Texas Winter 2011-2012...

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1661 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:21 pm

I see you haven’t been around the boards very long. This is a weather message board where folks discuss and learn from the Pro Mets and knowledgeable enthusiasts that have been a part of weather board history since their inception. They do serve a purpose and offer a lot of valuable information. Perhaps these type venues are not for you. There are many other highly technical boards to explore, but belittling anyone for their ‘comments’ or ‘thoughts’ does not benefit or add to the discussions, IMO… :wink:
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5316
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1662 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:Let's abandon the subject of -removed-, OK? Besides, we all know the temperature across Texas will be in the upper 80s next week, right? ;-)


It's winter and we have to be cold. Perhaps abandoning -removed- may bring on the freeze. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1663 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:10 pm

The CFS Weeklies for the first time is showing widespread below normal temperatures across the US...It's going to be interesting to see what future models runs show!

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

austinrunner

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1664 Postby austinrunner » Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:02 pm

:eek:
srainhoutx wrote:I see you haven’t been around the boards very long.


Two years as a registered user. A lot longer than that as a lurker. Of course, I have no way of knowing how you define "very long."
0 likes   

austinrunner

Re:

#1665 Postby austinrunner » Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:08 pm

Rgv20 wrote:The CFS Weeklies for the first time is showing widespread below normal temperatures across the US.

The anomalies for Texas are not strong. And notice the more significant positive anomalies not far away on the Mexican plateau, which is often a source for warming in this state.
0 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1666 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:26 pm

Sorry austinrunner but anytime you see that time that kind of cold forecast across the majority of the continent this far out, you can almost guarantee it's underestimating it and usually ends up overwhelming the pattern. The density of arctic air like that this time of year will almost always undercut and beat those measly "warm anomalies" you're referring to everytime. Austinrunner, I would like to introduce to kettle and all of his -removed- little buddies!! :wink:
0 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1667 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:05 pm

Interesting stuff from Larry Cosgrove tonight.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ary-4-2012
0 likes   

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1668 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:55 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Interesting stuff from Larry Cosgrove tonight.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ary-4-2012


Bring it! I hope Larry is right. I'd feel better about our winter storm chances if the potential systems had more snowpack-chilled real estate to our north with which to work.
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1669 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:59 pm

Warning the following forecast of the 0zGFS is for entertainment purposes only!.......1071mb HIGH just SE of Alaska at 312hrs :eek:

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1670 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:02 am

Yikes!!! That is a monster Arctic High moving into Western Canada 8 days from now shown by the 0Z GFS.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#1671 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:33 am

Lol that's funny even for the long range. Have we ever seen a 1070+ high on a GFS map in modern times before? I can recall a couple of 1060s though couple times last year and a few more I think back in 07.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re:

#1672 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:49 am

Ntxw wrote:Lol that's funny even for the long range. Have we ever seen a 1070+ high on a GFS map in modern times before? I can recall a couple of 1060s though couple times last year and a few more I think back in 07.


I think I recall seeing one last year on the GFS and Camadian several days before the early February outbreak. We don't see it very often with the GFS depicting arctic outbreaks like this but when we do it usually becomes verifiable in some form or fashion.

Another note: IMO, these stratospheric warming episodes seem to be the most reliable tool in predicting arctic outbreaks across the lower 48....they take a few weeks to evolve but are almost always on cue!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: Re:

#1673 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:03 am

orangeblood wrote:I think I recall seeing one last year on the GFS and Camadian several days before the early February outbreak. We don't see it very often with the GFS depicting arctic outbreaks like this but when we do it usually becomes verifiable in some form or fashion.


Agree with the fact that when GFS forecasts crazy things like that it's trying to sniff out something.....A turn to a cooler pattern after mid month for the lower 48 is picking up steam! I dont know if you did it on purpose but Camadian (Comedian?) is a good nickname for the CMC! :wink:


By late next week 0zGFS is forecasting some snow for the mountains of Mexico and parts of Texas..Long shot but worth mentioning it.
Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

austinrunner

Re:

#1674 Postby austinrunner » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:11 am

Ntxw wrote:Lol that's funny even for the long range. Have we ever seen a 1070+ high on a GFS map in modern times before? I can recall a couple of 1060s though couple times last year and a few more I think back in 07.


