ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Portastorm]

Holy cow! Latest prediction is for temps approaching +1.5C by peak season and +2C in December:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif

It may be a second half of hurricane season closed and a great winter for many including Texas.See the Texas Winter Thread.

Heh, heh ... we hope the Nino ushers in such a winter in Texas that wxman57 is saying "Holy cow!" a lot!

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index continues to go down tonight.(-12.4) Ntxw you think it will stop going down but remain below -8?

[Ntxw]

The 30 day SOI index continues to go down tonight.(-12.4) Ntxw you think it will stop going down but remain below -8?

It will continue to fall but not as fast as this week (30 day and 90 day). High pressure is still dominating Australia but Tahiti pressures should rise some also. After that another HP system will effect Darwin between July 1st and July 6th (if the models are correct) where we could see another big tank in daily SOI.

[Kingarabian]

The 30 day SOI index continues to go down tonight.(-12.4) Ntxw you think it will stop going down but remain below -8?

It will continue to fall but not as fast as this week (30 day and 90 day). High pressure is still dominating Australia but Tahiti pressures should rise some also. After that another HP system will effect Darwin between July 1st and July 6th (if the models are correct) where we could see another big tank in daily SOI.

Well in that case I guess El-Nino is here early. Gonna take a month IMO for the effects to influence the Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

^ It may already have a grip in some areas pattern wise. Western basin has recently warmed but remember the eastern basin has been very warm for a long time. Perhaps that is why we have seen the latest MJO/Kelvin wave persist so long in the Americas/Western Hemisphere. Convection from the monsoonal trough is being fueled by warm waters off CA and SA.

[HurrMark]

Holy cow! Latest prediction is for temps approaching +1.5C by peak season and +2C in December:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif

wxman, do you think we could have a season just like 97, where we got off to a busy start, and then we had essentially nothing the rest of the season? Based on these forecasts, it seems that El Nino may be a bit more aggressive than we expected, so I wonder if this is a possibility.

[euro6208]

mmm +2C by december? looks like guam might have to look out. we had STY Paka in 1997 and STY Pongsona in 2002, both in december

[Typhoon Hunter]

mmm +2C by december? looks like guam might have to look out. we had STY Paka in 1997 and STY Pongsona in 2002, both in december

I which case Euro I'll be paying you a visit! This could sure have big implication for the Wpac!

[dexterlabio]

More like the El Nino in 1997 or 2004 if it doesn't get as strong as being shown. Either way the El Nino pattern could influence the typhoon season in the Western Pacific well into December...

[KWT]

To be fair I think just about every single ENSO event both cold and warm has at one point been forecasted to go above/below 2C by the CFS, at this stage until its backed up by the Euros it doesn't mean an awful lot to me, not to say it can't happen but the CFS is good with trends, but WAY overdoes it.

Still, I expect a moderate event by the Autumn, looking increasingly like a 06/09 season...they seem to come in 3s these days!

[xironman]

I use CFS a lot for long range ideas, and in my opinion CFSv2 is far superior to its previous incarnations. So the historical approach may not work out so well.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI continues to dip. (-13.1) (See updated graphic at first post of thread) A prolonged timeframe of data below -8 would mean El Nino arriving.

[Kingarabian]

The SST Anomaly graphic updated today and it showed that temps in the EPac have continued to warm.

[NDG]

The SST Anomaly graphic updated today and it showed that temps in the EPac have continued to warm.

With a developing El Nino, interesting that officialy last year May & June were warmer in Honolulu than May and June of this year so far.
In fact last year June averaged 79.7 degs, while this month of June so far it has averaged 78.7 degrees, with a lot less days of 86 degrees and above than June of last year.
The power of a fairly cold PDO I guess, bringing in cooler seabreezes to Hawaii.

[SoupBone]

Any daily updates?

[cycloneye]

Any daily updates?

Here is the link to the dailys. Went down again on Friday,but it was not as dramatic as it occured in the past few days.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Kingarabian]

The SST Anomaly graphic updated today and it showed that temps in the EPac have continued to warm.

With a developing El Nino, interesting that officialy last year May & June were warmer in Honolulu than May and June of this year so far.
In fact last year June averaged 79.7 degs, while this month of June so far it has averaged 78.7 degrees, with a lot less days of 86 degrees and above than June of last year.
The power of a fairly cold PDO I guess, bringing in cooler seabreezes to Hawaii.

Yeah it is weird. This past week has been rain, rain, and more rain. Chilly mornings as well. That's Hawaii's weather for you tho. Can be hot one day then cold the next.

[cycloneye]

The SOI dailys went to positive today. Now let's see the 30 day index respond with an uptick, and let's see if it surpass the -8 El Nino threshold line,or it stairsteps below that.

[Ntxw]

^ I don't believe the 30 day SOI will fall below the -8 threshold Cycloneye. Higher pressures is on it's way to Darwin and a storm system to the south of Tahiti. Daily SOI rise will be short lived.

[SoupBone]

Any daily updates?

Here is the link to the dailys. Went down again on Friday,but it was not as dramatic as it occured in the past few days.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

Awesome thanks! I kept looking for it and couldn't find the one everyone was linking to.