ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[JamesCaneTracker]

Will we find out why recon is leaving?

[Dave]

Yes they are leaving...85 miles from St Croix when this recco was transmitted.

000
URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

[GCANE]

Very tight in on ADT

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... va05L.html

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 032300
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120803
225130 1554N 06341W 6982 03188 0116 +091 +047 117030 031 032 000 00
225200 1557N 06342W 6977 03196 0113 +096 +047 113032 033 033 000 00
225230 1559N 06343W 6973 03200 0108 +098 +047 112033 033 034 000 03
225300 1601N 06345W 6975 03198 0110 +096 +047 109032 032 034 001 00
225330 1604N 06346W 6975 03196 0108 +097 +047 111032 033 035 000 00
225400 1606N 06347W 6976 03196 0105 +101 +047 105033 034 034 000 00
225430 1609N 06349W 6974 03199 0104 +100 +048 103036 037 034 000 00
225500 1611N 06350W 6975 03199 0107 +100 +048 104036 036 035 000 00
225530 1613N 06351W 6979 03194 0107 +100 +047 105036 036 035 000 00
225600 1616N 06352W 6975 03200 0112 +100 +047 105037 037 034 001 00
225630 1618N 06354W 6977 03198 0112 +099 +047 105037 037 034 000 03
225700 1620N 06355W 6976 03199 0116 +095 +048 108036 037 033 000 00
225730 1623N 06356W 6975 03201 0119 +091 +049 108037 037 033 000 03
225800 1625N 06358W 6974 03200 0118 +094 +050 110036 037 032 002 00
225830 1627N 06359W 6976 03198 0117 +094 +049 113034 034 032 000 00
225900 1630N 06400W 6974 03200 0119 +092 +047 114034 035 032 000 00
225930 1632N 06402W 6979 03195 0119 +094 +045 114033 033 032 000 03
230000 1635N 06403W 6977 03195 0117 +092 +044 112032 033 032 000 00
230030 1637N 06404W 6971 03204 0122 +090 +042 111033 034 030 000 00
230100 1639N 06406W 6980 03194 0121 +090 +040 112034 034 030 001 00
$$
;

Looks like it?

[Cyclenall]

Big Hot Tower firing up

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

Rotating as well

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Right over the LLC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031515.jpg

IMHO, this most likely is the onset of RI.

Good analysis GCANE, Hot Towers are associated with RI and recon is going into it at the perfect time (the delay was a blessing in disguise).

Or an open wave.

?

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

[Evil Jeremy]

[CrazyC83]

URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

Yep headed home, must be issues.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon is done... They are headed home.

[cycloneye]

At what time the next mission departs?

[GCANE]

Good analysis GCANE, Hot Towers are associated with RI and recon is going into it at the perfect time (the delay was a blessing in disguise).

Much thanks Cyclenall.

From what I have seen in the past, it'll take about 3 or 4 hours to heat the core up and wind speeds to start to crank from it.

[Cyclenall]

Recon is done... They are headed home.

I'm praying this is a joke.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon is done... They are headed home.

I'm praying this is a joke.

No Joke... Look in the recon Discussion thread!

[Hurricaneman]

Recon is done... They are headed home.

I'm praying this is a joke.

Unfortunately its not a joke, seems like they had an issue

[Dave]

Cycloneye...this was issued today for tomorrow...

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/2200Z
D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[Rgv20]

The graphics below is the 12zECMWF Ensemble Means&Spread.....as you can see the European Ensembles hint at Ernesto possibly entering the SW GOM by day 6 and 7.

Day 6


Day 7

[bg1]

RECON TUTORIAL:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

Thanks for the link. I thought those winds were abnormally low in relation to SFMR.

[GCANE]

Hot Tower is intensifying - rain rate increasing

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Dave]

RECON TUTORIAL:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

Thanks for the link. I thought those winds were abnormally low in relation to SFMR.

once I got a chance to look at what I'd pasted up there they were too low to make any sense. Has to be equipment problems for the reason they returned early tonight....just guessing though on that.

[JupiterScott]

Could the possible formation of a stronger storm off of FLORIDA cause a more NORTHERN component of the future track of Ernie?