Florida Weather

[dizzyfish]

Some very welcome drought relief will come from Beryl. We managed to squeeze out just over 1" from a surprise storm Thursday and are hoping for more.

In other news - we learned a new weather word this morning from the local weather girl. I will attempt to spell it - COLLAPSIFIED. No really - we ran it back and listened FOUR times.

[northjaxpro]

5 am advisory shows Beryl has picked up some forward speed, moving west-southwest at 10 mph now and is also now beginning to move more westward according to NHC. Still classified as subtropical. Time running out for the transition to tropical. Max winds 50 mph currently. Pressure at 998 mb.

Landfall is expected sometime after 8:00 pm around the Jacksonville area. I'll be busy today, but I will try to keep everyone abreasted with the conditions here in Jax as Beryl makes landfall, the first cyclone to make a landfall directly from the east here since Hurricane Dora in 1964.

Also, for others who are in the warning area besides me, keep us updated right here on this thread with reports and images/photos up and down the Florida East Coast from Titusville northward. (The TS warning area).

Those living along the Southeast GA coast would love to hear from you as well.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax office projecting center of Beryl to come ashore right around midnight at either Jacksonville Beach or Ponte Vedra Beach.


SHORT TERM...

AS OF 2 AM...BERYL WAS LOCATED 230 MILES EAST OF JAX AND BANDS ARE
BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON RADAR...APPROX 110 MILES OFF THE COAST.
CURRENT TRACK PROJECTS LANDFALL AT MIDNIGHT NEAR PONTE VEDRA/JAX
BEACH AND BY 8 AM TO BE OVER BAKER COUNTY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES INLAND
WITH A T.S. WATCH FARTHER INLAND. REFER TO HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS FOR COMPLETE INFORMATION ON WINDS...FLOODING...COASTAL
HAZARDS. IN THE MEANTIME...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL START THE DAY
THEN DETERIORATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL WATERS ARE ALREADY
FEELING EFFECTS OF BERYL WITH WINDS/SEAS INCREASING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. HAVE CHANGED VERY
LITTLE CONCERNING POPS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90%) SPREADING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COAST.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR GA/FL BORDER MONDAY RESULTING IN
WET AND WINDY DAY FOR THE LOCAL AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
TUESDAY ALLOWING TRPCL DEPRESSION BERYL TO DRIFT NEWD. SINCE THE
OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE ECMWF...HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THIS MODEL FOR POPS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS TUE...THEN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY.

NWS Jax web briefing on Beryl:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm

[NDG]

Back in Orlando.
Very warm and muggy in between showers, very tropical like with the flow coming in from GOM into TD Beryl.

[gsytch]

Nothing more than a spritz here or there. A few "gusts" to 15-20mph on occasion of the GOM from the SW, but just high overcast. Even some sun breaking through. No measurable rainfall since the downpour Sun at 6am (10 mins but 3/4") Where are the torrents of rainfall?

[thetruesms]

They all went to Lafayette County, apparently

[northjaxpro]

The total rain accumulation that I measured at my residence in north Jax from Beryl was just under 8 inches. I can't express enough how much this rain was an absolute blessing! Beryl alone has just about caught us up to what the average year-to-date should be for the NE FL area . Truly amazing.

The heat is back in a big way in the wake of Beryl. Temps back to the low 90s as we should expect of course and it looks like only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms into the weekend.

[gsytch]

We finally got a day of rain with some heavy storms, perhaps 1.25" on Tues. total but it was much heavier to the north. May's total is now well over 4" which is a blessing, too. May can be so hot and dry here. Let us keep that rainy season rolling!

[EmeraldCoast93]

Wish we could have gotten some rain from Beryl (really anywhere at this point) here in the western panhandle... now we are under a Dense Smoke Advisory because of a wildfire has spread to 1500+ acres north of Hurlburt Field.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/articles/fi ... dfire.html

[NDG]

Man its been very warm and humid in the mornings during the past week or so here in the Orlando area, I cannot remember such humid conditions so early during the past few years. We usually do not see this humidity such high until later during the month of June.
Looks like high dewpoints are going to go away for a couple of days this weekend but they will be back in revenge by Monday, got to love Neutral Enso years.

[thetruesms]

The total rain accumulation that I measured at my residence in north Jax from Beryl was just under 8 inches. I can't express enough how much this rain was an absolute blessing! Beryl alone has just about caught us up to what the average year-to-date should be for the NE FL area . Truly amazing.

The heat is back in a big way in the wake of Beryl. Temps back to the low 90s as we should expect of course and it looks like only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms into the weekend.

Now to just catch up with all that's been missed in 2011 and the second half of 2010!

[northjaxpro]

The total rain accumulation that I measured at my residence in north Jax from Beryl was just under 8 inches. I can't express enough how much this rain was an absolute blessing! Beryl alone has just about caught us up to what the average year-to-date should be for the NE FL area . Truly amazing.

The heat is back in a big way in the wake of Beryl. Temps back to the low 90s as we should expect of course and it looks like only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms into the weekend.

Now to just catch up with all that's been missed in 2011 and the second half of 2010!

Yeah, I wish we could make up for that my friend. You are right, technically speaking we have been running much below the average rain totals for much of North Florida during those times you specified.

I am just basing my analysis for the year-to date average since January 1, 2012. Beryl has about caught us up for where we should be for rainfall year-to-date in Jax. But again on the whole scope North FL in many locations are still in the midst of a harsh drought for sure.

[thetruesms]

Yes, even if it doesn't wipe out all the drought, it is nice to get a dent. Although even though I wasn't expecting a huge change, it did surprise me a touch just how much extreme drought remains in NE Florida, even after Beryl's rain.

[gsytch]

It just poured and poured with nearly 3" more in the gauge. The month's total is now over 7", such a welcome relief in a typically dry month. I hope this keeps up for the rainy season!

[gsytch]

Chances of rainfall are going up again this week. Another tropical squeeze play with a front stalling just north of Tampa Bay and moisture funnels in from the tropics. Wow could it be? More rainfall? Hmmm ...........

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I do not expect anything tropical out of the disturbed weather in the gulf due to high wind shear, but I think that once that moisture combines with the front dropping through FL that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop somewhere North of Tampa and South of Jacksonville. The nature coast will most likely see the impacts of this line. Across Tampa Bay, breezy to windy conditions are likely with a west wind of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the beaches. Rain chances are lower over the Tampa Bay area and severe storms do not appear to be a threat for Tampa Bay at this time.

Heavy rain over the entire area becomes more likely thursday/friday based on a stalling front and moisture funneling from the SW.

[northjaxpro]

SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for much of North Florida and the panhandle region until 9:00 pm EDT. This inclues the metro areas of Panama City, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville.

[NDG]

Rain coverage across parts of central FL are a bit higher than forecasted with some very heavy rains.

[northjaxpro]

Very intense thunderstorms firing across Southeast Georgia drifting slowly east-eoutheast. More thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon with plenty of heating and instability to fuel the storms. Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for most of north Florida until 9:00 pm EDT.

Also, plenty of thunderstorm activity down in central peninsula today as well as NDG referenced above. Good photos too NDG!

[JonathanBelles]

Plentiful rains coming; flooding possible:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... l-squeeze/