Global model runs discussion

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vbhoutex
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3921 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:03 pm

ROCK wrote:not seeing much on any GFS run and even the NOGAPS is quiet....too quiet... :lol:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


we got some potential out there...the GOM is real toasty.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

:uarrow: You sir are severely prone to gross understatements of fact!! :uarrow: :lol: :lol:
Glad the pattern isn't currently conducive to TC formation in the GOM!!! :eek: :eek:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3922 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:56 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
ROCK wrote:not seeing much on any GFS run and even the NOGAPS is quiet....too quiet... :lol:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


we got some potential out there...the GOM is real toasty.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

:uarrow: You sir are severely prone to gross understatements of fact!! :uarrow: :lol: :lol:
Glad the pattern isn't currently conducive to TC formation in the GOM!!! :eek: :eek:




:lol: :lol: Yeah I get overly dramatic sometimes. With Debby I had ole Portastorm reel me in a few times.... :cheesy:

BTW- the new map came out tonight. Basically the MDR,Carib, and most of the GOM can now support a Cat 5 if all things are equal. ie shear, LLC etc.....now that is potential!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3923 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:02 pm

00Z rolling

not much to look at...few sprinkles in the carib....blob coming off Africa might do something...if anything it should act like a fullback and clear the SAL out for the one behind it.

96hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3924 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:40 pm

looked at all globals and nothing even in the long range of the GFS.....now the EPAC is a different story. Plenty of action over there. So the next 2 weeks might be quiet.....ugh...I hate lulls... :D
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3925 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jul 06, 2012 1:31 am

Looking quiet.... :grr:
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#3926 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:19 am

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#3927 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:12 pm

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3928 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:27 pm

that monsoon trof over SA is just birthing out TCs.. :lol: ..this next invest will mostly like make cane status...IMO....

nothing even in the long range GFS yet.....more waiting...
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#3929 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 12:09 am

The waiting game continues...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3930 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:37 am

It might be a long waiting game with the El Nino showing itself. Expecting a much more active EPAC but a quiet Atlantic for most of this month. Probably will see a 3-4 week spurt of activity (or even less depending on the El Nino evolution) by mid August to mid September and that will be it.

Probably no more than 11-12 storms even with the fast start this season.
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#3931 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:34 pm

Between the El Nino and the Dust I think the season struggles from here out. Looks like the 70's out there!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3932 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:17 pm

It's got that "feel" down here. Humid and thick. Maybe a few degrees under peak potential however.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3933 Postby StormTracker » Sun Jul 08, 2012 11:09 am

Just imagine if TC's were popping like that on our side of town with that Bermuda High setup that we have going right now! :eek:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3934 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2012 11:14 am

StormTracker wrote:Just imagine if TC's were popping like that on our side of town with that Bermuda High setup that we have going right now! :eek:


That is a good point my friend. Let's see how the BH setteles when it matters the most by August/September.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3935 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2012 2:52 pm

Is boring out there right for those who like to track Atlantic storms? Well,maybe maybe we may have something comming off West Africa by the latter part of July, but the problem is the very long range and you know the drill about that. :) It doesn't hurt to see what happens in the models and precisely this thread is to discuss about all about models short,medium and long range scenarios. :)

12z GFS

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#3936 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 08, 2012 3:30 pm

GFS and Euro both showing something in the long range actually.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3937 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:41 am

End of July may begin to be active? hm?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3938 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:16 am

cycloneye wrote:Is boring out there right for those who like to track Atlantic storms? Well,maybe maybe we may have something comming off West Africa by the latter part of July, but the problem is the very long range and you know the drill about that. :) It doesn't hurt to see what happens in the models and precisely this thread is to discuss about all about models short,medium and long range scenarios. :)

12z GFS

http://oi49.tinypic.com/rwripk.jpg

And that run shows a hyper-active eastern Pacific even at that long-range.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3939 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:53 am

An active East Pacific typically signals a quiet western Atlantic season. Pleasantly boring for the rest of July. Time to take a few more vacation days before the end of the first week of August when Ernesto forms...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3940 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:06 am

wxman57 wrote:An active East Pacific typically signals a quiet western Atlantic season.

In September 2005, what caused both basins to be hyper at the same time? Don't say neutral conditions because that normally doesn't cause such occurrence.
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