Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

It has been warm in El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica in the last couple of days a weak cold surge will reach us tomorrow night hopefully it will cool us a bit, at least the minimum temperatures. Yesterday observations:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Near normal in Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.7°C (42.3°F) Warmest since December 30 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in Honduras, El Salvador and Panama. Warmer than normal in Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F) Coolest since January 2 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F) Warmest since November 26 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.7°C (94.5°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 12 2011
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN
WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TIME AND ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC TROF APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS FROM 19.5 DEGREES
NORTH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 17.0N. DRYING CAN BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR SCT-NMRS SHRAS
ACROSS WRN/NW PR BEFORE SHARP DRYING TAKES OVER IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM EAST TO WEST.

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIB SEA WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH
TIME WITH H5 HIGH ESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IT
DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SHALLOW CONVECTION. SO
EXPECT TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER WRN/NW PR IN
THE AFTERNOON ON AN EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL STEERING
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER..PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH ABOUT 05/16Z. EXPECT EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
LATER TODAY ON NORTH SWELLS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 9 FT MON
MORNING AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT. SCA`S ALREADY IN EFFECT
WITH HIGH SURF ADVZY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SIG FIRE OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN GUAYAMA/SALINAS
WHERE APPROX. 100 ACRES WERE BURNED ACCORDING TO MEDIA REPORTS. FOR
TODAY...THINGS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS DRY SLOT OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVES RAPIDLY WWD. THIS DEPICTED QUITE WELL BY 00Z GFS WHICH SHOWS LARGE
H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10C ON THE EAST COAST OF
PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND USVI BY 18Z. EXPECT MIN_RH TO DROP
AROUND 40% ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN. SFC WINDS WILL BE 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. EXPECT LOCAL WINDS TO DOMINATE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 74 81 74 / 40 20 50 30
STT 83 75 83 75 / 30 20 20 30

[Macrocane]

Two more eartquakes have been registred in El Salvador one yesterday (magnitude 4.4) and the other one today (magnitude 5.1), no damages have been reported, more info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2212994#p2212994

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was another warm day in parts of Central America, especially for the southern half. These are the temperatures:

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Warmer than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.2°F) Warmest since October 27 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in Belize and Guatemala. Near normal in El Salvador and Honduras. Warmer than normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F) Hottest since September 28 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.5°C (83.3°F) Warmest since October 1 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.8°C (92.8°F) Hottest since November 2 2011
Boquete, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F) Warmest since December 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS GRADUALLY BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY. HOWEVER...
OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED...GRADUALLY BUILDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT WILL TRY TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...OCCASIONAL BANDS AND
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS OVER TJMZ UNTIL
05/21Z...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL THIS EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY EASTERLY UNTIL 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OR WILL GO INTO
EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

IN ADDITION...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND MARINE
GUIDANCE...WE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE...
BEGINNING AT 8 PM AST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 8 PM AST
MONDAY EVENING...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXCEPT ST CROIX. EXPECT 6 TO 8 FOOT NORTH
SWELLS AT 12 TO 15 SECONDS TO PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVE OF 10 TO
16 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER...AND FREQUENT STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST ONE MORE FIRE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE SALINAS AND GUAYAMA AREA AND GENERALLY EXPECT THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO REMAIN THE "HOT SPOT" FOR
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 82 / 20 50 30 30
STT 75 83 75 83 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST SUN FEB 5 2012

