Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

I knew that!

I remember someone posting that DFW sees March snow on average every other winter, is that correct? 2008, 2010 were the last two we have seen.

[Ptarmigan]

You are Mr. 101, Wxman57?

It's the "Heat Miser" to counter Portastorm's "Snow Miser".

Than I am the "Rain Miser".

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I knew that!

I remember someone posting that DFW sees March snow on average every other winter, is that correct? 2008, 2010 were the last two we have seen.

At school at SFA we had a dusting in early-ish March one morning, just before spring break. Also snowed there Easter Weekend in April.

[somethingfunny]

I knew that!

I remember someone posting that DFW sees March snow on average every other winter, is that correct? 2008, 2010 were the last two we have seen.

Eh, lately anyway...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows

March 20-21, 2010 An unusually strong and cold upper level low slowly moved along the Red River Valley on March 20 and 21. Heavy snowfall occurred on the backside of the low with measurable snowfall occurring mainly to the north of I-20. A very localized and heavy band of snow developed during the early morning hours of the 21st, dumping 5 to 9 inches of snow across Collin County. Some locations just 20 miles to the southwest of this band of snow only picked up 1 inch. Snow continued into the early afternoon hours on the 21st across East Texas before ending.

March 6-7, 2008 Rain changed over to heavy snow and thundersnow during the late morning hours in areas northwest of the DFW Metroplex. Decatur and Gainesville reported 9 inches of snow with this event. A stationary rain/snow line resulted in dramatically different snow totals across the Metroplex. Northern Tarrant county had up to 7 inches of snow, DFW recorded only had 1.1 inches, and much of the Metroplex saw less than 1 inch. More light snow developed across the eastern Metroplex and into Northeast Texas in the early morning hours of March 7, but amounts were less than 1 inch.

March 3, 2008 An upper level low produced snow for most areas along and north of I-20 where amounts generally ranged from a trace to 3 inches. A localized intense band of heavy snow centered over Grayson County produced as much as 6 inches of snow. DFW recorded 1 inch.

April 7-8, 2007 Snow fell in areas south of I-20 during the daytime hours of the Saturday before Easter. The highest amounts of 3 to 5 inches were found in a band from Comanche and Goldthwaite to Waco and Temple/Killeen. Bluebonnets were already in bloom when this snow fell, making for unique pictures of this event.

March 27, 2005 An upper level low produced a very localized narrow band of 1-2 inches of snow from Graham to Weatherford to Benbrook to Cleburne in the predawn hours of Easter morning. Most areas outside the snow band saw only moderate to heavy rain.

April 5, 1996 Severe drought plagued North Texas throughout the winter months, but this Good Friday brought abundant rainfall and one of the heaviest April snowstorms on record. Some sleet mixed with the rain before a complete transition to snow occurred west of a line from Montague to Weatherford to Eastland (though some light snow fell as far east as Fort Worth). The heaviest snowfall occurred near the I-20 corridor where Sweetwater accumulated 18 inches. The 9.3 inches at Abilene remains an all-time 24-hour record. Six inches fell in Breckenridge.

March 12-13, 1924 Between 4-8 inches of snow fell over the Red River area, and as far south as Dallas and Fort Worth. Between 8-10 inches were reported at Bowie, Bridgeport, Weatherford and Honey Grove.

That seems like a complete list of March and April snows in FWD's area of responsibility. I had just moved to Sherman in January 2008, those back to back March snowdumps were one heck of a welcome to the Red River Valley.

[Texas Snowman]

Remembering one of my favorite Valentine's Days ever here in North Texas - February 14, 2004!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=snowfeb142004

[aggiecutter]

From Portastorm's good friend and mentor, JB:

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... to/1/large

[orangeblood]

And so it begins....GFS phasing alert!!!

[Ntxw]

I don't know what Portastorm did to the GFS but I sure like it! Come on DGEX! Definitely staying up tonight for the other globals sigh...

[orangeblood]

From Portastorm's good friend and mentor, JB:

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... to/1/large

Yeah, I noticed this afternoon's Euro Ensembles had some really cold air building in Canada around day 9-10. IMO, this winter almost certainly has to flip to a sustainable colder period at some point.

[Texas Snowman]

Ooohhh, let's hope Joe B is right about this. I've still got some firewood to burn before spring!

@BigJoeBastardi: "Severe cold for season likely last week of Feb for much of nation, centered in the plains."

[Texas Snowman]

And another "phasing" alert, this time from Jim Cantore:

@JimCantore: "Be still my heart!! GFS phasing streams and give us a SUNDAY NOR'EASTER!! Definitely not in Stone!:"

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the last few runs of the Euro (hemispheric surface temperature anomaly) and I see it does, indeed, indicate air cooling in western and NW Canada around day 10. The airmass goes from 10-20F above normal to only 5-10F below normal on the last panel, though. Nothing extreme.

