be colder than normal. See map below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _image.png

[Portastorm]

Can someone explain the MJO and its phases to me in a concise manner?

aggiecutter had a good graphic for you. Below is a link to a one pager on the MJO:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_1page_factsheet.pdf

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone explain the MJO and its phases to me in a concise manner?

This is about as concise as one can get. When the MJO is in phases 8-1-2-3 during JFM, there is a tendency for the country, or parts of the country, to be colder than normal. See map below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _image.png

Ah, gotcha... so phases 4-6 suck if you want to see Winter Weather.

[Ntxw]

Let's abandon the subject of -removed-, OK? Besides, we all know the temperature across Texas will be in the upper 80s next week, right?

Over jack frost's melted body! I'll be hoping for -80 in western Canada .

The spread amongst the GFS ensembles are not very assuring regarding short-medium term forecasts. I'm not sure what to do with Monday's system but hey Portastorm will have his weather rock ready to deliver! Someone said it earlier, motto is you want snow you got SNOW! (Brought to you by PWC, not valid in Austin).

[weatherdude1108]

I like this forum! There is so much accumulated knowledge here. I can't add much to it, but I'm glad I was introduced to it. I find myself glancing through it more than the NOAA site to see any posts from anyone (pro mets and the like) that see any potential weather on the horizon (wish modeling or realistic). Anyway, just my two cents! Cool site.

That said, I'm ready for a winter storm, whenever it happens!

[orangeblood]

According the EURO, the projected phases of the MJO will become more favorable over the coming weeks. It is currently in phase 6, heading toward phase 7. In about a week or so, it is forecast to move phase into phase 8. The forecast is for it to remain in the borderline 8-1-2 phase until around the 17th. It'll be interesting to see where it propagates after that.

MJO forecast from EURO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml

While it appears its propagating into the favorable phases, I'm not sure how relevant the MJO will become in the upcoming weeks considering its forecast to become very weak (propagating towards the inner circle). The strong signal strength of the MJO seemed to be the driver of this pattern the past few weeks but that now appears to be changing. I wonder what will take over now...............I'll take stratospheric warming for $1000, Alex!!!!!

Check out the warming going on towards the pole now....
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

[Portastorm]

Good point, orangeblood. It's not enough to be cognizant of the phase in which the MJO is in but also the strength of it. It could very well be that another teleconnection or atmospheric index (or marker) could take the lead in driving the pattern. Today's ensemble forecasts show the AO going negative and the NAO more or less being around neutral and the PNA going negative. Interesting times ahead.

[BigB0882]

I do hope we have one good round of winter for the deep south. I have been spoiled the last few winters, I think.

[austinrunner]

The comments and posts about a pattern change have model and indices support. In fact, they have increasing model and indices support in the last 24 hours. People here are not just pulling this stuff out of their you-know-whats..

As I've already pointed out, citing a model run for XYZ weather while ignoring the proven inaccuracy of that model at a 14-day lead is folly. The NWS's own statistics say that the PNA 14-day forecast is about as accurate as flipping a coin. I couldn't care less whether it's wam or cold. But many here jump on the snow bandwagon at the slightest hint of it and then pigeon hole anyone who points out the other side as a warm-monger or allied with someone he's never interacted with. Another example is the endless discussionof MJO phase without any consideration of its strength (until the last couple posts). I call that -removed-. You can call it whatever you want. Cheers.

[hriverajr]

No one is predicting snow right now, just talking about the slight possibility. Most of us realize that it probably will not happen. People will tend to post more when something they are excited about might happen whether its warmth or cold, dry or wet. That is human nature. Also the warm monger thing is just good natured joking.