Florida Weather

[Tampa_God]

As impressive as that radar looked last night and this morning - barely .15" at my house. Glad some others had a nice soaking. We watched the clouds build higher and higher as they passed us. First couple of thunder rumbles put our one dog in the growl and bark mode.

I have high hopes pinned on the rain later today and tonight as the lake is green (with grass not algae).

We always seem to miss the bulk of the rain when a squall line comes through in New Port Richey, don't we?

I'm liking the batch of rain off to the west though, seems like a good soaker.

[NDG]

Meanwhil, 12z gfs shows dry air at h70 start wrapping around the mid level low around or shortly after midnight into central and southern FL, so any severe wx will be in the early night hours, if it is correct

[psyclone]

I'm having a tough time getting bullish about SVR prospects. the line currently approaching the west coast doesn't look impressive from a reflectivity or lightning data standpoint. it looks like a line of moderate to briefly heavy rain with some imbedded lightning strikes. the fact that we've gotten no mesoscale discussion from the SPC at this point (which frequently precedes a watch issuance) is telling as well. later tonight the best upper dynamics will be coming through at night after the low levels have been stabilized by today's convection. now if that cold pocket were approaching at peak heating that would be a different story. the timing here just doesn't look good for severe. nonetheless i'm hoping i'm wrong and we get some good storms. it's been boring for too long and we need lots of water.

[MGC]

Low is cranking up in the north GOM this morning. It should bring the Sunshine State a good bit of rain.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

Hello MGC! Yes, the actual 1004 mb surface Low Pressure is just southeast of the Mississippi River Delta, with the potent mid-upper level Low still digging east-southeast just to the west. The overall system is organizing rather well right now. But, there is a pronounced dry slot currently being entrained into the circulation out in the central GOM per water vapor imagery. That is interesting to note, as NDG did earlier as the latest GFS does show dry air being infiltrated into the system.

However, I am still expecting another squall line later this evening to form and move down the peninsula along the frontal boundary extending from the intensifying Low pressure area. The Low will move across the northern peninsula overnight. Hopefully, the substantial rains will come as forecast as we all need it to put a dent in the drought.

[NDG]

I think that squall line coming into the west coast of FL is going to be basically it for central FL, dry air has pretty much taken over the mid level circulation.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the sun came out enough to fuel a scattered line of thunderstorms which are now developing along the I-10 corridor from Tallahassee east to the Jax area. It is not yet raining at my location, but there are thundershowers just to my east and they should move in shortly. The showers and storms are moving northward at this time.

[northjaxpro]

Tallahassee WFO just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Madison county.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 141 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...OR NEAR HOPEWELL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GREENVILLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[psyclone]

rain closing in on my location. let 'er dump:)

[cycloneye]

Here is the first line arriving.

[NDG]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...COASTAL-BEND AREA...COASTAL SERN PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211725Z - 212000Z

QUASI-LINEAR MCS OFFSHORE FROM FL MAY OFFER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING ROUGHLY 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FROM FL
COASTAL BEND REGION SSEWD TO PIE-SRQ AREAS. NWRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX
MAY OFFER AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN
PANHANDLE AREAS NE AAF. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
SMALL ATTM. ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CONVECTION INLAND MAY PRODUCE MORE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED/VARIABLE SFC MOISTURE FIELD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL. AREAS AROUND OCF AND GIF THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED MORE SUSTAINED HEATING/MIXING SHOW LOW-MID 60S DEW
POINTS...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER S FL...KEYS AND ADJOINING ERN GULF.
STABILIZATION FROM THAT OUTFLOW AREA ALSO WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF
GULF MCS BACKBUILDING...AT LEAST FOR NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF PRIOR STG INSOLATION ARE DIMINISHING
AS PROGRESSIVELY DENSER COVERAGE AND THICKER DEPTH OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF MCS. THIS WILL
SLOW PACE OF FURTHER DIABATIC SFC DESTABILIZATION AND MLCINH
REDUCTION...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMODYNAMIC SUITABILITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INLAND. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OBSERVED RANGE OF SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WITH A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES F ADDED THERMALLY...WILL YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NWD AND NEWD EXTENT ACROSS FL INTO
GA...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE PULSE/MULTICELL
MORPHOLOGY. HOWEVER...IN GROUND-RELATIVE SENSE...DEEP BULK SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME OVER FL W COAST...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT BECOMING COMMON BY TIME OF MCS ARRIVAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax forecast discussion excerpts issued this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.........

WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SOUTH
TO NORTH. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DRY SLOTTING WORKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE FL LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
PREFRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER WIDESPREAD POPS
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
1-2 INCHES ACROSS NE FL...WITH ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH ACROSS SE GA.

THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING SE GA SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXITING
NE FL SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS EARLY WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTN. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TNGT WITH
THICK CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORING CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH READINGS INLAND
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[NDG]

From the FL panhandle on eastward towards the Jax area is where it looks like is going to be the big winner, rainfallwise. Looking at latest RUC as well as 12z GFS & NAM, it shows that moisture will hang longer, compared to central FL and parts of S FL, it will not be affected as much by the dry air pushing in at H70 during the night.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[NDG]

Full sun out now in Orlando, things could turn severe when that squall line moves through the Orlando area later this evening.

[northjaxpro]

The latest visible and IR images on the GOM system.

[psyclone]

you can easily see the outflow boundary hogging the caribbean moisture flow just north of western cuba.

[NDG]

you can easily see the outflow boundary hogging the caribbean moisture flow just north of western cuba.

Yeap, is keeping things at bay in S FL but for interior & eastern central along with northern FL is a different story.

[cycloneye]

It will be a very welcome rainy period for NorthCentral Florida,to aliviate the drought conditions that has been severe.

[northjaxpro]

It will be a very welcome rainy period for NorthCentral Florida,to aliviate the drought conditions that has been severe.

You can't stress that enough cycloneye. We are over 7 inches below the average rainfall average currently at this point of the year in late April. I have only measured just over 3.25 inches for the 2012 so far. BONE dry around these parts for sure. I got a quick .10 of an inch in thundershowers that moved north through my location a couple of hours ago. Hopefully we will get a good soaking rain overspreading the Jax metro area later tonight as the Low Pressure system moves through the region.

[psyclone]

rain has stopped at my house. i got nothing yesterday and .4" today.