Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

the 18z does have development?

Has a weak low in southern Gulf on the 18th, moving across south FL and off the Carolinas by the 20th then out to sea. Peaks out at around 1005mb.

[Aric Dunn]

the 18z does have development?

Has a weak low in southern Gulf on the 18th, moving across south FL and off the Carolinas by the 20th then out to sea. Peaks out at around 1005mb.

right, and for the gfs 1005 mb is pretty good. lol

[cycloneye]

the 18z does have development?

Compared it with the 12z run that had a stronger system,the 18z has a wimpy.

[Aric Dunn]

the 18z does have development?

Compared it with the 12z run that had a stronger system,the 18z has a wimpy.

well yeah.

[arp2559]

the 18z does have development?

Has a weak low in southern Gulf on the 18th, moving across south FL and off the Carolinas by the 20th then out to sea. Peaks out at around 1005mb.

Again, the pressure and storm depiction from the GFS can not be viewed as a storms true intensity. It just can not be done. I've never understood why people insist on using GFS model output as storm intensity. If whatever intensity the GFS was showing was the actual intensity of every storm the last 10 years then we've never had anything above a high end category 1 hurricane.

[ROCK]

18z NOGAPS

for what its worth- which is squat... but it does show something in the NW Carib moving towards the GOM at 180hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

With the Euro and GFS on board in the long range, that is a good sign. Of course the GFS is going to go back and forth. Good signals something is going to get going.

[Ivanhater]

FIM Model agrees as well, although later in the period.

[Dean4Storms]

You have to give this more weight now with so many of the Global Models depicting something in one form or the other.

[Aric Dunn]

With the Euro and GFS on board in the long range, that is a good sign. Of course the GFS is going to go back and forth. Good signals something is going to get going.

yeah it has been going back and forth but a couple days now every run has had some sort of development is good consistency. especially for the GFS.

[MGC]

If this verifies the GFS will have picked up all three this season.....right?.......MGC

[USTropics]

0z GFS showing another consistent run with the northwestern Caribbean system. Low pressure forms over Central America between 150-170 hours, moves into the northwestern Caribbean, and slowly strengthens before moving north into the GOM. One other interesting note is a competing vorticity in close approximation trying to develop in the Pacific around the same time. We've seen this a few times before where slow development occurs before one vorticity finally wins out, with the GFS supporting the development of the northwestern Caribbean system (future forecast/approximation of Carlotta appears to be inhibiting the vorticity in the Pacific on this GFS run). Needless to say, a lot of variables are present but consistency is the key here.

[Kingarabian]

If this verifies the GFS will have picked up all three this season.....right?.......MGC

Yeah true. But the previous storm, it did terrible in predicting it's intensity compared with the Euro.

[ROCK]

0z NOGAPS at 180hr....another model coming on board.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Rgv20]

Well one can always count on the CMC...this is the new 0z run valid for day 10 (Monday Evening June 18th)

[somethingfunny]

We have splashdown on the 00z Euro, 192 hours / June 17:

[somethingfunny]

The run is finished, 240hr / June 19:

[somethingfunny]

A couple of notes:

1) That confusing feedback that was in the Bay of Campeche on the 12z run competing with this system in the Gulf is gone; the 00z run clearly shows Carlotta in the EPAC at the same timeframe.

2) Ridging builds west from 168hr-192hr, and continues to build west a bit towards 240hr, but more slowly. The Euro seems to be depicting a potential hit for Upper Texas or Louisiana, or it could slide into South Texas or Mexico, depending on what the ridge does. There's a strong surface low being depicted in the Texas Panhandle on 6/19, but no real strong trough to erode that ridge on the horizon. A lot will depend on how strong this potential "Chris" becomes. The 12z Euro tomorrow could also revert to what the earlier 12z Euro run had - a much more eastern track.

Now that the Euro has added consecutive run consistency into the already established model agreement, I feel pretty confident that something's going to form here in this timeline.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

This is this morning's discussion by Rob of Crown Weather of the model scenarios that may lead to Tropical Development in the NW Caribbean/GOM.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7007

[thundercam96]

Could this system be a Florida threat? How are the intensity models doing on the system that is supposed to develop?




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