Florida Weather

[cycloneye]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220210Z - 220315Z

A STRONG TO LOWER END SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUST RISK MAY MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR THE TAMPA/ST. PETE METRO IN A FEW HOURS. A POTENTIALLY
GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FARTHER S WHERE A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND
AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINGENT LARGELY UPON SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE/RADAR MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN INTENSIFYING QLCS 40 MI
W OF PINELLAS COUNTY MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST AS TEMPS HOLD STEADY
NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH/ATTENDANT VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN
GULF -- AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO AID MAINTAINING UPDRAFT VIGOR FOR THE QLCS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITH THAT STATED...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER
THE REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HRS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY VIA MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DESPITE MID 60S DEWPOINTS /REF.
00Z TBW RAOB/. FARTHER S...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SLIGHTLY
GREATER MLCAPE /400-800 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO RECOVER. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES OWING TO THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN INCREASING SWLY LLJ /35 KTS/ BY
06Z MAY LEAD TO GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO RISKS.

..SMITH.. 04/22/2012

[Florida1118]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 186 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-071-081-
085-086-087-093-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-119-221100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0186.120422T0310Z-120422T1100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA ST. LUCIE SUMTER

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 186 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-071-081-
085-086-087-093-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-119-221100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0186.120422T0310Z-120422T1100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA ST. LUCIE SUMTER

Here is the graphic of the Tornado Watch area.

[psyclone]

no severe for me as the line came through...i was right at the apex of the bow so i thought i might get some strong winds but we didn't get beyond 30 mph. this is a nice rain event here.

[Dave]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1216 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ067-068-072>074-168-172>174-220530-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO
PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
1216 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1210 AM EDT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST METRO AREAS WHICH ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

[Dave]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1216 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

GMZ656-676-220615-
1216 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM

AT 1210 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS WHERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

THESE SHOWERS CAN ALSO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BOATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE UNDER SAIL...SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

[Dave]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1222 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ062-065-220500-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1222 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
CHARLOTTE AND WESTERN LEE COUNTIES FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR SANIBEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH
WILL AFFECT SANIBEL...CAPE CORAL...WHISKEY CREEK AND PAGE PARK-PINE
MAN.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

[lester]

[Dave]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1253 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ055-060>062-065-220600-
DE SOTO-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1253 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLOTTE...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE...SOUTHEASTERN SARASOTA...SOUTHWESTERN DESOTO
AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 1246 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES
WEST OF MANASOTA KEY TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOCA GRANDE TO 29 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPTIVA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD TO 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANIBEL TO 31 MILES
WEST OF SANIBEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH WILL AFFECT BOCA
GRANDE...ENGLEWOOD...VENICE GARDENS AND WARM MINERAL SPRINGS.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.


&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

[Dave]

Cells ENE bound @ 114 AM EDT from KBYX Key West Radar:

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
122 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 60 NM

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 116 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 17 NM WEST OF NAPLES TO 44 NM NORTHEAST OF DRY
TORTUGAS...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY. BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE UNDER SAIL...SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THESE STRONG SHOWERS CAN ALSO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS AT ANYTIME.
YOUR BEST COURSE OF EVASIVE ACTION IF THREATENED BY A WATERSPOUT
IS TO MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS APPARENT MOVEMENT.
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning. The strong mid-upper Low is currently moving inland over North FLorida. Heavy rain currently falling at my location at 5:10 am.

[northjaxpro]

Tornado watch still in effect for South Florida until 7 a.m. The line of storms which I had anticipated last night to develop out ahead of the frontal boundary indeed occurred in the early morning hours. This line will push off the coast by 7 a.m.

[NDG]

FL saw more severe wx events on Friday than with the system on Saturday/Saturday night. What a bust.

[NDG]

This is the lowest pressure I have found across FL so far, so I guess the Low pressure came across Gainesville. It has been a long time that I have seen such low pressures with a non-tropical event across FL.

Code: Select all

Conditions at:  KGNV (GAINESVILLE , FL, US) observed 0853 UTC 22 April 2012 
Temperature:  17.2°C (63°F) 
Dewpoint:  16.1°C (61°F) [RH = 93%] 
Pressure (altimeter):  29.50 inches Hg (999.1 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 998.7 mb] 
Winds:  from the N (10 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.2 m/s) 
Visibility:  10 or more miles (16+ km) 
Ceiling:  10000 feet AGL 
Clouds:  broken clouds at 10000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 12000 feet AGL 
Weather:  -RA  (light rain


[NDG]

An MOS forecasted low of 37 degrees for Tallahassee for Tuesday morning, incredible for being late April.

Code: Select all

KTLH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/22/2012  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192     
 SUN  22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28| SUN 29 CLIMO
 X/N  77| 49  71| 37  74| 48  84| 56  86| 58  86| 60  86| 61  86 56 82
 TMP  73| 52  67| 42  68| 52  75| 59  77| 60  78| 63  78| 64  78     
 DPT  41| 42  33| 35  39| 45  51| 56  58| 56  57| 59  59| 60  61     
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| OV  CL     
 WND  22| 14  20| 12  16| 12  12| 10  16| 10   9|  6  10|  8  12     
 P12   8|  4   3|  1   4|  3   6|  7   7| 10  18| 14  21| 18  20 13 18
 P24    |      8|      4|      7|     10|     21|     24|     24    26
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  3   1|  6   1|  2   4|  1   3|  5  16|  6  17|  8  22     
 T24    |  3    |  6    |  2    |  4    | 11    | 28    | 22         
 PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  2   0|  1   1     
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0     
 PRS   1|  0   3|  3   1|  0   0|  1   0|  1   1|  2   0|  1   2     
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R     
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

[northjaxpro]

NDG, the MOS guidance is projecting 42 degrees for NWS Jax Tuesday morning also, with some spots I am sure across interior Northeast FL and SE Georgia forecast to dip into the upper 30s. It will be chilly considering that it is late April.

As I mentioned earlier a couple of days ago, it is a good thing that it is late April right now. If it was January, this would have been an incredible winter storm occurring over the Appalachians and areas of the Eastern US.

As a matter of fact, the dynamics of this current system affecting the Eastern US is so impressive in that enough cold air will be pulled down out of Eastern Canada where heavy wet snow is forecast tomorrow for Western NY and PA, down into the Appalachians in WV. Incredible we did not see this storm pattern the entire winter, only to have it in late April. Amazing.

[NDG]

Yeap, the storm that our friends along the mid Atlantic states waited for all winter long, I bet they are slamming their heads against the wall, what a waste for this time of the year, lol.

[northjaxpro]

I had a heavy rain band associated with the mid-upper Low moving through come right over my home location. This current band dropped just over 3/4 of an inch, bringing the total rain for this event at my location to just under 1.8 inches. Overall, I am happy to get that amount as we so badly need it. This brings my 2012 total to just over 5.3 inches.

Still well below the average rain total for where we should be for late April, but it is a start.

[northjaxpro]

The latest water vapor imagery.