Yeah, last year. What happened then? As one poster said on January 9:

Yes, where did the record high pressure go??? I really think the GFS predicts an ice age every year no matter what.
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1675 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:20 am

austinrunner wrote:Yeah, last year. What happened then? As one poster said on January 9:

Yes, where did the record high pressure go??? I really think the GFS predicts an ice age every year no matter what.


I don't think anyone expects a 1070 high pressure coming down. But, it's a sign of a colder pattern to come. As you recall, February 1st came with a strong arctic front, and we had ice and snow on the ground for a few days.
0 likes   

austinrunner

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1676 Postby austinrunner » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:22 am

That's really stretching the facts to say that a GFS prediction for early January 2011 had much to do with the cold outbreak one month later.
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1677 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:25 am

austinrunner wrote:That's really stretching the facts to say that a GFS prediction for early January 2011 had much to do with the cold outbreak one month later.


I don't think so. If you look at all the other models and all the other data. There are definite signs that a colder pattern is coming. Usually, when the GFS hints at these sort of things for an extended period of time, a change usually comes. It might get pushed back, and it won't be as intense. But, I don't think there is anything wrong with saying that it looks like a colder pattern is coming.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#1678 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:40 am

Some 0z updates: Euro/CMC/GFS have come in warmer and very far to the west with the early week system so based on today's runs probably a cool down then some rain followed by a warm up. A different tune is that they develop a kicker storm that wasn't there in previous runs behind it.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


austinrunner

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1679 Postby austinrunner » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:43 am

iorange55 wrote:There are definite signs that a colder pattern is coming.


A colder pattern for whom is the relevant question. The same questionable model (GFS) that's predicting the monster surface high in western Canada never lowers 500 mb heights at 30 degrees north in Texas below 570. It's a flat pattern that pushes the really cold air towards the Great Lakes, not Texas.

Compare the forecast:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2012010400_NAM_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS

with the classic pattern for a severe arctic outbreak in south Texas as described in this paper:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

The significance of the 500 mb features associated with freeze events in the Lower Rio Grande Valley is that they are recognizable several days before the freeze event. Forecasters preparing extended outlooks and agricultural weather forecasts for the Lower Rio Grande Valley should be able to interpret the 500 mb and surface analyses and progs, in conjunction with other synoptic reasoning and centrally prepared guidance, in terms of likelihood of a damaging freeze.

The recognition guidelines for 500 mb patterns which may indicate a freeze are:

1. A short wave omega block superimposed on a long wave ridge through central Alaska with a deep low system between Hudson Bay and Greenland.

2. An east-west trough line over southern Canada or the northern United States with zonal flow and a strong jet to the south and northerly flow to the north of the trough line.

3. A closed low moving southward through the Prairie Provinces of Canada developing into a long wave trough, without cyclogenesis.

4. Discontinuous retrogression of a full-latitude trough over the western United States involving a closed low or major east-west short-wave moving southward without cyclogenesis.

5. A sharp full-latitude trough, frequently with a closed low, over the southeastern states.
Last edited by austinrunner on Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#1680 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:49 am

austinrunner wrote:
iorange55 wrote:There are definite signs that a colder pattern is coming.


A colder pattern for whom is the relevant question. The same questionable model (GFS) that's predicting the monster surface high in western Canada never lowers 500 mb heights at 30 degrees north in Texas beyond 570. It's a flat pattern that pushes the really cold air towards the Great Lakes, not Texas.


This is not always the case. Shallow arctic air is not always accompanied with extremely low heights especially. In the case of the December 1989 outbreak heights were only between 564 and 552 but at the same time featured single digits to below zero.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1222.php

The same is said for another significant outbreak in December of 1983

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1983/us1223.php

Pretty mind boggling if you ask me :P
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 401 guests