ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

500mb chart - Hurricane Dean



500mb chart - 05L



Some similarities in terms of ridging over the US.

[SouthDadeFish]

Not looking so hot tonight....

[Rgv20]

Gotta handed to the GFS, the past 4 runs (0z,18z,12z,6z) have been consistent on sending TD5 to the BOC by next Friday or Saturday..

[cycloneye]

Gotta handed to the GFS, the past 4 runs (0z,18z,12z,6z) have been consistent on sending TD5 to the BOC by next Friday or Saturday..

Agree on that. Now let's see what the 00z Euro has.

[Stormlover2012]

10 days out is a long way out!! alot can change

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z UKMET has it in the GOM at 144 hrs.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... 20&fixhh=1

[MGC]

Hard to tell there is a TC there tonight looking at the IR. But, like the NHC said in the 11pm discussion....in the early stages of formation the convection can wane.....I think the system will slowly get its act together and should crank up a good bit once in the Caribbean....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ROCK]

EURO out soon....10 minutes.....its time to get it on...

[ROCK]

0Z GFDL.....doesnt do a whole lot with TD5.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

EURO out 24hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

[Zanthe]

Looks like it (The Euro) Takes it into central america or the Yucatan as a (very) weak system.

[JonathanBelles]

Updated with the models and a quick look at the tropical wave that will impact Florida this weekend:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... d5-models/

If you didn't see my full update on TD 5 from a few hours ago, you can find it here:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... es-issued/

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020530
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 51.5W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[GCANE]

Starting to fire back up with convection close to the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020045.jpg

Anti-cyclone is displaced SW of the LLC

Core at 0.5C

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208020032

[Hurricane Alexis]

Sharp change in the intensity forecast by the NHC in contrast to the previous advisories.



000
WTNT45 KNHC 020841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.

UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the Euro was correct on this one. Becoming shallow, quickly.

[Gustywind]

This discussion is by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Depression #5 Will Affect Barbados & The Lesser Antilles Tonight Through Friday

Thursday, August 2, 2012 5:28 am

by Rob Lightbown

Tropical Depression #5:
Invest 99L was upgraded to Tropical Depression # 5 late yesterday afternoon and is currently located about 550 to 560 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this morning. Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for the islands of Barbados, St. Vincent, The Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Guadeloupe.

Satellite imagery for much of last night showed a marked decrease in the overall convection, however, recent satellite images early this morning shows some increase in deeper convection near the center of circulation. This type of waxing and waning of convection is normal with any tropical cyclone that is developing, especially one that is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Depression 5 is tracking just slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 21 mph. Based on this forward motion, it seems plausible that TD 5 will reach the Windward Islands right around 7 am EDT Friday morning. This general westward track is likely to continue when the depression reaches the Caribbean by Friday afternoon and is expected to traverse the entire length of the Caribbean this weekend into early next week passing near Jamaica late Sunday night or early Monday morning. It should be noted that the last 4 runs of the GFS model has consistently forecast TD 5 to reach the Bay of Campeche by late next week into next weekend. Meanwhile, the UKMET model has a slightly more northwestward track and pulls this system into the Gulf of Mexico by late next week.

I do think that we will see some slight strengthening over the next 24 hours, enough for TD 5 to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto. I currently expect TD5/Ernesto to pass just a tad north of Barbados just after midnight tonight and track across the islands of Martinique and St. Lucia as a 40 mph tropical storm during Friday morning.

From there, it appears quite possible that this system will weaken back down to a tropical depression and perhaps open up into a tropical wave as it tracks across the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. This weakening will be caused by strong trade winds in the Caribbean. Should TD 5 reach the western Caribbean by Tuesday and Wednesday, it may be able to strengthen again due to more favorable environmental conditions and warmer sea surface temperatures.

Tropical storm conditions are likely across the islands of Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe starting tonight and continuing into much of Friday. Sustained winds of 35 to 40 mph with wind gusts of up to 60 mph are possible across these islands. Additionally, heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding will be a problem across this region tonight into Friday. Finally, very rough seas of 7 to 14 feet are likely across Barbados and well as across the islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada.

All interests in Barbados and from the islands of Guadeloupe southward to Grenada should prepare today for tropical storm conditions which are expected from tonight through a good part of Friday.

[Nimbus]

Still pulsing with a fresh burst of convection over the center this morning. The lack of intensification due to shear is probably good news for the Leeward islanders but we still may see tropical storm conditions in a narrower area in the stronger northern quadrants of the storm. For example IF the storm comes through just north of Barbados then only the Windward islands north of there, St Lucia and Martinique would be significantly impacted.

The central pressure is down to 1008 and the LLC is still well defined so I think it was a good call for the NHC to run the track over to Jamaica and forecast some strengthening. As TD5 moves out from under the ULL to the north it should find more favorable conditions to strengthen.

Would be nice if the shear blew 5 apart and it rolled along the coast of SA like Earl 2004 and dissipated but I don't think that is going to happen this time.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER. AN AIR FORCE FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


000
WTNT25 KNHC 020837
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 52.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 52.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 51.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.3N 55.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.7N 58.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.6N 64.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.7N 71.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N 76.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 52.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.

LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.

UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.3N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.7N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA