Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

The 97L wave has not brought plenty of rain that some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean expected especially those north and northwest of Guadeloupe. In PR,we got the usual afternoon thunderstorms with a few flood advisories,but it was not a general area rain for all the island. Let's see if the next wave brings the rain to the islands that missed the bulk of ex 97L wave.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT AXIS STRETCHING ALONG 17N WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRESS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA MON AND HOLD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW CONVECTION ON A
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT THRU DAYBREAK WED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF 40W WILL RACE WWD AND MOVE THRU THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z WED AND REACH THE USVI AROUND 18Z WED AND MOVE
INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY WED EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG H7 SPEED MAX OF 45 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE
00Z ECMWF. THIS WAVE WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SUCH
A STRONG SPEED MAX...EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KNOTS
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. AIR MASS DRIES OUT RAPIDLY THU WITH SAL
ESTABLISHING. AFTER WED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
HOT DRY WINDY PATTERN THAT WE EXPERIENCED ALL JUNE.


&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY VFR XCP TJMZ WILL HAVE NMRS
SHRA/TSRA IN AREA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND VCNTY FOR TJSJ/TJPS.
SHRA WILL DIE DOWN BY LATE AFT/EARLY EVE BUT INCR AGAIN TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. LLVL WINDS E 15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH TUE BUT EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
WED AS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BROAD WIND SURGE MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS. SQUALLS ARE LIKELY WITH TSTMS THAT MAY REQUIRE SMWS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED.


&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKED THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA 90F
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WED COULD BRING THIS STREAK TO A HALT AS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SQUALLS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 30 30 10 10
STT 81 89 81 89 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

Hi guys. These are the temperatures in Central America registered in June 30 2012

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador and Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.1°C (75.4°F) Warmest since May 13 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.0°C (60.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.9°C (85.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.1°C (77.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Finnally,a few heavy showers with thunder came to San Juan last night and early this morning. Let's see if the next wave that will arrive on Wednesday brings more.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. ON AND OFF
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SAHARAN DUST IS MAKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS NOW AROUND 70 WEST
IS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TODAY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NAAPS MODEL SHOWS SAHARAN DUST MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AND THEN AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE HAS SAHARAN DUST WITH
IT...SO EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...THE DUST SHOULD LIMIT THE
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THIS WAVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS DRIER
AND POSSIBLY HAZY.


&&

.AVIATION...LAST PULSE OF WWD MOVG TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS PR BEFORE
02/12Z...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FOLLOW. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD OVER WATER BUT DEVELOP OVER PR BTWN
02/15-02/17Z WITH MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. TAF SITES
AFFECTED TO BE TJMZ AND TJBQ...BUT TJSJ AND TJPS LIKELY TO HAVE
VCTS. USVI WILL HAVE VCSH AND LIKELY DOWNSTREAM SHRA AFT 02/16Z.
LLVL WINDS ELY 10 TO 20 KT BELOW 20 KFT...BECMG ESE 15 TO 25 KT AFT
02/14Z.


.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 93 80 / 40 10 10 50
STT 89 81 89 81 / 20 10 10 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 25N TO 30N AND IS DIRECTING LARGE TROPICAL
WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WAVES ARE STRONGER IN GFS
THROUGH THIS WEEK THAN ECMWF THOUGH THEIR AMPLITUDE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRIKING. DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DUST LAYER AND A DISCONNECTION FROM THE ITCZ
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP THIS NEXT ONE ON WED RELATIVELY STABLE.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GET A BIT STRONGER FOLLOWING IT...NOT ENOUGH
YET TO BOOST SURFACE WINDS MUCH.

WINDS UP TO 700 MB WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WAVE
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THU SO HAVE ADJUSTED SHOWERS MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST PR MOUNTAIN SLOPES ON WED NIGHT AND TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
PR ON THU...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES.

LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE OF NOT BREAKING THE 35 DAY
STREAK OF 90+ TEMPERATURES AT SAN JUAN ON WED...ASSUMING WE TIE
IT TOMORROW. MORE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AREA. BUT BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT TOASTY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE
MORE THAN USUAL FOR JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHRA/TSRA MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS AS MOVE QUICKLY TO THE WEST AROUND 20 KTS. LLVL
E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS BTWN 30 TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 89 / 10 10 10 60
STT 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 60

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on July 1 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.7°C (58.5°F) Coldest since April 29 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.0°C (56.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.9°C (62.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Panama. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another Tropical Wave will arrive to the Eastern Caribbean islands by this evening and fpr PR on Wednesday bringing scattered showers and some gusty winds.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG...MAINTAINING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. TROPICAL WAVE AT AROUND 50 W
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH WHAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SAHARAN DUST IS STILL PRESENT AND NAAPS MODEL SHOWS
THAT THE DUST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
SHOWS LESS CONCENTRATION OF DUST FOR THURSDAY BUT THEN INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR TODAY...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENT
SAHARAN DUST...CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
INCREASES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT DRIER WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST.

AS OF NOW WE HAVE 34 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES OR MORE AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WE EXPECT
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TO SURPASS 90 DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD
TIE THE RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF TEMPERATURES 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE
FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE PROBABILITY OF MAKING IT A 36TH CONSECUTIVE DAY MAY
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHRA HAVE CROSSED TISX AND WILL MOVE INTO ERN
PR 03/08-03/10Z. EXPECT LIMITED MVFR CONDS AFT 03/17Z MAINLY WRN
PR AND INTERIOR MTNS. AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR. LLVL WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFT 03/14Z WITH LCL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE AREAS OF TSRA. TROPICAL WAVE WITH SCT SHRA AND MVFR CONDS
WILL ARRIVE BTWN 03/22-04/04Z IN TNCM...TKPK. OUTLOOK...TROPICAL
WAVE TO AFFECT PR/USVI AFT 04/18Z WITH INCREASING MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY UP TO 21 KNOTS AND UP TO 6 FEET. NEARSHORE BUOYS
ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 21 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUSTAINED FOR OVER 2 HOURS AT 22 KNOTS OR HIGHER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 90 79 / 20 10 60 50
STT 89 81 89 81 / 10 10 60 50

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW
NEAR 53 WEST WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW SLOT OF
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST JUST AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS LATEST...TJSJ SOUNDING AS WELL AS MIMIC
TPW ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PWAT VALUES NOW NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT
POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. EXPECT ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD TROPICAL WAVE TO
BRING A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AND INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
BRING A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL TERRAIN AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE TRAILING THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
ON FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST/HAZE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 03/18 AND 03/21Z. LLVL E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS UP 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TSRA.


&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKED THE 35TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 90F OR MORE AT THE SJU LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 35TH CONSECUTIVE DAYS SET IN
1981.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 79 89 / 10 60 50 50
STT 81 90 80 90 / 10 60 50 50

[Gustywind]

Looks like the next wave is considered as a strong one because of Meteo-France Guadeloupe just called an yellow alert for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Good news after the pretty severe drought , but let's see how rainfall can we receive from this strong twave.
Msbee keep an eye on the sky during the 24/48h , your plants should appreciate . I will keep your informed as usual.
Hey Cycloneye, this one should spread on the northern part of the Leewards, you should deal with some good rainshowers if this trend verifies (source Meteo-France Guadeloupe weather forecast). See you soon.

[Gustywind]

Luis how about a new title concerning this strong wave? Just my opinion about it, we will see as it approaches the Leewards islands...

[Gustywind]

Here is the strong twave east of the EC islands...

[Gustywind]

Hey hey the title has changed... Cycloneye is not so far from us . Thanks to you Luis

[cycloneye]

Luis how about a new title concerning this strong wave? Just my opinion about it, we will see as it approaches the Leewards islands...

I added something to the title. Let's see how much rain falls in the Eastern Caribbean islands that need it the most.

[Gustywind]

Luis how about a new title concerning this strong wave? Just my opinion about it, we will see as it approaches the Leewards islands...

I added something to the title. Let's see how much rain falls in the Eastern Caribbean islands that need it the most.

Nice title, seems ok as we cannot for the moment appreciate the deep potential of this wave.

