ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Vandymit]

0z EURO anybody?

[SunnyThoughts]

So the GFDL is the ONLY model sending Ernie North..AND the only model with correct initialization is also the GFDL?

[lester]

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS

winds up to 60 mph per best track

[mcheer23]

0z EURO anybody?

Same as the past runs..Into the BOC

[South Texas Storms]

0z EURO anybody?

0z Euro has it in the BOC in 144 hours. I think this run has it a bit further north than the 12z run.

[mcheer23]

opens it up into a wave also in the carib which is unrealistic...

Yeah..if Ernesto makes it past this dry air today, i expect models to finally get things right and shift north

[Vandymit]

0z EURO anybody?

Same as the past runs..Into the BOC

Thanks bro. I'm out for a while.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking good:



Deep convection has been persistent this evening/night

[Hurricane Alexis]

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS

winds up to 60 mph per best track

Where can i see this at?

[bamajammer4eva]

Well ya know...GFDL is probably the only model thats been right so far with initialization as a storm and all

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like an anticyclone is trying to set up on top of the storm:



Looks like all the conditions are there for Ernesto to bomb over the next few days.... Not sure what the global models are seeing to weaken the storm...

[Rgv20]

Tonight's 0z runs of the GFS,ECMWF,CMC,UKMET, and NOGAPS are in agreement on taking Ernesto until Belize (Southern Yucatan) and then going until the BOC by Thursday....Pretty impressive consensus. Of the major models only the GFDL has Ernesto going until the central GOM and even the GFDL has been trending ever so slightly west with each run. 0zHWRF kills Ernesto for some reason which is not believable.


0zECMWF 144hrs


0zCMC 144hrs

[ROCK]

GFDL has also shifted left for the past 5 runs.....

[Hurricane Alexis]

So the GFDL is the ONLY model sending Earnie North..AND the only model with correct initialization is also the GFDL?

The HWRF initializes well but then opens it up to a wave which is unlikely, the GFDL seems the only one realistic at this point.

[lester]

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS

winds up to 60 mph per best track

Where can i see this at?

here:
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

the most recent report is at the bottom, done every six hours or so

[Hurricane Alexis]

Maybe Ernie is just messing with us

[Texashawk]

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS

winds up to 60 mph per best track

Pressure drop, too. Getting close to being < 1000 MB.

[stormhunter7]

looks like some dry air has been sucked into the Ernesto at mid levels and is working its way around the system? curious how much tropical moisture is there to fill in the dry air.

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Texashawk]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

And in what may be a first anywhere, anytime... the Cliper model is the voice of reason and sanity!!!