.UPDATE...THE SOUNDING AT 06/00Z WAS DRIER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
EVENING RUNS WITH GOOD CAPPING AND DRYING FROM ABOUT 7500 TO 10000
FEET. SHOWERS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE SINCE SUNSET. SOME
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY HEAVY IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO FROM HATILLO TO TOA BAJA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SO FAR ONLY TRACES HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVERNIGHT IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES AND ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO POPS AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM JUST NORTH OF EAST TO
JUST SOUTH OF EAST HAS MADE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE RAINFALL
PATTERN FOR THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS COMPOUNDED WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER MOISTURE COLUMN HAS ALLOWED THE LAND AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE ON THE DRY
SIDE THAN THE CONTINUOUS SHOWERS OF LAST WEEK...BUT SOME SHOWER
ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE USUAL DAILY PATTERN BOTH IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS CONT XCP IN SCT SHRA ON MON FOR PR/USVI.
ALSO SCT SHRA CURRENTLY N OF LESSER ANTILLES...FOLLOWING A VERY WEAK
WAVE...TO REACH TNCM/TKPK LATE TONIGHT FOR PSBL MVFR. WINDS ESE 10-20
KT TURNING E BY LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41053 HAVE INCREASED RAPIDLY DURING THE
EVENING AND HAVE BEEN OVER 7 FEET IN THE LAST 4 OUT OF 6 READINGS.
WITH 14 TO 15 SECOND PERIODS...THIS WILL BRING BREAKING WAVES TO
AROUND 11 TO 15 FEET DEPENDING ON THE SLOPE OF THE SURF ZONE.
MEANWHILE THE OUTER BUOY...41043...IS RECORDING 10 FEET EVERY 14
SECONDS. HENCE EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THE LOCAL WATERS A
LITTLE MORE TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BEACHES WITH NORTHERN EXPOSURE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT BANDS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOMES THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A FAIRLY STABLE AND A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE END OF THE LABOR WEEK. HOWEVER...AS OCCURRED
IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE THE GENERATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. DUE TO THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY LEAVING ONLY
MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
RANGE OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL. THIS PWAT VALUES DO
NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTH EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW OF THEN
AFFECTING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS IS FCST FOR NXT 24 HRS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA
OVR LOCAL FLYING AREA MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IN ADDITION BRIEF MVFR CONDS PSBL VCTY OF...TNCM...TKPK. LOW LVL
WNDS WILL BE FM THE E AT 10-20 KTS BLO 15K FT...BCMG WRLY AND INCR
W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY...AND THEN
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXCEPT ST CROIX.
EXPECT 6 TO 8 FOOT NORTH SWELLS AT 12 TO 15 SECONDS TO PRODUCE
LARGE BREAKING WAVE OF 10 TO 16 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER...AND
FREQUENT STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...AND LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT FUEL DRYING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH PUERTO RICO AND THEREFORE A COUPLE OF SMALL WILDFIRES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH PUERTO RICO TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 72 / 20 40 30 20
STT 83 75 83 75 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT BANDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORM CU LINES
AFFECTED A FEW AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE REPORTED OVER THE NORTH CENNTRAL
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS A CU LINE DEVELOPED OVER EL YUNQUE AND
SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE MUNICIPLAITIES BETWEEN DORADO AND
ARECIBO. THESE SHOWERS DID NOT PODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCULATIONS.

TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.
THIS LIMITED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS IS FCST FOR NXT 24 HRS WITH SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. ISOLD-SCT SHRA OVR LOCAL
FLYING AREA MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST BTW 10 AND 15 KTS WITH SOME ISOLD GUSTS NR 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS BEGAN TO SUBSIDE AT THE 41043 BUOY...SWELL
HEIGHTS AND PERIODS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AT THE HSA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT THE HSA SHOULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST MON FEB 6 2012

.UPDATE...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO CARRY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. 07/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 15 KFT
REACHING 90 KNOTS NEAR 40 KFT OTHERWISE WINDS WERE EAST 10 TO 21
KNOTS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 12 KFT. MOISTURE ENDED ABOVE 10
KFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VARIES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE MID ATLANTIC NEAR 20
DEGREES NORTH WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO MODEST POPS ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO TAPER OFF AFTER A GOOD SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY ONLY BE DUE TO MODEL
BIAS. IN THE LONG RANGE THE 12Z AND 18Z MODEL RUNS VARIED
CONSIDERABLY IN PRESSURE PATTERNS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE
ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BAND NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FRONT`S PROXIMITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND EVEN IF
THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT HERE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPO SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 04Z KPK...IST...ISX. VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES
EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH MOST OF OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY EAST BTW 10 AND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SHOULD
BE BELOW 7 FEET AT BOTH 41043 AND 41053 BY MORNING. SWELL PERIODS
ARE STILL LARGE...12 TO 14 SECONDS...AND BREAKERS OF 10 TO 12
FEET WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTS. HENCE SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES CONTINUE AS BEFORE. RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER BREAKING WAVES ARE LESS THAN 10 FEET.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST TUE FEB 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT BANDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A FAIRLY STABLE AND A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE END OF THE LABOR WEEK. HOWEVER...AS OCCURRED
IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE THE GENERATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. DUE TO THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY LEAVING ONLY
MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
RANGE OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL. THIS PWAT VALUES DO
NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW OF THEN
AFFECTING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS IS FCST FOR NXT 24 HRS WITH SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. ISOLD-SCT SHRA OVR LOCAL
FLYING AREA MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST BTW 10 AND 15 KTS WITH SOME ISOLD GUSTS NR 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND SHOULD BE BELOW 7 FEET AT BOTH 41043 AND 41053 BY LATE THIS MORNING.
SWELL PERIODS ARE STILL LARGE...12 TO 14 SECONDS...AND BREAKERS OF
10 TO 12 FEET WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTS.
HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIGNIFICANT FUEL DRYING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH PUERTO RICO AND THEREFORE A COUPLE OF WILDFIRES ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SANTA ISABEL...COAMO... GUAYAMA AND SALINAS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 72 81 72 / 40 40 40 40
STT 83 75 83 75 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

