WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical
another invest! this time in the south china sea...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:04 am
- Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Invest 92W
East of Vietnam, South East of Hainan Island or West of PI as well
0 likes
WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: Invest 92W
cyclonic turning is evident on sat loops. euro has this as a TC in 3-5 days and heading towards Taiwan.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W)
CMA have also picked up on this and also expect a TS.
WTPQ20 BABJ 161200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC
00HR 19.6N 111.5E 995HPA 15M/S
P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY
P+24HR 19.7N 111.9E 992HPA 18M/S=
WTPQ20 BABJ 161200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC
00HR 19.6N 111.5E 995HPA 15M/S
P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY
P+24HR 19.7N 111.9E 992HPA 18M/S=
0 likes
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W)
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.3N 111.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 151546Z OSCAT
PASS SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH A WEAK, 05-10 KNOT
LLCC. PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA REFLECT THE STRONG MONSSON
TROUGHING WITH REPORTS RANGING FROM 1000-1005 MB. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED FAR TO THE WEST BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN INDIA. WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC, IT
SHARPLY INCREASES TO MODERATE AND STRONG LEVELS TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH. THEREFORE, A SMALL SWATH OF FAVORABLE VWS IS AVAILABLE AT
THE MOMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
very disorganized but honestly, this system looks like one of those *weak* looking tropical storms in the atlantic... it might be one then...
high probability of a development...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
111.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 161635Z OSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHARP TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS. PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA CONFIRM AN ESPECIALLY DEEP MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO FEATURES AFFECTING THE
AREA; THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YELLOW SEA TO TAIWAN, WHICH
IS PRODUCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE LLCC IS LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IT INCREASES
SHARPLY AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION, LEAVING ONLY A SMALL SWATH OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM THE
REGION INDICATE THAT THE LLCC IS WELL-DEFINED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
HKO have also upgraded this to a TD now, their statement on it:
"The Tropical Depression over the seas to the east of Hainan Island is expected to be slow-moving at first. It will maintain a distance from Hong Kong and may not pose direct threat to Hong Kong in short term. In case the Tropical Depression shows signs of further intensification or moving closer to Hong Kong, the Observatory will consider issuing the Standby Signal No.1. Members of the public should pay close attention to the latest weather information from the Observatory.
Issued at 11:07 HKT 17/Jun/2012"
"The Tropical Depression over the seas to the east of Hainan Island is expected to be slow-moving at first. It will maintain a distance from Hong Kong and may not pose direct threat to Hong Kong in short term. In case the Tropical Depression shows signs of further intensification or moving closer to Hong Kong, the Observatory will consider issuing the Standby Signal No.1. Members of the public should pay close attention to the latest weather information from the Observatory.
Issued at 11:07 HKT 17/Jun/2012"
0 likes
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W)
TXPQ29 KNES 170354
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 19.3N
D. 111.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...INVEST HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. DT OF 1.0 BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 19.3N
D. 111.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...INVEST HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. DT OF 1.0 BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W)
TD has already dumped over 100mm of rain over HK yesterday alone so given its slow forecast movement I'm expecting some very wet days to come:
http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/rainfall/isohyet_ydaye.htm
http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/rainfall/isohyet_ydaye.htm
0 likes
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:04 am
- Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Contact:
Moving slowly..almost stationary
WTPQ21 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.3N 111.7E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 19.9N 112.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPQ21 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.3N 111.7E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 19.9N 112.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
0 likes
WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
- senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
717
TXPQ29 KNES 170957
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 17/0832Z
C. 19.0N
D. 112.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 W BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
TXPQ29 KNES 170957
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 17/0832Z
C. 19.0N
D. 112.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 W BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
0 likes
-
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
TRMM sat imagery really tells the story for SE china, and the high amount of rains this past week.
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/affinity/affi ... _rain.html
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/affinity/affi ... _rain.html
0 likes
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W)
Here's the link to Haikou radar on Hainan island, can see the circulation spinning away nicely there:
http://www.weather.com.cn/static/radar_video_v1.php?class=JC_RADAR_AZ9898_JB&v=0&v1=0&go=1206172135&to=1206172135
http://www.weather.com.cn/static/radar_video_v1.php?class=JC_RADAR_AZ9898_JB&v=0&v1=0&go=1206172135&to=1206172135
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests