Which storms will be the big ones in 2012?

[Hurricane Jed]

We need give the Eastern Pacific some love too. Aletta, Bud, Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Hector, Ileana, John, Kristy, Lane, Miriam, Norman, Olivia, Paul, Rosa, Sergio, Tara, Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke

My money is on Ileana to be the most impactful/significant storm in the Eastern Pacific.

[JtSmarts]

Chris, Debby, Florence; two of these three imo. I'm also thinking Alberto could be a problem similar to Alberto of 94'.

Alberto: Gulf Tropical Storm in Late June
Beryl: TS in August
Chris: Slow Moving Cat 2 Yucatan Hit in Mid August,
Debby: Cat 2 in FL/ Cat 3 in N. Mexico
Ernesto: Weak Atlantic TS Early September
Florence: Cat 3 in NC Early-Mid September
Gordon: TS Hit BOC - Mid September
Helene: Strongest Hurricane of the year 145 MPH FISH Late September
Isaac: Weak TS FISH - Mid October
Joyce: 90 MPH Hurricane in Cuba with a close call in FL - Mid-Late October
Kirk and Leslie: Late October - Early November tropical storms that really don't matter.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't do thinking of big ones for the upcoming season. However, I will bite it and say probably Alberto, Chris, and Gordon are the big ones.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I am not really predicting but, as usual, my wish is that IF there have to be storms which cause enough damage to have their names retired, Beryl and Ernesto would be the ones. That's simply because so few B and E names have been retired compared to the other letters in the first half of the alphabet. There has never been a male E name retired, so I'd be rooting for Ernesto if there has to be one.

I'd least like to see Florence or Isaac be retired because so many F and I names have been, and F and I are the letters in the first half of the alphabet where it's hardest to find good replacement names. We've used up many of the obvious ones already.

[CrazyC83]

I think there will be a few EPAC classics too, since El Nino tends to do that. If we get El Nino plus the majors of 2011 in the EPAC, look out!!!

Good consensus on the big Atlantic storms being in the early part of the alphabet.

[AnnularCane]

So far, Florence and Gordon are standing out. Of course, my predictions are far as who will be the big storms tend to backfire, so I probably just jinxed both of them.

I also have a slight feeling about Chris, but the question here is, will the "curse of Chris" be broken this year or not?

[vbhoutex]

Alberto, Debby, Issac are the ones that get my notice.

Alberto: Develops in the BOC and wanders North and as it develops into a TS turns ENE just before reaching the coast of LA as a 50 mph TS which unleashes 20+ inches of rain along a swath of the N Gulf coast from NO to Destin. Finally disipates as it wanders across the FL panhandle and S GA. Tries to regenerate in the ATL but is swept out to sea before it can. June 7-13.
Beryl: TS develops just N of Hispaniola and heads N through the Bahamas as it grows to a 70 mph TS over the Gulf Stream. Threatens NC but turns NE and ENE and passes S of Bermuda before dieing. July 14-21.
Chris: Develops from a TW in the Central Caribbean just S of Jamaica. Slow Moving Cat 1 into Belize and disipates over Mexico. August 14-19
Debby: Develops a CV wave just N of the islands. Continues West and slams Key West as Cat 3. Continues W as a high end Cat 3 into Central GOM. Early season front stalls it and then takes it E across Tampa/St. Pete and continues ENE out into ATL. August 26-Sept 5
Ernesto: Spins up in E Atlantic and peaks at 65 mph. Tracks West for 2 days before recurving NE. September 3-6.
Florence: Cat 1 spin up in S Caribbean into Nicaraugua and Costa Rica boundary and crosses into EPAC as a TD. September 10-14 in ATL basin.
Gordon: TS develops just S of PR. Heads N as 55 mph TS and continues N and NE into ATL. Surprisingly dry TS - October 1-3
Helene: Strongest Hurricane of the year 145 MPH fish recurves E of Bermuda. October 1-7
Isaac: Begins as a TD off the NE coast of Nicaragua, brushes the NE Yucatan as a 70 mph TS and continues NW to landfall as a CAT2 or low end CAT3 on Texas coast between Matgorda and Freeport. Turns N just after landfall and pounds SE TX and especially Western Houston area with torrential flooding rains up to 15". Fortunately wind field is small and surge and wind damage are less than expected for a storm of this strength. October 16-22
Joyce: Quick TD spin up just off the coast of FL near Miami. Continues N about 50 miles off shore until getting picked up by incoming front near Jacksonville and swept out into ATL. Despite Gulf Stream warmth it doesn't attain TS status because of shear. October 27-31.
Kirk: Late November surprise. Spins up in NE Caribbean. Crosses Northern Islands as a developing TD. Gains Hurricane status briefly about 150 miles N of islands. Heads NE and disapates. November 23-27

[CrazyC83]

In 2009, there was little consensus - and rightfully so since we were in the same position we are now, facing a likely El Nino.

In 2010, everyone picked Igor as the big one early - and it was.

In 2011, everyone picked Emily as the big one early - and that one backfired badly.

[StormClouds63]

Chris and Florence. Overall, early guess is 12/6/2.

[cycloneye]

By looking at what it has been posted here so far,it stands out a slow season for 2012,but as we know,it only takes one to do all the harm no matter how many named storms form.Also,where will those that form will track is very important,of course.

A reminder that the Storm2k numbers poll for the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season will start on April 1rst at 3:00 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Bumping this thread to get some more replies about this question.

[somethingfunny]

Beryl!

[northjaxpro]

Beryl!

