Caribbean - Central America Weather

[chrisjslucia]

Unfortunately, much of the eastern Caribbean from Martinuque to Antigua will see a continuation of heavy rainfall with flash flooding through the end of the week. I just posted a discussion on this potential with forecast rain totals from today through Thursday across the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Discussion at http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6959

Hi Rob
Hope you're feeling better. The North of St Lucia is certainly catching this weather too. After a relatively dry morning, we are now having a real downpour and the forecast for tomorrow is for the heaviest rain of the week. Good luck to those in Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique who appear to be getting the brunt of this weather. Gusty, take care!

[cycloneye]

This is a message from a person in Martinique that typed it at Caribbean Hurricane Network site.

Big storm, electricity cuts

•By Matthew Cowen <matthew at virek.net>
•Date: Tue, 8 May 2012 13:40:18 -0400

Good afternoon everyone.

Confirming pretty much what was said about Dominica, we had an almighty storm
pass over this morning in the north of the island. Lots of thunder and
lightning, lots of rain and to top it off there are currently around 94000
people without electricity. EDF is doing its best and should have things back
to normal in the next couple of hours.

http://stormcarib.com/

[Gustywind]

Unfortunately, much of the eastern Caribbean from Martinuque to Antigua will see a continuation of heavy rainfall with flash flooding through the end of the week. I just posted a discussion on this potential with forecast rain totals from today through Thursday across the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Discussion at http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6959

Hi Rob
Hope you're feeling better. The North of St Lucia is certainly catching this weather too. After a relatively dry morning, we are now having a real downpour and the forecast for tomorrow is for the heaviest rain of the week. Good luck to those in Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique who appear to be getting the brunt of this weather. Gusty, take care!

Thanks my friend, i will take your luck . Be safe and dry too. Looks like wetter conditions should spread on us until the end of the week . I will keep you informed if things evolve in the butterfly island.

[Gustywind]

METEO.Orange vigilance maintained
franceantilles.fr08.05.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 169129.php

Despite a beautiful calm since the end of last night, conditions remain unstable. New stormy development are therefore possible locally this afternoon, the evening and early night next on the archipelago, which can still cause large accumulations of rain, but of lesser magnitude than yesterday.
A moist and unstable air mass is stagnant on the Caribbean arc for nearly a week, causing rain at times supported and thunderstorms. Quite exceptional rollups of rain have been recorded on the episode of rain last night. It is the pointoise agglomeration which has been most affected with the stagnation of an intense stormy phenomenon. In the past 24 hours, so there was more than 300 mm of water at the Raizet, including 178 mm in only 2 hours, which is a record that occurs only once a century. Of the gullet, from Petit-Bourg, Capesterre rollups are estimated between 100 and 300 mm, with for example 172 mm to Baie-Mahault. There was also on the side of Anse-Bertrand 102 mm in 12 hours.
Despite a beautiful calm since the end of last night, conditions remain unstable. New stormy development are therefore possible locally this afternoon, the evening and early night next on the archipelago, which can still cause large accumulations of rain, but of lesser magnitude than yesterday.
Soils are now saturated in water. Any shower or storm of intensive already affected areas is therefore likely to cause flooding, water overflows, cave-ins or landslides. Orange vigilance is therefore maintained.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested, here is the first pics of this nasty rain event yesterday. I'm a bit shocked to discover these pics in my small island, really impressive there Hopefully no fatalities reported this time but...another rounds could be on tape during the next days. Dont' let your guard down islanders from the EC!

The stigma of the abundant rains.
franceantilles.fr 08.05.2012
Thousands of motorists are found blocked much of the night. Traces of the incessant rain in the night are still visible this morning.
http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... #diaporama

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The trough that is still affecting the Leeward and Windward islands will retograde westward in the next few days causing the return of more rain to Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST TUE MAY 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHWEST JET CORE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEN SEVERAL SMALL
TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PUTTING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND FORCE THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA SOME DRY AIR
WILL BE IMPORTED FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MIXED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A
DRYING TREND...THAT WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A NEARLY RAIN FREE MORNING OVER PUERTO RICO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLODED OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRIER PERIOD THAT THE REST OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS
STATIONARY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AS AIR FROM WEST AFRICA BEGINS TO SEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE WIDER AREA
HOWEVER...TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST THEN ARRIVES AND BRINGS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A
TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT RAIN NOW THROUGH FRIDAY FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/00Z OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT TAF SITES WILL BE LITTLE AFFECTED EXCEPT FOR TJSJ LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR IN TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 09/22Z. LLVL WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SE AND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ABOVE 10 KFT ARE WSW-W INCREASING TO 70 KTS NEAR 40 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDS REMAIN TRANQUIL AT 4 FEET OR LESS...BUT
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY NOW THROUGH TUESDAY TO 6 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 84 / 20 20 40 70
STT 76 86 77 85 / 30 30 50 60

[cycloneye]

Here is a photo of interior Puerto Rico on Tuesday afternoon where the water overflows a dam.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST TUE MAY 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LOCAL WATERS JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND AROUND SAINT THOMAS. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS OROCOVIS AND CIALES. 09/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
MOISTURE INCREASED TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY RAIN. SOUNDERS AT ISABELA AND SAINT
CROIX REPORTED LESS THAN 1.6 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE AROUND
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED IT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SHOWERS
ARE INCREASING OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE STILL ACTIVE BUT SHOULD NOT AGGRAVATE
THE FLOODING ANYMORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT CAN BE CONSIDERED THAT THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT THE HEATING WHICH DROVE THE CONVERGENCE THAT
CAUSED THIS AFTERNOON`S DELUGES AND ALTHOUGH SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEEN FIGURED INTO TOMORROWS FORECAST
AND WILL LEAVE IT AS IS.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully it will be drier than normal by the 2nd half of the month, in Central America it may be the opposite with above average rainfall if the models verify, some of them are ven hinting at development near the region (EPAC or West Caribbean).

