ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

#2141 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:11 pm

Hmm, surprised. Don't think we will go back to La Nina though.

#2142 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:12 pm

Luis,

Where are you getting the CPC values for Nino 3.4? The website I've been using for weekly values hasn't updated since May 16:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for

#2143 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:15 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Hmm, surprised. Don't think we will go back to La Nina though.

No return to La Nina for the rest of 2012. Or is going to stay Neutral or El Nino comes will be the outcome for the rest of this year as none of the ENSO models go back to below -0.5C.

#2144 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Luis,

Where are you getting the CPC values for Nino 3.4? The website I've been using for weekly values hasn't updated since May 16:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for

Scroll way down and you will see all the Nino 3.4 past values.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

weatherdude1108 · #2145 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:58 pm

On Page 24 of the ENSO analysis, did anyone notice that, so far, the ONI numbers from DJF 2012 EXACTLY match the ONI numbers from DJF 2006?

My question is does that mean anything as far as any similarities to 2006, or is it just chance? I know the numbers could change next month. Anyway, thought it was interesting. Thanks for any insight. :wink:

#2146 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jun 11, 2012 6:41 pm

^ 2006 has been a quiet analog. Evolution has some similarities but the biggest difference is that it was coming after a neutral year vs la nina. 30 day running SOI is getting closer to -8 just about a bit over a point to go. Another week or two of negative 10 or more could bring it to that threshold.

SOI values for 11 Jun 2012
Average for last 30 days -6.7
Average for last 90 days -3.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -21.1

Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4

dexterlabio · #2147 Postby **dexterlabio** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:05 am

If the 30-day ave SOI hit -8.00, will that mean anything?

joshb19882004 · #2148 Postby **joshb19882004** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:16 am

daily soi has push the 30 day soi to -8.00 if its still a - value tomorrow then its in el nino range
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

joshb19882004 · #2149 Postby **joshb19882004** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:18 am

i should rephrase could push into el nino range

euro6208 · #2150 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:13 am

rapidly falling...below -8.0 means el nino...

Average for last 30 days -8.0
Average for last 90 days -3.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -20.7

el nino should be here soon ...

#2151 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:10 am

Hmm, the 2006 comparison is interesting. Now that SOI is failing, El Nino should be here soon.

#2152 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:43 pm

Lets see if we can sustain the -8 or lower SOI. The MJO has quickly moved into phase 7. This continues to add onto signs that the nino is well on it's way imo.

Cyclenall · #2153 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:32 pm

I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.

bg1 · #2154 Postby **bg1** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:07 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.

I think an SOI below -8 just means conditions are more conducive for El Nino.

#2155 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 5:19 pm

bg1 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.

I think an SOI below -8 just means conditions are more conducive for El Nino.

I think this is right. SOI is not the determining factor if it is officially nina/nino but represents the weather pattern in the atmosphere. Sustained -8 or more indicates the weather pattern in the southern ocean will likely develop and maintain El Nino, vice versa for La Nina.

#2156 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 5:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bg1 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.

I think an SOI below -8 just means conditions are more conducive for El Nino.

I think this is right. SOI is not the determining factor if it is officially nina/nino but represents the weather pattern in the atmosphere. Sustained -8 or more indicates the weather pattern in the southern ocean will likely develop and maintain El Nino, vice versa for La Nina.

The important word is sustained. If we see the SOI below 8 for many days and weeks,then El Nino is a sure thing. But if it goes up and down from -8 to -4 then go down again to -9,go up to -5,that signals no El Nino yet.

#2157 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:05 pm

Wow major tankage by the SOI.

#2158 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:01 pm

Honestly think its going be El-Nino'ing. Realllllly hot summer here in Hawaii compared to last years.

#2159 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:16 pm

You guys have invented some interesting verbs in this thread. :lol:

#2160 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:35 pm

El Nino is coming!

ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

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