Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

euro out to 192 hours. develops a carribean system but ultimately merges it with the left over remnants from the epac system. still too much uncertainty.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Rgv20]

Out to 216hrs the Euro has a broad area of low pressure in the BOC and by 240hrs out it becomes quite elongated in the western GOM.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS....looks like it phases EP95/Carlotta with energy coming into W. Carib maybe a TW which in turn moves northward into BOC.......


http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ ... 0_nam.html

[tailgater]

12Z GFS....looks like it phases EP95/Carlotta with energy coming into W. Carib maybe a TW which in turn moves northward into BOC.......


http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ ... 0_nam.html

I don't like that one it looks dangerous. we need to send a rain maker to W texas and NM.

[cycloneye]

Aric,interesting Marine discussion this afternoon as it discuss about Caribbean/GOMEX and SW Atlantic posibilities for development.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF
AT 27N88W...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FL SW TO NEAR
28N86W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A RATHER WEAK
PRES PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY
AND OIL PLATFORMS SHOW NW WINDS OF 10 KT NE OF THE HIGH...
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT SE OF THE HIGH...SE TO S WINDS OF 5-10 KT
NW OF THE HIGH...AND NE TO E WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE SW PART
OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2-3 FT. UPCOMING
CHANGES WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SWD
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N FL ON THU BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND
BECOMING STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL SW TO NEAR 28N87W BY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL SURGE SWD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY SUN INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NE PORTION WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO MATERIALIZE IN THE
NE AND FAR N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GULF BEGINNING FRI AND LASTING
INTO EARLY SUN BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH PER MODEL
CONSENSUS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
GULF DURING THAT PERIOD THEN SUBSIDE LATE SUN.

THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HINTS AGAIN THAT A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE PART OF THE GULF EARLY ON THU...AND
MOVES IT TO THE NW GULF BY MON. THE OTHER MODELS...AND EVEN THE
00 UTC ECMWF FROM LAST NIGHT DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL FORM. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLY OF A WEAK LOW
FORMING ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT UNDER A SOMEWHAT PERTURBED
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW. WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS AND NOT DEPICT THIS
FEATURE ON THE MANUEL FORECAST PROGS AND ON THE TEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A TRPCL WAVE EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF CENTRAL CUBA S TO NEAR
15N78W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANOTHER TRPCL
WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS E OF THE AREA APPROACHING
50W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BOTH BUOY AND ASCAT DATA FROM
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS W OF THE WAVE. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AT 11N81W WHICH IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE LATEST MODELS AGAIN SHOW THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN TO SLOW ITS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT THAT MOVE S OVER FL AND AND WRN ATLC TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SOME
OF MORE NW TURN...BUT ITS RELATED ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E
PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AND SAT WITH THE 1009
MB LOW MOVING TO A PSN NEAR 15N86W BY MON. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART SLOWLY TRACK THE LOW TO THE NW...
THROUGH MON...EXCEPT THE GFS TAKES IT INLAND HONDURAS MON
WHILE ITS ENSEMBLE FORECAST KEEPS IT OFFSHORE. BASED ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE LOW JUST
OFFSHORE THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS BY MON. THE HPC/NHC AFTERNOON
CONFERENCE CALL AGREED ON SUCH A SCENARIO. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS...BUT
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
FORESEEABLE CHANGES IN ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS COMPARED
TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NOW IN THAT PORTION OF
THE SEA. WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS WELL TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION OF THIS FEATURE.


SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 31N51W TO 26N58W...AND A TROUGH FROM 27N75W SW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM
1518 UTC THIS MORNING CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE
NICELY ACROSS THE TROUGH. A VERY SMALL LOW WAS EVIDENT BY THE
ASCAT PASS AND ALSO ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE ON THE
SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AT 23N78W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
240 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE REGION
OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
OF THE AREA AT 33N78W SW TO WEAK LOW FORMING AT 31N78W...AND
THEN SW TO ACROSS NE FL AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE LOW
ATTENDANT WITH THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLC
COAST. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT E TO SE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
LIGHT S TO SW WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS TO THE SE OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. NE TO E WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE W OF THE TROUGH
THAT IS OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT EXCEPT
4-5 FT IN A NE SWELL OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL PORTION.

THE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST WILL DROP SE TO S AS THE LOW AT
31N78W RIDES NEWD ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM 31N75W TO 28N80W BY THU AFTERNOON
...AND FROM 31N73W TO NW BAHAMAS AS WEAKENING BY LATE THU NIGHT
...AND WEAKENING FURTHER FROM NEAR 28N65W TO NEAR 26N71W BY
EARLY FRI FOLLOWING GFS/UKMET/ECMWF GUIDANCES EXCEPT MOSTLY GFS
FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE FORECAST OF THE LOW
ONCE IT BEGINS TO NEAR THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
WATERS THU NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
...IT APPEARS THAT THE RESIDUAL ENERGY FROM THE LOW AT 31N78W
WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC AS IT
DROPS S TO NEAR 30N72W EARLY FRI...THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE MORE
TO THE SE THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO NEAR 29N72W FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO TAKE MORE OF A NE MOTION AS BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PROJECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UKMET...ARE SUGGESTING THAT ONCE THE LOW THEN SPLITS INTO
TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH PUNCHES S INTO
THE NRN PORTION. THIS UPPER TROUGH THEN IS PROG BY THE GFS TO
RETROGRADE W LATE SUN AND MON AMPLIFYING A RIDGE TO ITS E. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WHATEVER LOW OR LOWS THAT MATERIALIZE TO
TRANSITION INTO A WEAKER TROUGH FEATURE TO EXTEND FROM THE NE
WATERS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA BY LATE MON.

