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HouTXmetro wrote:What a BOLD prediction Weatherfreak! When I go against the NHC I'm wrong, when I go with the NHC i.e. Debby I'm wrong. I just give up. trying to guess where these things are going.
JamesCaneTracker wrote:cycloneye wrote:Lowest pressure at recent pass is 1005.4 mbs.
0054
There was a 1004.4 reading as well...
155330 1429N 06844W 8435 01529 0044 +193 +091 062010 016 030 006 03
Surface obs and recon are very sparse, while satellite "gets the whole picture" (so to speak) every :15 or :30. I'm seeing an inner core CDO-ish structure powerfully venting at 200mb now, and that's almost always a prelude to rapid intensification. If the surface lags, my guess would be that the storm is now well developed at the 700+ mb level, and it's just a matter of time (hours) before a probably sloppy multi-whirled, slightly-displaced-to-the-southwest LLC is sucked back under the hot tower and tightens.The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking
Stormlover2012 wrote:gfdl might get it right but it till be cen tex so sw la if it gets it right
brunota2003 wrote:Blinhart wrote:brunota2003 wrote:For those that think the NHC is wrong...Recon has been through all 4 quadrants of Ernesto and has found SFMR values of up to 40 to 43 knots. The 50 knot reading was in an area of heavy rain (thus inflated by the rain). So, going off of the available data, 45 knots is the strongest everything has shown.
On another subject:
Now, CIMSS ADT values are at or just below the 4.0 range (65 knots). Goes to show just how off those sat estimates can be at times, and that recon is very important!
Recon has only sampled the North and West side of the storm, still hasn't touched the East or South East side. The parts they have sampled have been hindered by Dry Air, so I think it was irresponsible of the NHC to lower intensity when they haven't gotten a full sample yet.
They have sampled the Southern/SE side:
http://i.imgur.com/WelMz.jpg (Not going to post it as an image).
Now, is it possible that on this next pass through, the winds may have finally responded to the deep convection? Yes. But the forecasters can't sit there and go "oh, well, there *might* eventually be higher winds, so lets keep the current intensity higher than what all the data thus far has shown!" They have to go with the data, especially with recon in the system.
Hurricane Andrew wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Someone tell them that a TomTom doesn't work too well in the middle of the ocean, please!
I don't get it.
Stormlover2012 wrote:gfdl might get it right but it till be cen tex so sw la if it gets it right
Shuriken wrote:Surface obs and recon are very sparse, while satellite "gets the whole picture" (so to speak) every :15 or :30. I'm seeing an inner core CDO-ish structure powerfully venting at 200mb now, and that's almost always a prelude to rapid intensification. If the surface lags, my guess would be that the storm is now well developed at the 700+ mb level, and it's just a matter of time (hours) before a probably sloppy multi-whirled, slightly-displaced-to-the-southwest LLC is sucked back under the hot tower and tightens.The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking
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