Global model runs discussion

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Dean4Storms
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3861 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:50 am



I noticed that this morning. GGEM develops the low near the western tip of Cuba and makes it more of a eastern Gulf threat.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3862 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:59 am

Dean4Storms wrote:


I noticed that this morning. GGEM develops the low near the western tip of Cuba and makes it more of a eastern Gulf threat.


yeah the euro actually bring that area ( although no development ) north very easy to see that something is there. could just be that carlotta is hiding the system in the carribean. Today is the day to start watching th SW carrib. right now just a trough. carlotta has moved far enough away to allow return flow and the monsoon trough to pull north into sw carrib. there is NW flow on the left side of that line of convection and Se flow on the right side. that area should slowly migrate north.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3863 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:39 am

GFS has a low in the SW carrib in 18 to 24 hours. looking at 1km visible down there. it appears a weak low has formed. not much convection atm but should change.

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#3864 Postby thundercam96 » Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:46 am

Are The BOC And SW Carrib Two Different Systems? I Am Getting Lost :(
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Re:

#3865 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:49 am

thundercam96 wrote:Are The BOC And SW Carrib Two Different Systems? I Am Getting Lost :(

yes :)
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3866 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:54 am

75 hours sw carrib low moving n to NNW.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3867 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:05 pm

12z EUro.... Sw carrib system is back

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3868 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:10 pm

yeah its back and so is our little friend under LA
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3869 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:12z EUro.... Sw carrib system is back




Also, the EURO shows what likely is our current small system in the NE Gulf tracking along as a vort max toward the SW Louisiana coast on Sunday.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3870 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:19 pm

in the NW carribean at 96 hours.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3871 Postby Nikki » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:21 pm

Cannot see the image Aric Dunn. :D
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3872 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:34 pm

144 hours looks like just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Although elongated.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3873 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:38 pm

Shift in the Euro. maintains the carribean system brings into central gulf. looks like maybe a piece of energy from carlotta is in the far W BOC

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3874 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:48 pm

hard to tell exactly. but moved very little from 168 to 192 hours.

big shift in thinking this run for sure.

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#3875 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:52 pm

216 hours its weaker but still off shore it seems from 850 winds.
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#3876 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:54 pm

hmmm.... anyone see the tropical wave come out of the carribean north of PR and starts to develop near the bahamas then it does as it moves out to sea ?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3877 Postby tailgater » Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:20 pm

Is anyone farmilar with this model, it's a ensemble of CANADA's, US's and Mexican forecast systems?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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#3878 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:20 pm

Just a quick reminder - since we're treating the NW CARIB/GOM/BOC as one large area *in this case* - there's an incipient disturbance over the CARIB-Yucatan and is forecast to move over the BOC/GOM - feel free to post model runs pertaining to development in this area in that thread. Just trying to eliminate cross-posting. Thanks.
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#3879 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 16, 2012 10:20 am

Not sure if this belongs here but latest model data suggests the MJO will persist and linger over North and Central America. Don't be surprised if more storms are depicted by the dynamical models through early July.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
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Re:

#3880 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2012 10:22 am

Ntxw wrote:Not sure if this belongs here but latest model data suggests the MJO will persist and linger over North and Central America. Don't be surprised if more storms are depicted by the dynamical models through early July.


Yes, good that you posted that here. :)
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