ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

If you have a guess as to what Recon will find during their trip through Ernesto...then vote here:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113247

NOTE: This is the max wind speed that recon will find *at FLIGHT level* the entire mission! Not the first pass!

Post your guesses over there, so that we don't have 10 pages filled up on this thread of what you think they'll find

Mods: Can you set the poll to end at 7 pm? It only gave me a day option.

I don't see SG on so I think your stuck with 1 day. lol

[ozonepete]

The outflow is turning very good.

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39 ... -57-66.png

Luis, where'd you get that image? I love it.

[KWT]

Also, I'm going to take a guess that recon finds a much weaker storm then some of you think. I bet they struggle to verify that 50kt intensity.

I think it'll have no problem being at 50kts providing the presentation keeps up where it is at the moment. That being said I also highly doubt its a hurricane at the moment. I'd go with 55kts at the moment.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Gorgeous cyclone.



I believe Recon will find a hurricane -- but then again, my liberal bias is evident lol.

[Gustywind]

Gusty.....thanks for that awesome graphic............

First be welcomed on this board ( you're not a newbie ), and second thanks to you .

[cycloneye]

If you have a guess as to what Recon will find during their trip through Ernesto...then vote here:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113247

NOTE: This is the max wind speed that recon will find *at FLIGHT level* the entire mission! Not the first pass!

Post your guesses over there, so that we don't have 10 pages filled up on this thread of what you think they'll find

Mods: Can you set the poll to end at 7 pm? It only gave me a day option.

I don't see SG on so I think your stuck with 1 day. lol

There is no option for hours only

[Weatherfreak000]

THAT my friends is on the cusp of hurricane status. The debate is over IMO, and STILL consistent with the GFDL.

[brunota2003]

Oh well I've never seen so much activity on the forecasting forum before though

Ernesto looks good at the moment, but convection was starting to wane. Will the convection be coming back over the next few hours, or is it going to nearly completely poof again?

[KWT]

From satellite appearance, Ernie may well be a hurricane now, but you can't judge a book by its cover.

None of the satellite intensity estimates suggest this is the case. Neither does the microwave presentation.

Yep I agree. That being said the presentation of the IR imagery to my eye does kinda remind me of a 60-65kts system, but I don't think its quite as advanced as the presentation suggests.

[Gustywind]

I wonder if many of us would have imagined such a situation for the beginning of August? What a change from June and July. This board has begun to find its his legendary enthusiasm

[tolakram]

Man, my java based sat loops have been down all day, I'm lost.


Looking at the Atlantic wide view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

Ernesto looks like a real storm now, rolling through the Caribbean, with Florence making a good show of it as well.

From earlier today

[AJC3]

THAT my friends is on the cusp of hurricane status. The debate is over IMO, and STILL consistent with the GFDL.

Honestly, I really don't see this as being the case. Looks like a moderate intensity tropical storm, as it's being called.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means are in excellent agreement with the operational ECMWF thru 96hrs (Wednesday Morning).





Longer range it looks like some of the ECMWF Ensembles try to send Ernesto more North (North East Mexican Coast/South Texas) than the Operational Run

[KWT]

Oh well I've never seen so much activity on the forecasting forum before though

Ernesto looks good at the moment, but convection was starting to wane. Will the convection be coming back over the next few hours, or is it going to nearly completely poof again?

That really is the big question. I'd say its highly likely that the convection will flare up again some point in the next 6-9hrs in a big way, the actual shape of the system is very good though thats for sure!

[Gustywind]

How large this system is in spite of the convection who has waned a bit Ernesto could easily swim with shoulders like that... and be the leader of the Olympics swimming given its impressive size

[Shuriken]

This is just an incredible sat-shot depicting multiple layers of tops -- you see the standard cirrus overcast around most of the storm (figure 40kft that part of the subtropics), then a new convective blob overspreading that on the northern edge of the core (55kft?), and lastly the new post-diurnal core convection itself (70kft?), which is clearly going to overshoot everything else (and obscure via blow-off much of the other details in forthcoming imagery). So, a very cool pic at just the right time.

[tolakram]

A couple of loops.

This infrared enhanced shows Ernesto still pulsing rather that maintaining deep convection.



This visible loop show show much better Ernesto looked today, a giant ball rolling through the Caribbean.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphe ... opics/VIS/

[Dean4Storms]

I have to say that I've seen much worse looking sheared Hurricanes in the past per Sat. Presentation. That said, that Dry Air is really killing it's eastern flank and I believe that to be what is slowing down the surface wind speeds. I think it might be 60mph right now, but not a hurricane with the dry air still affecting it.

I'm also wondering if the mountains of SA and the flow coming in off them is somewhat a culprit here?

[KWT]

The other thing to remember is that its inflow probably is being a little bit disrupted from SA, once it clears around 75W and the fetch from water becomes even larger I think that will help to reduce the plusing nature of the convection. The dry air to the west I think will stop it from really strengthening at a quick rate for the next 24-36hrs but after that I think we'll have lift-off.

[Caribwxgirl]

So what are the chances of this storm coming closer to Jamaica than the official track is predicting?