For those who like to surf,this is the best time of the year to come to Rincon in western Puerto Rico and enjoy.

[cycloneye]

The pattern of some scattered showers combined with intervals of sun will continue for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST TUE FEB 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT WILL TRY TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL GRIDS AND PRODUCTS FOR FORECAST
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. DECIDED TO
DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ710 WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OPTED TO EXTEND BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 PM AST
TONIGHT...BUT MOST RECENT BUOY DATA INDICATING THIS MIGHT NEED TO
BE DISCONTINUED EARLIER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIGNIFICANT FUEL DRYING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH PUERTO RICO AND THEREFORE A COUPLE OF WILDFIRES REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SANTA ISABEL...COAMO...GUAYAMA AND SALINAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 71 81 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 83 75 83 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

N JUAN PR
924 PM AST TUE FEB 7 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS CROSSING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AFTER
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS IN SAINT CROIX. SATELLIITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BETTER THAN AVERAGE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WHOSE TOPS ARE NEAR
700 MB AND THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER. THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO BRING
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER TO THE LOCAL WATERS...U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL...HOWEVERR...BE MORE FAVORED THAN
THE ATLANTIC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NOW A DRIER SLOT...APPARENT EARLIER...HAS COMPLETELY
CLOSED IN. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TOPS OF
THE CLOUDS ARE VERY LIMITED BY THE DRY LAYER BUT WITH A LITTLE
OROGRAPHIC HELP IN OVERCOMING NEGATIVE ENERGY BELOW THE LFC A
FAIRLY GOOD LAYER IS PRESENT FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT A TIME
WHEN THE MJO FAVORS A WETTER CLIMATE PATTERN. SO LOOK FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST.

ALSO VERY NOTABLE IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 07/18Z IS A
DENSE CLOUD OF DUST THAT STRETCHED MORE THAN 750 MILES BACK FROM
ITS LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 20 NORTH 39 WEST TO 10
NORTH 26 WEST. NAAPS MODELS SHOW THIS CLOUD MOVING MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH AMERICA...BUT BY 12/00Z PART OF IT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH FORECAST PARTICULATE MATTER OF
320-640 MICROGRAMS PER CUBIC METER. CURRENT FLOW OUT OF THE AREA IS
FAVORABLE TO THIS FORECAST...BUT RAIN-OUT MAY DILUTE THE
CONCENTRATIONS SOMEWHAT. WATCH FOR HAZIER...BUT PERHAPS
DRIER...SKIES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPO SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 08/16Z KPK...IST...ISX WITH VICINTY SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR
ALL SITES EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJPS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PR
AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST BTW 5 AND 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWERS. BEST WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS WERE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS NEAR 2 TO 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE NORTH HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WAS ISSUED AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY. SEAS ARE STILL ROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER
WATERS DUE TO WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS...THEREFORE MARINERS
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL EXPOSED WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dust will affect the Eastern Caribbean by the weekend,so be aware of that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST WED FEB 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND THUS MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO AID IN LIMITING SHALLOW MOISTURE
BELOW 700 MILLIBARS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL
TROUGH AND EXTENSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...
MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SAGS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. FURTHER
EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXITING
WEST AFRICA AND BEING CARRIED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FAIRLY MILD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
BRING PASSING SHOWERS AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...A FEW
WEAKLY INDUCED PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME...AND BRING ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO LOCALIZED FORCING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EAST
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE DOMINANT TRADES TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT THESE OCCASIONAL
PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EACH DAY.

