ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2681 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:59 pm

LLC is still moving to fast, IMO, keeps outrunning convection. I think we witnessed this last year or the year before as well.

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2682 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:59 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Didn't realize how quickly 8 will come. Probably no upgrade... wait till 11.



Upgrade to what? Its weaker.

When I say upgrade I mean higher intensity, and no! This is NOT weaker!


According to current findings by recon it is
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2683 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:00 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Didn't realize how quickly 8 will come. Probably no upgrade... wait till 11.



Upgrade to what? Its weaker.

When I say upgrade I mean higher intensity, and no! This is NOT weaker!

11pm will be telling!
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#2684 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:00 pm

Convection looks very impressive but the lower level structure looks rather poor. It'll be interesting to see what recon shows over the next hour or so, but the circulation almost certainly is on the W/NW side of the convection.

ps, whilst it is too early to say its weaker, it doesn't appear to be any stronger at the moment...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories

#2685 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:00 pm

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2686 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:01 pm

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#2687 Postby littlevince » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:Initial reports may be indicating the center is on the west side of the convection.


A picture to describe what wxman57 said.
They didn't found the center where they initially were looking for.
(It's not an satelite lag issue, the "failed" center pass was at 23:43, and this particular picture satellite is from 23:45 utc)

Image
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2688 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:02 pm

This is one of those storms that look great on satellite, but if you look at the structure its a pig

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#2689 Postby Shuriken » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:02 pm

If you're watching loops, you'll notice that all of the over-water convective activity south of the center dies away as the burst flares. IMO this is a telling sign of an ongoing intensification cycle. Basic theory: 200mb exhausting overlayers the surrounding regions, capping them and causing subsidence. This suppresses "competition" which would otherwise steal some inflow.
This is one of those storms that look great on satellite, but if you look at the structure its a pig
Any "look" at "the structure" is based upon old data when the sat is fresh and indicates a quickly evolving situation.
Last edited by Shuriken on Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2690 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


My gut is that location is probably too far SE and the center is now above 15N. I suppose recon will confirm whatever is going on down there over the enxt hour.

Not very impressive at the lower levels thats for sure. Maybe the ECM was onto something with regards to the system struggling with its LLC?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2691 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:06 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:When I say upgrade I mean higher intensity, and no! This is NOT weaker!


I think we can let recon settle that argument. Initial reports indicate that satellite, once again, can be deceiving. The center appears to be on the western edge of that convective blob, not beneath it. This is an indication of strong low-level flow moving the low-level center so fast that the convection can't stack vertically. I think that the models are going to shift farther south and west tonight.
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#2692 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:06 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 050003
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 13 20120804
235500 1503N 07129W 8428 01560 0072 +185 +172 138007 007 019 001 00
235530 1504N 07131W 8429 01560 0071 +189 +161 137005 007 017 002 00
235600 1504N 07133W 8430 01557 0067 +194 +147 148003 004 016 002 00
235630 1505N 07134W 8429 01557 0069 +189 +157 143005 006 016 003 00
235700 1506N 07136W 8430 01556 0070 +187 +162 136004 006 014 004 03
235730 1506N 07137W 8433 01555 0071 +184 +174 098003 004 015 003 00
235800 1506N 07139W 8430 01556 0071 +183 +178 102003 004 015 003 00
235830 1506N 07141W 8430 01557 0071 +186 +173 160003 004 015 003 00
235900 1506N 07143W 8430 01558 0074 +180 +180 113003 005 015 003 01
235930 1506N 07144W 8431 01557 0071 +188 +169 088003 003 016 001 00
000000 1506N 07146W 8428 01562 0069 +199 +151 050002 003 014 003 00
000030 1506N 07148W 8429 01562 0067 +206 +145 038003 004 011 004 00
000100 1506N 07150W 8430 01563 0066 +210 +140 036004 005 017 003 00
000130 1506N 07151W 8430 01562 0069 +204 +145 022005 006 018 003 03
000200 1505N 07153W 8430 01563 0078 +188 +169 021007 008 018 002 00
000230 1504N 07154W 8425 01569 0075 +195 +162 028009 011 019 003 00
000300 1502N 07155W 8433 01561 0070 +207 +141 020012 012 018 003 00
000330 1501N 07156W 8429 01569 0074 +203 +141 023007 012 019 003 00
000400 1500N 07158W 8430 01568 0079 +196 +144 023003 008 021 002 00
000430 1459N 07159W 8427 01571 0079 +199 +139 014005 006 021 002 00
$$
;


1006.6 mbs
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2693 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:07 pm

Wow iam just about done with this storm pressure readings coming in 1005-1007mb minimal ts. :(
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#2694 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:07 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2695 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:07 pm

KWT wrote:
cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


My gut is that location is probably too far SE and the center is now above 15N. I suppose recon will confirm whatever is going on down there over the enxt hour.

Not very impressive at the lower levels thats for sure. Maybe the ECM was onto something with regards to the system struggling with its LLC?


I notice that the plane is finding SE winds at 15N/71.5W. That indicates the center is well west of 71W, as on the advisory above. Possibly between 71.6W and 72W.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2696 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:08 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:the low is at the NW end of the convection, this storm is still decoupled


It isn't decoupled and it hasn't been. Tilted at times, yes, but decoupled is a completely different thing, unless you think the LLC is completely separated from the MLC.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2697 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:When I say upgrade I mean higher intensity, and no! This is NOT weaker!


I think we can let recon settle that argument. Initial reports indicate that satellite, once again, can be deceiving. The center appears to be on the western edge of that convective blob, not beneath it. This is an indication of strong low-level flow moving the low-level center so fast that the convection can't stack vertically. I think that the models are going to shift farther south and west tonight.



Yeah, as the HWRF already did. Im starting to give up on this "north" turn.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2698 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
KWT wrote:
cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


My gut is that location is probably too far SE and the center is now above 15N. I suppose recon will confirm whatever is going on down there over the enxt hour.

Not very impressive at the lower levels thats for sure. Maybe the ECM was onto something with regards to the system struggling with its LLC?


I notice that the plane is finding SE winds at 15N/71.5W. That indicates the center is well west of 71W, as on the advisory above. Possibly between 71.6W and 72W.



Right on the nut, I think. Looks like 71.8 from the last set of HDOBs.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2699 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
I notice that the plane is finding SE winds at 15N/71.5W. That indicates the center is well west of 71W, as on the advisory above. Possibly between 71.6W and 72W.


Yep, system is outrunning the upper convection, seems like that lower flow is still pretty strong at the moment. Really not all that far from the LLC totally outrnning that convection, and it shows given the central pressure has risen again a little.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2700 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:12 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:When I say upgrade I mean higher intensity, and no! This is NOT weaker!


I think we can let recon settle that argument. Initial reports indicate that satellite, once again, can be deceiving. The center appears to be on the western edge of that convective blob, not beneath it. This is an indication of strong low-level flow moving the low-level center so fast that the convection can't stack vertically. I think that the models are going to shift farther south and west tonight.



Yeah, as the HWRF already did. Im starting to give up on this "north" turn.


Way too early to say that. When it starts slowing down everything changes.
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