THE IMPACTS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BE SEEN MORE IN THEN SHORT
TO MEDIUM RANGES OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE
U.S. E COAST BRIDGES SWD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATE
THU NIGHT AND INTO SUN CAUSING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW AND NRN PORTIONS
FRI THU NIGHT INTO MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER
SUN AND MON WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD
TO 8 OR 9 FT IN THESE WATERS SUN AND MON LATE FRI THROUGH SUN.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting, so NHC is anticipating the 1009 mb Low from the monsoonal trough down in the deep SW Caribbean to move NW over the coming days based on the model consensus.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: Interesting, so NHC is anticipating the 1009 mb Low from the monsoonal trough down in the deep SW Caribbean to move NW over the coming days based on the model consensus.

That's pretty much what the 12z 850mb Vorticity of GFS is showing and has the low joining up with what's left of EP95/Carlotta into the BOC.

[cycloneye]

Ding dong,new low is added in SW Caribbean at 18z Surface analysis.



And there is the low off East Coast of U.S.

[Cyclenall]

Are the models correct?

HurricaneTracker, would you please fix your image from imageshack.

I see the word "image" instead of the picture itself a lot on here. Why is that happening so much?

12Z GFS....looks like it phases EP95/Carlotta with energy coming into W. Carib maybe a TW which in turn moves northward into BOC.......


http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ ... 0_nam.html

I don't like that one it looks dangerous. we need to send a rain maker to W texas and NM.

The end of that loop gave me that feeling as well because of the way it starts to spin like a top (When Wilma was exploding the same thing was happening).

More GFS ensembles take Invest 94E into the Atlantic basin then shown last night. I don't believe future Carlotta will actually make it over but the energy will most certainly do so.

[Portastorm]

When you see the word "Image" in a place where a graphic should be ... it means the poster has not properly uploaded and included the graphic image.

[somethingfunny]

Is it time to create a new thread for this potential system or do we need to wait for a particular disturbance to distinguish itself first?

[Aric Dunn]

Ding dong,new low is added in SW Caribbean at 18z Surface analysis.

[img]http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/2008/carlatest.gif[/mg]

And there is the low off East Coast of U.S.

[img]http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/4089/watllatest.gif[/mg]

yeah that pretty much sums up what I have seen ( well probably post way to much about.... ) with the models and current set up. noticed they also mentioned the low splinting and retrograding towards the bahamas. the gfs keeps that feature around through 200 + hours. They also mentioned the gulf low moving towards texas. its going to be rather interesting the next few days.

as for the carribean system. I like their reasoning all the models have shown a low down there starting tomorrow then depending on what model you look at brings it inland of keeps the energy over water. just have to wait.

[Portastorm]

Is it time to create a new thread for this potential system or do we need to wait for a particular disturbance to distinguish itself first?

If and when this particular/potential system is considered an "invest," that is when we will create a new thread for discussion and that will go under the Active Storms-Invest/All Basins forum.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it time to create a new thread for this potential system or do we need to wait for a particular disturbance to distinguish itself first?

I was going to wait for the low off alabama to move into the gulf and the low off the mid atlantic to become cut off. but guess it does not matter right now. prob wait till tomorrow should have better idea of what things are going to do.

[cycloneye]

SF,I would wait as Aric said until tommorow to see how things are evolving. Maybe peeps can make a couple of threads at this Talking Tropics forum for the Western Caribbean and the SW Atlantic.And when those get invested,they are closed and we emigrate to active storms/invests forum.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say though that mid atlantic low is very quickly deepening. looking at the shear maps once it gets south 35N shear drops to under 20 then under 10kts around 32N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ma/flash-rgb.html

I bet we get a sub-tropical system out of it. maybe tropical if it hangs around.

[HurricaneTracker]

I CANT DO THE IMAGE! IT DOES NOT WORK HERE SO I WILL PUT IT ON MY WEBSITE
CLICK THE LINK IN MY SIGNATURE TO GET TO THE HOME PAGE

FIRST, GO TO ''TROPICAL WEATHER DISSCUSSION'' THEN THERE WILL BE A NEW POST! JUST READ THE STORY!

IT WILL BE UP ON 6:30 PM

[cycloneye]

I CANT DO THE IMAGE! IT DOES NOT WORK HERE SO I WILL PUT IT ON MY WEBSITE
CLICK THE LINK IN MY SIGNATURE TO GET TO THE HOME PAGE

FIRST, GO TO ''TROPICAL WEATHER DISSCUSSION'' THEN THERE WILL BE A NEW POST! JUST READ THE STORY!

IT WILL BE UP ON 6:30 PM

You can post images by doing this:

[img][/img] put cursor between the two imgs and image will show up. Also,you can download by imageshack.us so the images dont change.

http://imageshack.us/

[Aric Dunn]

looked at the gfs and all the models. the little gulf low according the gfs will be hanging around for the next 5 to 6 days. if there is any deep convection that develops or that circ maintains 5 days is a lot of time to let something organize.

[Aric Dunn]

18z nogaps does not develop anything this time.. lol