LONG TERM WISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN...BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAY BE AFFECTED
BY SOME PARTICULATES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST NOW LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. STILL A WAY OUT
HOWEVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. ALTHOUGH THIS USUALLY
AIDS IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT SOMEWHAT HAZY CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...MAYBE BY SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER TEMPO SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 08/14Z ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX AND TKPK. UNTIL 08/16Z
VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJPS. TJSJ
08/00Z INDICATED AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY
FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE 10-20K
FEET AND THEN WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 50 40 40 30
STT 84 73 84 75 / 50 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST WED FEB 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TIME. SAL WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB INCREASED LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING AT 15 MPH...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WERE LESS THAN ONE INCH. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED
THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AN A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY
TONIGHT...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE EVEY MORNING...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS MOST
OF PUERTO RICO.

ALSO...LATEST VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A DENSE AREA OF
SAHARAN AIR LAYER...MOVING WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. INTERESTINGLY....NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL FORECAST SOME OF
THIS DUST TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA AROUND 11/12Z. SO...SOME
HAZY SKIES CANT BE RULE OUT FOR SATURDAY...AS THIS AREA OF SAL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVG WESTWARD INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND LATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS WITH SHRA. CONDS WILL BECOME VFR AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT
09/12Z. AREAS OF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR AS SHOWERS MOVE WSW IN FLOW OF
10 TO 20 KT. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN PR AFT 09/04Z UNTIL
09/16Z. FOR USVI VFR CONDS BFR 09/00Z AND AFT 09/18Z ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OTHERWISE BRIEF MVFR IN LOWER CIGS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED.
FROM THERE BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PR AND CONT
UNTIL AFT 09/15Z. LLVL WINDS 10 TO 20 KT UP TO 8 KFT BCMG LGT AND
VRBL BTW 10-16 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 81 / 50 50 50 50
STT 74 84 74 84 / 60 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU FEB 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BROAD BUT STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINED
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.THIS RIDGE ALTHOUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND CONSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RELAX THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BY THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINATING EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD STREAMERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AND BRING ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO CAP AND LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SO FAR EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES AND MOSTLY ISOLATED TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY
AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER TEMPO SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 09/14Z ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. VICINITY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL AT LEAST
09/12. TJSJ 09/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED VARIABLE AND LIGHT WIND FLOW ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 72 / 50 50 50 30
STT 84 73 84 75 / 50 60 60 20

[cycloneye]

Here are the stats of what occured on January in Puerto Rico,St Thomas and St Croix.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=jan2012cr

[cycloneye]

In general,this weekend will be a good one except for some scattered showers that will be passing thru the region.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST THU FEB 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN BULK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVAILED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT CLIPPING THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS MOISTURE...IS HELPING SOMEWHAT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THETA-E VALUES AT 700 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIMITING EVEN MORE THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY SOME SHRA EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 09/22Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 82 / 50 50 30 30
STT 73 84 75 84 / 60 60 20 20

[Macrocane]

Here are the stats of what occured on January in Puerto Rico,St Thomas and St Croix.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=jan2012cr

I love climatology, thanks for sharing

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT. TJSJ 00Z RAOB SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.31
INCHES WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE CONCENTRATED BELOW 700 MILLIBARS...
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PROVEN TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR
TODAY...THEREFORE WE EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
THIS PATTERN OF EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SHALLOW BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS MODEL SHOWS A DECREASE IN THETA-E AT THE LOW
LEVELS AND SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THIS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURG NXT 24
HRS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ARE FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA OR EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS...WHERE FEW-ISOLD LOW-MID LVL CLDS AND
PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. LOCAL LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY FM EAST SOUTHEAST BTW 5 AND 10 KTS...THEN BACKING
W/HT AND BCMG NORTHERLY ABV 15K FT.


&&

.MARINE...AREA BUOYS ARE REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS JUST BELOW 6 FEET.
THIS WAVE HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AS THE WIND
INCREASES TODAY. BUOYS TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE
REPORTING WINDS OF UP TO 21 KNOTS AND THE BUOY JUST SOUTH OF SAINT
JOHN HAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS THESE MODERATE WINDS AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS...IN PARTICULAR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 72 / 40 30 20 20
STT 84 75 84 73 / 40 20 20 30