Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS at 189Hr....has our guy in the carib under PR

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


204HR it is gone.....opened back up to a wave.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The last few GFS runs have been showing another wave coming off Africa, north of the CV islands, and forming immediately.

[cycloneye]

And another run by GFS (00z) that shows Florence,but is very long range.

[Kingarabian]

And another run by GFS (00z) that shows Florence,but is very long range.

Yeah looks like a fish... or another Isabella? Who knows.

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[Hurricane Alexis]

And another run by GFS (00z) that shows Florence,but is very long range.

It's been persistent quite a few runs already, it is long range, but still...

[RL3AO]

West Pac going nuts.

[Kingarabian]

West Pac going nuts.

That massive storm looks really close to Hawaii. Do you know where it originates?

[RL3AO]

That massive storm looks really close to Hawaii. Do you know where it originates?

Forms well west of Hawaii and starts drifting east. Not tropical in orgin but the model shows a double fujiwhara effect with two other lows next week.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is that a storm making landfall in FL in the 00z ECMWF run at 48hr

[Kingarabian]

That massive storm looks really close to Hawaii. Do you know where it originates?

Forms well west of Hawaii and starts drifting east. Not tropical in orgin but the model shows a double fujiwhara effect with two other lows next week.

Thank you sir.

[blp]

Looks like the lid is about to be blown off... Are we in an El Nino on this run?....



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[gatorcane]

WOW, though its the way long-range GFS at 348 hours

[HurricaneFan]

What are the models showing in terms of the Bermuda/Azores High setup in the Atlantic in the medium to long range?(Aug 14th-Aug 31st).
It looks like before then,the setup is ripe for ocean storms.
Are the models hinting at a pattern change or keeping the same pattern?

[gatorcane]

What are the models showing in terms of the Bermuda/Azores High setup in the Atlantic in the medium to long range?(Aug 14th-Aug 31st).
It looks like before then,the setup is ripe for ocean storms.
Are the models hinting at a pattern change or keeping the same pattern?

Looping the long-range GFS, looks like it's forecasting a few Cape Verde storms, but they are recurving well east of the islands and the United States, so the long-wave pattern is hinting at a near normal Azores high and a weak Bermuda High feature for the next couple of weeks. Of course things can change so keep checking this thread for updates

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS has a wave that will emerge off Africa in a couple of days threatening the SE Coast in the long range



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[cycloneye]

Folks,GFS made a coup with Ernesto having the scenario that we are witnessing. So far in this season,this model has performed very well so even these long range scenarios have to be taken a bit more seriously than what normally they would. Wow,the CV season is in full swing.

[ronjon]

Yeah 12z GFS shows 3 cape verde systems in mid-August.

12z GFS

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the meat and potatoes of the season is coming up soon. Interesting to see so much activity out there.

[HurricaneFan]

What are the models showing in terms of the Bermuda/Azores High setup in the Atlantic in the medium to long range?(Aug 14th-Aug 31st).
It looks like before then,the setup is ripe for ocean storms.
Are the models hinting at a pattern change or keeping the same pattern?

Looping the long-range GFS, looks like it's forecasting a few Cape Verde storms, but they are recurving well east of the islands and the United States, so the long-wave pattern is hinting at a near normal Azores high and a weak Bermuda High feature for the next couple of weeks. Of course things can change so keep checking this thread for updates

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

But what about after the two week time frame?(Aug 20th-Aug 31st)

[somethingfunny]

I wish everybody on page 202 had used static images to show the global model runs last week. Ernesto kind of surprised everybody by popping up and I'd like to see which models detected it and when they first did so. As for Florence, I know none of the globals saw that one coming.