ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C
Luis,
Where are you getting the CPC values for Nino 3.4? The website I've been using for weekly values hasn't updated since May 16:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for
Where are you getting the CPC values for Nino 3.4? The website I've been using for weekly values hasn't updated since May 16:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Hmm, surprised. Don't think we will go back to La Nina though.
No return to La Nina for the rest of 2012. Or is going to stay Neutral or El Nino comes will be the outcome for the rest of this year as none of the ENSO models go back to below -0.5C.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C
wxman57 wrote:Luis,
Where are you getting the CPC values for Nino 3.4? The website I've been using for weekly values hasn't updated since May 16:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for
Scroll way down and you will see all the Nino 3.4 past values.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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On Page 24 of the ENSO analysis, did anyone notice that, so far, the ONI numbers from DJF 2012 EXACTLY match the ONI numbers from DJF 2006?
My question is does that mean anything as far as any similarities to 2006, or is it just chance? I know the numbers could change next month. Anyway, thought it was interesting. Thanks for any insight.
My question is does that mean anything as far as any similarities to 2006, or is it just chance? I know the numbers could change next month. Anyway, thought it was interesting. Thanks for any insight.

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^ 2006 has been a quiet analog. Evolution has some similarities but the biggest difference is that it was coming after a neutral year vs la nina. 30 day running SOI is getting closer to -8 just about a bit over a point to go. Another week or two of negative 10 or more could bring it to that threshold.
SOI values for 11 Jun 2012
Average for last 30 days -6.7
Average for last 90 days -3.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -21.1
Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4
SOI values for 11 Jun 2012
Average for last 30 days -6.7
Average for last 90 days -3.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -21.1
Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C
If the 30-day ave SOI hit -8.00, will that mean anything?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C
daily soi has push the 30 day soi to -8.00 if its still a - value tomorrow then its in el nino range
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C
i should rephrase could push into el nino range
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/11/12 Update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.1C

rapidly falling...below -8.0 means el nino...
Average for last 30 days -8.0
Average for last 90 days -3.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -20.7
el nino should be here soon ...
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- Yellow Evan
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Lets see if we can sustain the -8 or lower SOI. The MJO has quickly moved into phase 7. This continues to add onto signs that the nino is well on it's way imo.
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Re:
Cyclenall wrote:I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.
I think an SOI below -8 just means conditions are more conducive for El Nino.
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Re: Re:
bg1 wrote:Cyclenall wrote:I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.
I think an SOI below -8 just means conditions are more conducive for El Nino.
I think this is right. SOI is not the determining factor if it is officially nina/nino but represents the weather pattern in the atmosphere. Sustained -8 or more indicates the weather pattern in the southern ocean will likely develop and maintain El Nino, vice versa for La Nina.
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:bg1 wrote:Cyclenall wrote:I don't remember the SOI being mentioned in the definition of what an El Nino is. I hope it holds on to neutral status as long as possible.
I think an SOI below -8 just means conditions are more conducive for El Nino.
I think this is right. SOI is not the determining factor if it is officially nina/nino but represents the weather pattern in the atmosphere. Sustained -8 or more indicates the weather pattern in the southern ocean will likely develop and maintain El Nino, vice versa for La Nina.
The important word is sustained. If we see the SOI below 8 for many days and weeks,then El Nino is a sure thing. But if it goes up and down from -8 to -4 then go down again to -9,go up to -5,that signals no El Nino yet.
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