[msbee]

Bring it on! We need it!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Great discussion this morning of the wave and how and for what duration of time will the effects be. Folks,you can report from your areas how is the wave doing in the islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS REFLECTED AT
MID LEVELS AFTER WHICH RIDGING PREVAILS IN THE MID LATITUDES JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ANOTHER STRONGER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND PUERTO RICO LATER THURSDAY MORNING. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DENSE DUST FROM THE SAHARA
THAT STRETCHES ALL THE WAY BACK TO ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 20 WEST AND
THEN AFRICA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHOWER BEARING ARC AHEAD OF THE ENVELOPE OF MOIST
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO...AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH WERE NOTED ON NWS DOPPLER
RADAR. ALSO THE FIRST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WERE SEEN ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
4:45 AST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AND WEST SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO WITH WIND FLOW MOSTLY EAST NORTHEAST AT LOWER LEVELS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. CURRENTLY THE WAVE IS IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED VEE
TILTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WITH THE FIRST LEG PASSING OVER THE
THE USVI THIS MORNING AND OVER PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND THEN BETTER
MOISTURE IN THE SECOND LEG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WRF WAS NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND BROUGHT IN THE LEAST
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS FAVORED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ONLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE
WIDER AREA OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT IN THIS WAVE AS
WELL AS THE TREND TOWARD SOME INTENSIFICATION SHOWN IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AS IT APPROACHES...HAVE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. ONLY MITIGATING FEATURE IS THE
PERSISTENCE OF DUST THAT WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. ALSO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE WITH VALUES OF
THE LIFTED INDEX LOWERING FROM AROUND -5 THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW
-6 FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENINGS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT COMPLETELY
GONE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS THREADS OF MOISTURE MOVING
PAST THE LOCAL AREA DURING THAT TIME EVEN AT 700 MB THEREFORE EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DIURNAL...TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MEANING LOCAL EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY
LEEWARD SIDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARE EXITING AFRICA AND WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA...THEY ARE TENDING TO SPLIT INTO NORTH AND SOUTH SECTIONS
AND DECAY RAPIDLY AFTER LEAVING THE COAST...THEREFORE IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WAVE TO PASS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE BEST OVERALL
RAIN MAKER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

STILL HAVE 90 DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR SAN JUAN TODAY...BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO LIMIT THAT TO AROUND 88 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY AND HENCE END THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE 90 DEGREE DAYS
THERE ONE DAY AFTER THE RECORD IS BROKEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN VERY SMALL
AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER AMOUNTS OVERALL BUT WITH
LESS LOCAL EXTREMES SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BE
MORE WIDELY SPREAD OVER LAND. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDS STARTING ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL 04/14Z OR SO WHEN THE
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO START APPROACHING TIST AND TISX. AFT
04/18Z TSRA ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR...AFFECTING TJSJ AND TJMZ AND
THE INTERIOR OF PR WITH VCTS EXPECTED FOR TJPS AND TJBQ. WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AROUND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME WINDS MAY
REACH A SUSTAINED VALUE OF 22 KNOTS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE RAISED FOR THE
WATERS JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SEAS MAY ALSO REACH 7 FEET IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
A CONFIRMING RUN OF THE SWAN MODEL BEFORE ADDING THIS TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 80 / 60 50 70 60
STT 89 79 88 81 / 60 70 70 60

[abajan]

We've had a pretty decent amount of rain from this already, with occasional distant rolls of thunder. It's not raining now but it's overcast and you can tell by how things look and feel that at some point within the next few hours it's going to rain really heavily.

Just a hunch.

[cycloneye]

So far in San Juan some fast moving brief showers but in other parts of the island,more moderate to heavy showers have been moving thru. Let's see how the rest of this 4th holiday goes.

[Gustywind]

Nice showers yesterday night and briefs episods of rainfall thius morning. Really interresting for the plants .

[msbee]

Good morning
We had a stormy night here, although it was more wind than rain I think. My back yard rain gauge showed only about .5 inch.
But the wind howled last night and early this morning. We had a brief thunderstorm too.
The airport met office reported light rain showers and wind from the East at 31 MPH at 7:00 AM.
I know a lot of our potted plants were blown over when we got up this morning.
Now its overcast but no rain and the sun is trying to break through.