Well, for a 60 knot tropical cyclone, Beryl wasn't too shabby at all. Could have been a whole lot worse of course. If Beryl would have had a couple of more hours over the Gulf Stream she could have attained hurricane status for sure. Knocked out my power for nearly two days and felled a couple of trees here and there near my home. Thankful for the 8 inches of rain she gave my location for the two days she impacted the Jax area.

Looking over everyone's predictions on here a few months back on this thread, no one was dead on close with the unexpected early developments of Alberto and Beryl, as I would expect.

Vbhoutex had a decent prediction with Beryl reviewing the post above predicting a 70 mph strong TS moving over the Gulf Stream threatening the North Carolina coast but heading northeast out to sea. Actually this did come to fruition in some aspects as Beryl did perform a cyclonic loop about 120 miles southeast off the coast of Wilmington, NC. It was subtropical of course at that time. However, rather than go out to sea, the blocking High Pressure forced her to move southwest to eventually due west to come my way for landfall here in Jax where she did transition to be a 65-70mph TS. Still, considering that you ventured this prediction back in March vbhoutex, you were the closest among everyone else about Beryl. Not bad at all!

[CrazyC83]

If Beryl is the big one, then this would be a pretty quiet season for landfalls at least...

[StormClouds63]

Chris and Florence. Overall, early guess is 12/6/2.

I'm already wrong regarding "Chris."

[TheBurn]

...Chris-June 17

Nice!

Wiki: "On June 17, a low pressure area developed from a stalled out frontal boundary near Bermuda. Atop warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear, the low pressure gradually acquired tropical characteristics the following day, and during the afternoon hours of June 19, after sustaining deep thunderstorm activity for a sufficient amount of time, the National Hurricane Center began writing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris. Tropical Storm Chris also set a record for the third earliest third tropical cyclone formation for any season, behind Tropical Storm Three in 1887 and the Escuminac hurricane in 1959."

[TheStormExpert]

Florence: (A Dangerous Cat. 2 Hurricane, Big In Size)
Helene: (Remains Just a T.S. But Is Very Wet, Messy, & Slow In Motion. It Makes Landfall Near Galveston, TX.)
Isaac: (Cat. 4 Hurricane, Small To Average In Size For a Hurricane)

[HurricaneRyan]

Florence, Gordon, Helene, & Isaac all have the vibes.

[vbhoutex]

Beryl!

Well, for a 60 knot tropical cyclone, Beryl wasn't too shabby at all. Could have been a whole lot worse of course. If Beryl would have had a couple of more hours over the Gulf Stream she could have attained hurricane status for sure. Knocked out my power for nearly two days and felled a couple of trees here and there near my home. Thankful for the 8 inches of rain she gave my location for the two days she impacted the Jax area.

Looking over everyone's predictions on here a few months back on this thread, no one was dead on close with the unexpected early developments of Alberto and Beryl, as I would expect.

Vbhoutex had a decent prediction with Beryl reviewing the post above predicting a 70 mph strong TS moving over the Gulf Stream threatening the North Carolina coast but heading northeast out to sea. Actually this did come to fruition in some aspects as Beryl did perform a cyclonic loop about 120 miles southeast off the coast of Wilmington, NC. It was subtropical of course at that time. However, rather than go out to sea, the blocking High Pressure forced her to move southwest to eventually due west to come my way for landfall here in Jax where she did transition to be a 65-70mph TS. Still, considering that you ventured this prediction back in March vbhoutex, you were the closest among everyone elses about Beryl. Not bad at all!

LOL! I hadn't ventured back to this thread till just now. What a surprise. Just looked at my Debby prediction. Got the stall and crossing FL right. Nothing else about it though, thank goodness.

[Andrew92]

OK I originally picked Ernesto and Isaac. Thinking about how the rest of this season will play out, in my opinion, I am sticking with Isaac, but not Ernesto. Here is my rundown, now that I have a feel for this year.

Ernesto - forms within the next two weeks or so off the East Coast from a frontal system and heads out to sea quickly, topping at 60-65 mph.

Florence - weak Gulf of Mexico tropical storm in mid-August, strikes Mississippi or Alabama with winds of 45-50 mph, also fast moving so even rain impacts aren't too great

Gordon - forms off the Florida coast in mid-to-late August and heads very slowly northward for a few days. It gradually reaches the Gulf Stream and tops at 100-105 mph. Weakens only a little before reaching North Carolina with winds of 85-90 mph. It then scoots eastward out to sea. Think Charley in 1986, but stronger and a bit later.

Helene - a very impressive C3 or C4 storm of Cape Verde origin around Labor Day, a true beauty to behold. Fortunately, it also re-curves quickly and never hits land.

Isaac - the tropical wave that spawns him comes right on the heels of Helene and struggles for days. This causes Isaac to be steered by the lower-level flow at first, taking him further west towards the Caribbean. Although an El Nino year usually means more hostile conditions here, Isaac beats the odds and becomes a C3 storm before barreling into Central America, namely Honduras and Guatemala. Weakens to a remnant low over land, then crosses into the EPAC to become C4 Hurricane Lane, which never hits land again.

Joyce - mid-September strongish tropical storm that hits Louisiana and causes heavy flooding. Similar to Frances in 1998 and Fay in 2002.

Kirk - October storm that develops off a front near the Bahamas and never really gets off the ground. Peaks at 40-45 mph before dissipating near Bermuda.

So, barring unnamed storms, I am going with 11/4/2.

-Andrew92