NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[tailgater]

yeah that rotation is up at the 500mb level..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Good catch!

It's at or near the surface also. Evident on high res loop.

[WeatherCat]

Just want to say thank you to everyone on this forum - pros and educated weather enthusiasts alike. As a coastal property owner with storm prep duty to complete - while not missing a beat at work - I find the local input and discussion to be of great value. TS Frances in 1998 will never be forgotten in our household and was a colossal misstep on the part of local TV Mets (even as good as some are). Lesson learned – I come here and to Joe B’s services for the real info!

If Wxman57 is right with the Invest kicking off tomorrow morning, and IF “the blob” is tracking towards the Texas coast, it would be great to hear your thoughts on the potential for coastal flooding – regardless of the strength of any storm. It sounds like a messy set-up for some tidal issues on the West End of Galveston.

Thanks again and keep the information flowing …

[cycloneye]

Here is the position of the main low on the 18z Surface Analysis.

[EmeraldCoast93]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola's Afternoon Discussion

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN IN THE
TRANSITION PERIOD AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...RESULTING IN A
LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

FOR EXAMPLE BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...THE 15Z SREF MODEL HAS THE CENTER
OF THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE 12Z
EUROPEAN MODEL AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 540 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE. THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE CENTER OF
THE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE. THE 12Z GFS
MODEL SPLITS THE LOW WITH ONE POSITIONED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE OTHER POSITIONED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF Ensembles are with broad low in BOC at 120 hours.

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa Bay AFD sounding more bullish for FL heavy rain potential.

BIG CHANGES WILL BE TAKING PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE TRIES TO LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE
SYSTEMS WELL...AND TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SUPPRESSED KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS MODELS BRING A TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH DEEP
MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CERTAINLY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. FOR NOW I
WILL KEEP IT DRY FROM ABOUT CITRUS COUNTY NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTH TO SARASOTA COUNTY...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT
DETAILS SUCH AS WHEN AND WHERE WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL WE SEE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS RESULTING IN STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW. WE
WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
WITH THE EASTERLY SURGE TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS EVEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL HINGE ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RELIES MORE ON THE ECMWF ALLOWING A WEAKER
MORE SUPPRESSED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE
WEST. THIS RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS. IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING TO SEE LATER FORECASTS BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has the low in Central GOM at 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

Continuing with the 18z GFS ,look what happens in 168 hours.

[cycloneye]

And lastly,in 192 hours off the U.S East Coast. There is the play by play of the run.

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z CMC is still going crazy, with a hurricane making landfall in the FL panhandle

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[northjaxpro]

Right now it is flip a coin on which model solution you want to buy into right now.

GFS latest runs observing the trends the past 12-24 hours are now shifting with the NW Caribbean system, now taking it more north and then eventually northeast into Florida peninsula. GFS is currently going with the solution that a surface trough which will come down from the Plains late this week will weaken the ridge of High Pressure currently in place to create a weakness for the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM system to move into late this week across the Eastern GOM and Florida.

EURO is still holding onto the solution that the ridge will maintain its strength long enough to move the tropical entity farther west into BOC region and target the western Gulf coastal region.

We should have a better idea in the next 24-36 hours on which scenario will unfold. It will be interesting for sure.

[South Texas Storms]

You Florida peeps better not steal our rain again! We still need it over here.
FWIW the 18z NAM shows our tropical system in the western GOM in 84 hours.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

Right now it is flip a coin on which model solution you want to buy into right now.

GFS latest runs observing the trends the past 12-24 hours are now shifting with the NW Caribbean system, now taking it more north and then eventually northeast into Florida peninsula. GFS is currently going with the solution that a surface trough which will come down from the Plains late this week will weaken the ridge of High Pressure currently in place to create a weakness for the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM system to move into late this week across the Eastern GOM and Florida.

EURO is still holding onto the solution that the ridge will maintain its strength long enough to move the tropical entity farther west into BOC region and target the western Gulf coastal region.

We should have a better idea in the next 24-36 hours on which scenario will unfold. It will be interesting for sure.

That is what the tropics are all about,ups,downs,twists,turns etc. That is why I like to follow this part of the world.

[northjaxpro]

You Florida peeps better not steal our rain again! We still need it over here.
FWIW the 18z NAM shows our tropical system in the western GOM in 84 hours.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Oh, I understand and can relate to what all of you in Texas have been experiencing in terms of drought conditions. We have been well below normal in rainfall really since the latter part of 2010. We were in extreme drought conditions here in NE Florida until the past three weeks. Thanks to Beryl's landfall here on Memorial Day weekend and that stalled frontal boundary recently, the extreme drought conditions here have eased for the time being.

Hope that you guys get some needed moisture soon, but nothing too extreme like we had in Pensacola last week. Models are split on what this system organizing in the NW Caribbean eventually does, but for now, just watch the model runs carefully the next 24-36 hours.

[boca]

Looking the sat presentation It looks like a Florida system,but watch the models for sure

[floridasun78]

in miami we expecting alot rain on wed to friday

[cycloneye]

Speaking of Miami,here is the latest from their NWS regarding precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 3 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS
TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR. INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
TREND...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH
COULD BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$

BAXTER

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

[boca]

Yeah, the Tampa and Miami NWS mets are seemingly totally buying into the trends of the GFS runs today regarding their AFDs I read from their respective offices.

Now, I must add that GFS model runs for the most part have performed very well this early season with the development of Alberto and especially Beryl.

Also the GFS upgraded May 22nd as well.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, boca they did indeed enhance the GFS model, and apparently it has really made a signifcant difference for sure.