EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

According to CIMSS ADT position estimates...the convection is off to the west of the center. Also, they *might* be toying around with the idea of an upgrade, as MIMIC says "Tropical Storm Two".

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/4244/02e.gif

It may come up to a last minute decision to upgrade or not after the NHC forecasters meet and discuss the latest data that they may have.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

According to CIMSS ADT position estimates...the convection is off to the west of the center. Also, they *might* be toying around with the idea of an upgrade, as MIMIC says "Tropical Storm Two".

The center was positioned entirely too far west. It should be on the eastern edge of the convection ball.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 101.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY...AND A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS MORE
ORGANIZED THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SINCE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS
AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...ALTHOUGH
EARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST. THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR...COULD SLOW THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...CAUSING SHEAR TO DIMINISH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A
FAST RATE OF STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS...AND ENDS UP CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL AT 48 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
COULD INCREASE AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER NOW...ABOUT
290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK CHANGING TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ONE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...AND LARGE
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 9.8N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 10.5N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 11.6N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 12.7N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 13.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 17.5N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 18.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, still no upgrade.

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT
WINDS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...
THE SECOND OF THE 2012 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY TODAY. BY
TONIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUD. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING
SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES DURING THE PAST
12-18 HOURS SHOWS THAT BUD IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...295/10 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND BECOMES QUITE LARGE. THERE ARE
BASICALLY TWO CAMPS OF MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE...THOSE THAT SHOW A
DEEPER TROUGH WHICH CAUSES BUD TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MEXICO...AND A SECOND GROUP THAT TURNS BUD NORTHEASTWARD...BUT
SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT NEARS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD
FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 10.4N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 12.4N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.3N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.3N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[brunota2003]

Hello Bud, welcome to the world!

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD
FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.

[cycloneye]

This is this morning's discussion of Bud by Dr Jeff Masters. I am with him about the potential for massive floodings if Bud stalls.

Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.

[cycloneye]

There will be a possible mission for Bud on Wednesday.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 13.5N 105.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

[Yellow Evan]

Note:If you included CPAC storms, Bud would be #2 behind 1992.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

EP, 02, 2012052212, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1036W, 35, 1004, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Chacor]

Note:If you included CPAC storms, Bud would be #2 behind 1992.

Yes, and you have repeatedly been told the EPAC and CPAC are separate, to the extent that even the NHC's database treats it as such (as per the discussion). Can you please drop that whole crap now? The EPAC and CPAC are different basins.

[cycloneye]

The new plan of the day for 5/22/12 is out and rolls the first mission from Wednesday to Thursday. If this new plan stays,a full TCPOD will be up by Wednesday morning.


NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 22 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-004

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO TROPICAL
STORM BUD NEAR 15.0N 106.5W FOR 24/2000Z.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...BUD MAINTAINING 40-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REAMIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BUD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

WITHOUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE
CENTER OF BUD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH DOES KEEP THE CENTER
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MANUAL AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL YIELD AN INTENSITY AROUND 35
KT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING WESTWARD...AND BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODELS FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUD SHOULD STILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3 WHEN IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...BUT SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREVENTING
BUD FROM REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST. THE ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER ON DAY 3...BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF MODELS...BUT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS BUD STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ON THOSE DAYS.

APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO TONE
DOWN THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL
SHOWS BUD REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 11.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[GCANE]

High rain rate cell very close to the COC - looks like Bud's core is heating up.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.58pc.jpg

[cycloneye]

The 8 AM PDT track that doesn't make landfall on the coast. They also downgraded the intensity with peak now at 70kts.

[Yellow Evan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Will likely get much stronger than that IMO (note that my predictions are unofficial, see NHC for offical products), but very weird track predicted.

[cycloneye]

If the shear keeps up and mantains the center displaced from the main convection,then it may never reach hurricane status as it has been forecast. When this all started as a invest,the expectations were that this would be one of the big ones of the EPAC 2012 season with a major impact somewhere in the Mexican Riviera coast. But mother nature has always the upper hand and throws curveballs to what is expected to occur. Let's see what occurs in the next couple of days and see if Bud can get stronger,or it turns out to be another Aletta.

[CrazyC83]

What is the SHIPS shear model saying?

[CrazyC83]

Has Bud been on BC Bud (the famous marijuana plant) and that has stopped development?

[cycloneye]

What is the SHIPS shear model saying?

This was from Monday's 12z SHIP run and it had relativly little shear from then thru today,but we have seen that shear has continued.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)         8     7    10    11    10     7     5     5     7    12     9    10     9