The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
FW is slowly biting into the potential event, gradually changing their forecast towards favorable.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
242 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY SNOW EXPECTED
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WELL TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CA/NV AND BAJA MEXICO. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
CURRENTLY PLACE WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE CA/NV
DISTURBANCE ABSORBS THE MEXICO DISTURBANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE THEN WILL PROCEED TO INDUCE TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND
WET-BULB COOLING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
ENOUGH SATURATION MAY LEND TO SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON SOUNDING PROFILES WITH
THE NAM12 COLDER THAN THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...PARTIAL
THICKNESS METHODS DIFFER MORE THAN THE SOUNDINGS. TO SAY THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION...TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
AN UNDERSTATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME AND TAKE THE WINTRY MIX LINE DOWN TO A
COMANCHE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE. THIS LINE MAY BE ADJUSTED BACK
NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND ATMOSPHERIC
CHANGES WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
STRONG WAA KICKS IN THROUGH 800MB BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT
ANY THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN A MIX FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...THEN JUST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR UPPER
DISTURBANCE.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
I hate it lol.
