Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

well thats a silly GFS run.. its having a hard time handling everything. its actually keeps the SE low around a eventually moves it westward and at 192 hours is in the florida straights. although for awhile its was just a sharp trough but reviewed the run frame by frame its the same system the whole time.

as for the epac/ carribean gyro ... well its a mess.

[cycloneye]

And ends at 264 hours with a South Texas landfall as a moderate to strong TS.

['CaneFreak]

Given the coarse resolution of the GFS, that is probably a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane. But, I take something like that with a grain of salt. What a poor run.

And ends at 264 hours with a South Texas landfall as a moderate to strong TS.

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/1549 ... ltropy.gif

[Rgv20]

Well the 12zGFS is rather interesting, that would be some serious flooding for my part of the state as it has the TC crawling by that time.

[Aric Dunn]

well that was very humorous... 94e then carribean system then 95e.... lol and the SE low....................................

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HurricaneTracker]

So a hurricane in Southern Teaxs? Silly models!

[Aric Dunn]

nothing from the cmc... surprising since in past years it always had a tendency have cat 4 all over the place.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[tailgater]

For the record Tailgator. The GFS has it hitting Appalachacola which isn't central GOM. Still far closer to its original forecast than it is the Euro. Still til too early to tell which model will have it right. Hasn't the GFS outperfomed the Euro this year? Wait and see.........

I think you misunderstood me, the 06 GFS run has a low moving into the central GOM then ene or ne, which is closer to what the CMC and Euro were showing.

[Aric Dunn]

well if that little circ does get into the gulf it has a very good environment to do something. only thing inhibiting it would be its size. there is some model support for ... no shear whats so ever. no dry air its actually moving into a much more moist environment.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 48 hours... show all the various things to watch.... low in the gulf, SE system and epac.

[cycloneye]

Aric look what the latest TAFB analysis has in 24 hours on the SW Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric look what the latest TAFB analysis has in 24 hours on the SW Caribbean.

[img]http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/1449/atlsfc24latestbw.gif[/mg]

yeah, if you look down there now. there is the normal eddy down there. every once in a while that feature will develop. will see what happens. very tricky situation ...

[Extratropical94]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

Not too much going on down there besides a few t-storms blowing up and one convective burst earlier today in the extreme SWRN caribbean

[Dean4Storms]

I know it's not a model, but interesting rotation already with the Low which appears now to be close to moving off the coast of AL/FL border is seen here on radar out of Mobile.......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

I know it's not a model, but interesting rotation already with the Low which appears now to be close to moving off the coast of AL/FL border is seen here on radar out of Mobile.......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

yeah been watching that. environment is good. just think its too small and too weak. unless some deep convection can build.

[Aric Dunn]

There we go EURO is fianlly on it. keeps over water. starts in the SW carrib like the nogaps then heads nnw. starting 72 through 120 hours.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

And in 72 hours TAFB has the low almost on the same place and has the SW Atlantic low too.

[Aric Dunn]

then opens it back up at 144 hours...

[northjaxpro]

I know it's not a model, but interesting rotation already with the Low which appears now to be close to moving off the coast of AL/FL border is seen here on radar out of Mobile.......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

yeah been watching that. environment is good. just think its too small and too weak. unless some deep convection can build.

It is worth watching. Sometimes these little vorts can spur development if the conditions are favorable. Like you stated Aric, have to see if some convection can fire once the vort moves offshore. If that can happen within the next 12-24 hours, then it may be something to monitor. It has been a fickle season so far with the early developments of the homegrown systems with Alberto and Beryl. I am not expecting too much from this feature, but you never know.

[Rgv20]

By day 10, 12zGFS Ensembles Mean forecast an area of 1004mb low pressure just east of Tampico, Mx.