ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Still pulsing convection near the center.

[christchurchguy]

looks like a hot tower on the radar loop
The area where recon found the 50mph winds seems to be intensifying.

[CourierPR]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

The above is from the 8:00 pm bulletin. Apparently the NHC isn't calling for Ernesto to degenerate into an open wave.

[ozonepete]

Based on the last data, perhaps 50 kt for current intensity? What are the chances that we get Hurricane Ernesto tomorrow?

IMO, poor -- I'm seeing a linear SW/NE convective band setting up southwest of the center while the center itself has tepid convection. These are classic signs of a system which is going to degenerate into an open wave as it enters the eastern Caribbean.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Whoa! I'd be careful with saying things like that. I am just another poster here, but I am a meteorologist and have been following these for decades, and I don't like what I see. It has really good symmetry and is now gradually moving into more favorable conditions for strengthening. Since our ability to measure the conditions, especially CHANGES in mid-level water vapor and shear, is still not very good, we can never be sure what is coming in a situation like this. If I lived in the islands there I would be very cautious; many storms like this which were starting the intensification process as they passed the islands caused a lot of damage from torrential rain and mudslides, just for one aspect. All of you in the islands there stay safe.

[WeatherGuesser]

I wouldn't complain about a non-damaging depression or remnant rain-maker working up the Mississippi River to the Ohio.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL is much more stronger than in past runs and look where it ends the run.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

WHXX04 KWBC 022342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.6 55.9 270./19.0
6 12.9 57.3 282./14.5
12 13.1 59.1 276./17.7
18 13.3 61.0 277./18.0
24 13.6 62.7 280./17.4
30 13.8 64.4 277./16.6
36 14.0 66.1 276./16.3
42 14.2 67.9 278./17.4
48 14.5 69.5 280./15.6
54 14.6 70.8 273./12.4
60 15.5 72.3 302./17.7
66 16.2 74.5 287./21.7
72 16.6 76.3 284./17.9
78 16.8 77.5 277./12.1
84 17.3 78.5 301./10.6
90 18.4 79.4 317./13.9
96 19.2 80.3 315./11.4
102 20.1 81.3 311./12.9
108 20.9 82.3 309./12.4
114 21.7 83.1 316./11.1
120 22.9 83.9 325./14.1
126 23.9 84.8 318./12.3

[tailgater]

I wouldn't complain about a non-damaging depression or remnant rain-maker working up the Mississippi River to the Ohio.

Yeah somewhere in the heartland would be sweet and I think they have changed the name to the Mississippi Creek.

[Houstonia]

Here is a list of radio stations out of the Caribbean. My apologies if this has already been posted. Please delete if it is not needed.

http://tunein.com/radio/Caribbean-Islands-r101162/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Still disorganized, but surviving DMIN a lot better than it was last night. Should show you that wind shear has lowered since that time, even though dry air will remain a factor for a little while longer.

[Nederlander]

The minimal strengthening by the models might be explained by the desert Ernesto will be dealing with shortly, or to be frank, is already dealing with..

[SFLcane]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

It would take a lot to make a circulation as strong as Ernesto's just open up.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 133N, 574W, 45, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 030040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO (AL052012) 20120803 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120803  0000   120803  1200   120804  0000   120804  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.3N  57.4W   13.8N  61.3W   14.2N  64.9W   14.6N  68.6W
BAMD    13.3N  57.4W   13.8N  59.7W   14.5N  62.1W   15.3N  64.6W
BAMM    13.3N  57.4W   13.7N  60.4W   14.5N  63.3W   15.2N  66.4W
LBAR    13.3N  57.4W   13.5N  60.5W   14.0N  63.6W   14.4N  66.6W
SHIP        45KTS          51KTS          57KTS          62KTS
DSHP        45KTS          51KTS          57KTS          62KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120805  0000   120806  0000   120807  0000   120808  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  72.2W   16.0N  79.2W   15.4N  84.1W   14.4N  86.6W
BAMD    16.3N  67.3W   18.6N  72.6W   20.5N  76.4W   21.9N  79.0W
BAMM    16.1N  69.7W   17.9N  76.5W   19.0N  82.2W   20.0N  86.4W
LBAR    15.0N  69.7W   16.5N  75.3W   14.1N  80.9W   15.4N  83.7W
SHIP        65KTS          71KTS          78KTS          79KTS
DSHP        65KTS          71KTS          78KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.3N LONCUR =  57.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  53.6W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  49.8W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  70NM
 


[bella_may]

Is it just me or have the models shifted north a bit?

[SeminoleWind]

Is it just me or have the models shifted north a bit?

Probably just a fluctuation reacting to stronger storm (I hope).

[perk]

Is it just me or have the models shifted north a bit?

No they've shifted north some.

[ozonepete]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

Your opinion is very different from the experts at the NHC.

[mcheer23]

Lower yucatan needs to watch out with recent models

[floridasun78]

Is it just me or have the models shifted north a bit?

No they've shifted north some.

their have key will their stift more left