Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[somethingfunny]

Nothing on the ground here in Garland, had some nice flakes earlier in the evening but nothing stuck... the radar is filling in over Dallas County, but I've got nothing falling here at the surface.

[somethingfunny]

The last hurrah is inbound. I can't believe I'm staying up for this.

[somethingfunny]

I was lucky enough to get that cell to intensify over me, (I live at the circled + mark below the word Garland; the graphical representations of rain/sleet/snow are *ahem* inaccurate) I had sleet coming down pretty hard, enough to make the sidewalk crunchy and sting my face. At the back end of it I got some nice flurries, even a few big snowflakes mixed into it. I'm not going to wait up for the last band though, it's clear I'm not going to get the white dusting I was hoping for. This was still pretty awesome considering what this winter has been like.



I can't wait to see the totals from Grayson, Cooke, Collin, Denton, Wise, Jack, Parker, Palo Pinto counties...the radar makes it look like y'all made out like bandits out there.

[somethingfunny]

Blah and that last section of light precip is in fact rain. Wxman57, warm air advection, you win. Good night.

[Texas Snowman]

Not much of anything on the ground up here in Grayson County. A few spotty patches of white on the trampoline, vehicles, etc. But no coating of snow at my house.

[Kelarie]

Where I am at in Texarkana, had a light dusting of snow/sleet on the ground and cars. Driving into work this morning, snow and sleet mix coming down. Roads were ok, except the closer I got to work, were slippery and I lost traction a little bit.

[Kelarie]

From NWS...

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR STILL OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT COULD POSE A PROBLEM DURING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. IF CLOUDS PRECEDE THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED...
READINGS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS FROM THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND TO SEE HOW THIS COMES TOGETHER. MOS
GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF A TEXARKANA TO MONROE LINE. MONDAY LOOKS WET AND COLD...BUT ABOVE FREEZING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING

[wxman57]

OK, everybody happy now? You've had your winter. Can we now start looking forward to a nice, warm spring?

[ravyrn]

OK, everybody happy now? You've had your winter. Can we now start looking forward to a nice, warm spring?

No way, Jose! We need a nice, cold spring to average out the extremely hot summer and warm winter we have had!

[aggiecutter]

A couple pics this morning from Texarkana:

http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79 ... ited-1.jpg

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the pics aggiecutter!

We have 29 days in feb this year and we intend to use all of them! To continue with orangeblood's call, some models are hinting that early next week is another opportunity. The system mid week will head for the central plains and bring rain to Texas. It is the one after that is beginning to look interesting. With no brutally cold air around we'll have to once again look at things marginally if so. The MJO is currently in its favorable phases, as long as that is so, there will be chances for at least to the 25th+- imo

[weatherdude1108]

Central Texas discussion: "PATTERN BEARS WATCH..."

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST MON FEB 13... AS
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
WEST TEXAS...A LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN PATTERN WILL COMMENCE WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE STATEMENTS ON THIS...
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL TELL THE TALE...SUFFICE IT
TO SAY...THIS PATTERN BEARS WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND.

[Tireman4]

OK, everybody happy now? You've had your winter. Can we now start looking forward to a nice, warm spring?

No way, Jose! We need a nice, cold spring to average out the extremely hot summer and warm winter we have had!

No no no. You had almost 4 months of Summer. Not fair. We get at least 2 months, can we not?

[somethingfunny]

Snow and sleet from late on the 12th through early on the 13th varied quite a bit across North Texas. Most of the snow fell along and west of I-35 and north of I-20. The heaviest (an inch or more), was across western portions of N. Texas and along the Red River. As temperatures warmed overnight, most of the snow and sleet had melted by sunrise.

The lightest shaded area indicates where it is likely or observed that at least 1 inch of snow fell. Heavier amounts of 2 to 4 inches occurred in northern and western Oklahoma. The snow was "dry," though, with only a few hundredths or just over a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent. Also note that measurements will vary greatly over short distances, based on the timing of the measurement (how much melting and settling occurred), the ground and wind environment of the site, and the method used to measure.

[orangeblood]

Thanks for the pics aggiecutter!

We have 29 days in feb this year and we intend to use all of them! To continue with orangeblood's call, some models are hinting that early next week is another opportunity. The system mid week will head for the central plains and bring rain to Texas. It is the one after that is beginning to look interesting. With no brutally cold air around we'll have to once again look at things marginally if so. The MJO is currently in its favorable phases, as long as that is so, there will be chances for at least to the 25th+- imo

12Z GFS ensembles are trending towards the Canadian, Japanese models for late week system...there is a lot of energy coming out of the northwest flow and is making this extremely hard for the models to put together. One thing I did notice about the 500mb pattern for the late week system, it is similar to the 500mb set up for the snowpocalypse of 2010. Now I'm not saying this will be anything close to that but it's interesting none the less.

[iorange55]

12Z GFS ensembles are trending towards the Canadian, Japanese models for late week system...there is a lot of energy coming out of the northwest flow and is making this extremely hard for the models to put together. One thing I did notice about the 500mb pattern for the late week system, it is similar to the 500mb set up for the snowpocalypse of 2010. Now I'm not saying this will be anything close to that but it's interesting none the less.

This one is going to be tricky. Talked with a friend and he seems to think that it will be our best shot of actual "winter weather" this winter.

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS ensembles are trending towards the Canadian, Japanese models for late week system...there is a lot of energy coming out of the northwest flow and is making this extremely hard for the models to put together. One thing I did notice about the 500mb pattern for the late week system, it is similar to the 500mb set up for the snowpocalypse of 2010. Now I'm not saying this will be anything close to that but it's interesting none the less.

This one is going to be tricky. Talked with a friend and he seems to think that it will be our best shot of actual "winter weather" this winter.

As our friend srainhoutx posted on the local forum, winter recon will be ramping up its effort this week with extra dropsondes to sample the Pacific. It's definitely the system to watch. FWIW, seems like the 12z Euro came in slower and deeper on the system compared to the 0z run.

The GFS looks out of whack. It was the worst model this past weekend in handling real weather over Texas.

[Ntxw]

GFS has been abysmal. It was a mess last week and lately (after doing so well with the MJO) has gone haywire for that as well. I'm seeing signs that the MJO will complete it's circle and possibly re-emerge once again over the West Pacific. What does this mean? There is the potential that our recent wave may go around the planet more than once. Implications for early spring which points towards cooler and wet for Texas. However, if it decides to get stuck over the Indian Ocean then warmer times ahead (currently do not see guidance for that yet.)

As for later this week into next week, the UKmet <- has performed very well this winter overall has come in line with the Canadian along with the Euro. Heights are low enough for cooler air masses and a system. Devil in the details at this point. The major models are pointing at a potential eastern U.S coastal storm (beginning from the Texas coast)

MJO



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[Texas Snowman]

Tweet from Henry M a few moments ago...

@Henry_Margusity: "Euro Model shows some interesting storm scenarios over the next 10 days."

[Rgv20]

Perhaps another cool to cold/wet weekend in store for the RGV?

Brownsville afternoon discussion..

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL JUMP INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUOYED BY BRIEF LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD TEMPS DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STRUGGLING INTO THE 60S. THIS MAY EVEN
BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW DEEPENS FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.