GFS indicates a bit of cold air building in NW Canada, too, around the same time. It's a bit colder than the Euro at 10-20F below normal. There are indications of another moderate cold front pushing across the U.S. the last week of February. Again, nothing extreme. Perhaps a freeze down to Houston around the 27th-28th to close out the winter (lower 30s).

I still need 1 day with a high of 81F to win the February forecast contest and take the lead.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hello everyone, it's been a long time since I dropped in on S2K. I hope all is well with you and your family.

Now on to my favorite subject "Winter" and what will be or wont be. Well with all things said I see this being another La Nina winter though not near as strong or as persistant. This is not good news for those of us in the worst drought since the 1950's.

My lawn is as brown and dead in August as it was in January...lol, and the heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees to the point that are dropping leaves as it was late October. Now how do I see Winter 2011-2012 shapping up?

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro.

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough.

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter.

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry.

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry.

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet.

Well that's my 2 cents worth of weather forecasting for today. Stay cool and pray for RAIN!!

Well seeing as how we are half way through Feburary lets see how I did so far.

The only ding to this is mid Jan with the major cold and chance of snow/ice, everything else look like a pretty good outlook!

[orangeblood]

Get your popcorn ready!!! 12Z NAM picks up where the DGEX left off but is even more extreme with forecasting Snowpocalypse 2.0 for Saturday across the Hill Country into North Texas.

[Portastorm]

Get your popcorn ready!!! 12Z NAM picks up where the DGEX left off but is even more extreme with forecasting Snowpocalypse 2.0 for Saturday across the Hill Country into North Texas.

That is surprising as the NAM is usually warmer than the other models ... but ... sure enough ... here it is:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

The NAM isn't predicting snow, it's predicting a chance of sleet. Twister site has no snow accumulations across TX and a sounding (Abilene to San Angelo) with a low from the mid 40s to near 50 on Saturday morning.

Snow Accumulation by 15Z Saturday:


Soundings indicate quite warm air aloft until after 12Z Saturday. And that's about when the precip is ending. The sounding below is for near San Angelo at 12Z Saturday. Note the warm air aloft and only the top of the rain column is below freezing:



Now, compare to 18Z Saturday. Finally get some cold air aloft, enough for snow, perhaps. But the air at the surface is still quite warm and the moisture is moving out fast. In Dallas, the cold air doesn't move in until the precip ends.

Remember, that precip on the chart Portastorm posted isn't occurring at the time the 850mb temps are at freezing. The map shows precip that falls in the PREVIOUS 6 hours. It could have ended hours before the temps get cold enough for snow.

[gpsnowman]

Today is Wednesday. This is for Saturday. This has to be a fluke, right? The locals have 50's all weekend. Trust me, I hope this verifies but is this even a remote possibility?

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Today is Wednesday. This is for Saturday. This has to be a fluke, right? The locals have 50's all weekend. Trust me, I hope is verifies but is this even a remote possibility?

See my post above. Yes, even the NAM has Dallas around 50 on Saturday, and it has no frozen precip forecast for you. Perhaps some snow in the western Hill Country as the precip ends Saturday morning. But even temps there should be well above freezing that morning.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Today is Wednesday. This is for Saturday. This has to be a fluke, right? The locals have 50's all weekend. Trust me, I hope is verifies but is this even a remote possibility?

See my post above. Yes, even the NAM has Dallas around 50 on Saturday, and it has no frozen precip forecast for you. Perhaps some snow in the western Hill Country as the precip ends Saturday morning. But even temps there should be well above freezing that morning.

After I posted the model run and saw Heat Miser online, I thought "oh geez, here comes the 'model runs show precip for the previous 6-12 hours and not current' lecture!"

I personally wouldn't dare take that run verbatim ... but if it ends up being a trend ... and you Mr. Heat Miser know that trends in model runs are important ... then we all may have something to talk about after all this weekend. That being said, I still think it's going to be a cold rain event for most if not all. I'm more jazzed about what lies about 7-14 days.

[wxman57]

After I posted the model run and saw Heat Miser online, I thought "oh geez, here comes the 'model runs show precip for the previous 6-12 hours and not current' lecture!"

I personally wouldn't dare take that run verbatim ... but if it ends up being a trend ... and you Mr. Heat Miser know that trends in model runs are important ... then we all may have something to talk about after all this weekend. That being said, I still think it's going to be a cold rain event for most if not all. I'm more jazzed about what lies about 7-14 days.

You are correct, Mr. Snow Miser. Trends are important. But we're dealing with stale, modified Canadian air this weekend. And it's quite possible the precip ends a lot earlier than the NAM is indicating. Certainly wouldn't rule out the chance of more sleet in the Hill Country, but this time the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere could be a good bit warmer than last weekend, meaning more time to melt before it reaches the ground. (and I LIKE to melt things!)