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America for May 7 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Near normal in El Salvador and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.8°C (47.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.3°C (50.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.5°C (59.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala and Honduras. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua and COsta Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 34.1°C (93.4°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 29 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.7°C (94.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.8°C (76.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another round of plenty of rain will occur mainly this afternoon,but this time will be more widespread and may last until the night.Thursday will be the rainest day according to the forecast so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST AND BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT
IS TO THEN SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A 60 TO 70 KNOT JET MAX WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THUS INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE ENHANCED
CONVECTION. A BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHERE IT
MERGES WITH ANOTHER OLD FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP CREATE A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AGAIN PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER
TODAY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE BASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL FAVOR DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND GREATLY ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS MOIST PATTERN IS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THEREFORE
CONSIDERING THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM AND WELL AS FLASH FLOODING...
AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WHERE SOIL REMAINS LOOSE AND
SATURATED.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. BTW 09/16Z AND 09/22Z...MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJMZ
AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5
KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 30 40 70 50
STT 85 76 86 77 / 30 50 60 60

[chrisjslucia]

More rain in St Lucia, just checked the French Met radar and it looks as if Martinique is just about to get a broadside hit of more rain this afternoon from the West / South West.

[Gustywind]

METEO.Back to yellow but degradation expected tonight

franceantilles.fr09.05.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 169129.php


The risk of heavy showers persisted on our archipelago today. Be carefull, a new storm-thunderstorm deterioration is expected for this night and especially Thursday and during the evening. Can expect therefore of large clap of thunder with sometimes beautiful lightning.
A moist and unstable air mass is stagnant on the Caribbean arc from almost a week, causing rains at times supported and thunderstorms. The quite exceptional rollups have been identified on the wet episode of before last night, especially in les Abymes. In 24 hours there:-313 mm to the Raizet Abymes (including 195 mm in 3 hours).
-at Baie-Mahault convenience 174 mm (including 105 mm in 3 hours),
-Usually between 20 to 70 mm on the other communes.
The risk of heavy showers persisted on our archipelago today. Attention, a new storm-thunderstorm degradation is expected for this night and especially Thursday day and evening. Can expect therefore of large clap of thunder with sometimes beautiful lightning.
Soils are now saturated in water. Any shower or storm of intensive already affected areas is therefore likely to cause flooding, water overflows, cave-ins or landslides. Attention also to the risk of lightning strikes.

[Gustywind]

Here is another pics of the torrential rains spreading tremendously Monday night on Guadeloupe. View diaporam
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 169198.php

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

This incredible photo from tuesday of the raging river that overflowed the town of Comerio in interior Puerto Rico. But the good news is that no fatalitles occured as there were no people in the cars at the time.

[Gustywind]

This incredible photo from tuesday of the raging river that overflowed the town of Comerio in interior Puerto Rico. But the good news is that no fatalitles occured as there were no people in the cars at the time.

Very impressive pic Luis!!!!Waouw, furious Mother Nature !!! No fatalities good point.

[Gustywind]

To have a better idea of what happened Monday night in Guadeloupe, look at the title of our daily newspaper called "FranceAntilles".

Flood and anxiety

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. As mentioned earlier,it looks like tommorow will be the most rainy day for Puerto Rico. I will keep all informed about the flooding news as they come.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST NORTHWEST AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...INDUCING A MOIST SURGE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS...SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER ACTIVE SPELL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE FA FOR
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AIR FOR
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH AN ATTEMPT AT MID LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE
NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT THE MUCH "DRIER" SCENARIO...BUT FEEL THAT
THIS MOST LIKELY TRANSLATES INTO STILL RATHER ACTIVE CONDITIONS
FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS BUSY AS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...MORE LOCALIZED
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET GROUNDS AND ABOVE NORMAL RIVER
LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...AND THE CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MORE
PREVALENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 09/23Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITE. AFTER 09/23Z...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AND AROUND TISX AND TKPK FOR TONIGHT
CAUSING POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 86 / 40 70 50 50
STT 76 86 77 85 / 50 60 60 60

[Gustywind]

METEO. The ever present risk of heavy showers
franceantilles.fr09.05.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 169129.php


The risk of heavy showers, sometimes stormy, persists in our archipelago the next night and tomorrow. Soils are saturated in water. Therefore, any shower or thunderstorm is likely to quickly lead to flooding, water overflows, cave-ins or landslides.
The risk of heavy showers, sometimes stormy, persists in our archipelago the next night and tomorrow. A moist and unstable air mass is stagnant on the Caribbean arc for nearly a week, causing rain at times supported and thunderstorms. The quite exceptional rollups have been identified on the wet episode of before last night, especially in les Abymes. In 24 hours, there were: 313 mm (litres of water per square metre) to the Raizet Abymes (including 195 mm in 3 hours), 174 mm at Baie-Mahault convenience (including 105 mm in 3 hours), usually between 20 and 70 mm on the other communes.
Soils are saturated in water. Therefore, any shower or thunderstorm is likely to quickly lead to flooding, water overflows, cave-ins or landslides. Attention also to the risk of lightning strikes.