NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[ROCK]

12Z CMC.....3 runs in a row now...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

this is also farther up the coast than last run...trof misses it...shunted west...

[Aric Dunn]

maybe something on the NW end of that convection. satellite and radar showing some signs... will see. typically you would see it develop under the convection. well more as a result of the convection.

[ROCK]

thats a deep storm also.....hurricane most likely...

[Aric Dunn]

12Z CMC.....3 runs in a row now...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

this is also farther up the coast than last run...trof misses it...shunted west...

dont buy into that. it nearly makes landfall in the panhandle then New Orleans before wobbling around to the wsw then screams west. not likely.

[TexWx]

12Z CMC.....3 runs in a row now...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

this is also farther up the coast than last run...trof misses it...shunted west...

Talk about your beach erosion run....

[PTrackerLA]

CMC takes it dangerously close to New Orleans that run . Would definitely have some coastal flooding issues with that scenario. The plot continues to thicken GIVE US AN INVEST ALREADY!!!!!!

[ROCK]

12Z CMC.....3 runs in a row now...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

this is also farther up the coast than last run...trof misses it...shunted west...

dont buy into that. it nearly makes landfall in the panhandle then New Orleans before wobbling around to the wsw then screams west. not likely.

nah I dont buy into any one model run..been here long enough on this planet to know better.....but it does make for good drama!

[Aric Dunn]

yeah when you look at the vorticity its all over the place with multiple vorts causing this to move erratically ... blah blah blah. my trash can of model runs is getting full.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[PTrackerLA]

yeah when you look at the vorticity its all over the place with multiple vorts causing this to move erratically ... blah blah blah. my trash can of model runs is getting full.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Well I currently could identify multiple vorts in the gulf with this system right now. Seems like a classic June Gulf storm to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Still going with the GFS/EURO blend they have been persistent with it getting caught up in the trough. ... just looked at the 00z euro there some 90kt vectors as it re-emerges into the atlantic off JAX but the time jump was to large to see what it was at landfall. its was a hurricane the day before just south of Apalachicola

[South Texas Storms]

#NASA is referring to Gulf storm as "96L" which could mean NHC is preparing to upgrade. From Tim Heller Facebook page.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... 2_96L.html

[LSU2001]

Hi All,
Guess it's time to start paying attention again. That CMC run would mean I would be taking a boat to work. LOL.
Anyway our local NWS is talking a bit about the system and the fact that we are currently experiencing some minor tidal flooding due to the persistent Southeast wind we have been having.
I sure look forward to reading all of your thoughts as this system evolves.
Tim

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211238
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
738 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012

SHORT TERM...
EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GULF SYSTEM
POSSIBLE DEVELOPS OR STRENGTHEN. FLOW MAY HAVE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AS THESE
WINDS MAY NOT ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE ON TIDAL LAKES AND
BAYS. AT WAVELAND...EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE SHOWED LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES BETWEEN 3.3 TO 3.5 FEET. A FEW LOW
LYING ROADS IN HANCOCK COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR OVERWASH EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE MAY SURGE UP
TO 1.8 INCHES EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY OVER THE GULF. SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY
MIGRATE FARTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. 18
LINK: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[ROCK]

#NASA is referring to Gulf storm as "96L" which could mean NHC is preparing to upgrade. From Tim Heller Facebook page.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... 2_96L.html

finally....!!

[Aric Dunn]

#NASA is referring to Gulf storm as "96L" which could mean NHC is preparing to upgrade. From Tim Heller Facebook page.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... 2_96L.html

finally....!!

well its not official yet though.

[cycloneye]

Not yet but warming up!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 50%!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ROCK]

well the EURO should be coming out in about 20 minutes....WXMN57 probably already has it though... Hopefully it will clear up some of this model madness....

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Cainer]

You beat me to it cycloneye . It's been a while since we've seen such a high percentage without an invest designation. Coming soon no doubt with that strong wording in the TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

ok 50% still no invest lol ..