ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

When would SA been posted?

Three options

1. Making a full forecast package takes 3.
2. They are communicating with goverments regarding new warnings.
3. They aren't going to issue a special.

3 is unlikely IMO. Probably a combo of the first two. I would assume they would have issued a TC update if they weren't in the process of creating a SA.

Also an hour before full advisory.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

When would SA been posted?

Three options

1. Making a full forecast package takes 3.
2. They are communicating with goverments regarding new warnings.
3. They aren't going to issue a special.

3 is unlikely IMO. Probably a combo of the first two. I would assume they would have issued a TC update if they weren't in the process of creating a SA.

Ernesto, the storm that never dies! Somehow, watch this be an open wave tommorow.(based on past events!)

[Sanibel]

I also see NW in the center movement reflected in the CDO. (I hope this isn't a crazy track change ala GFDL)

[wxwatcher1999]

nw movement could it be feeling the weakness?

If that's the case that could change everything

['CaneFreak]

Now it looks like a mushroom cloud underneath the LLC...good grief this thing is shooting off like a rocket...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/vis0-lalo.jpg

BEAUTIFUL CU tower just blew up over the center as of the 1245Z image...what I would give to be in that plane right now...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

nw movement could it be feeling the weakness?

If that's the case that could change everything

Well likely see a track change soon.

[AJC3]

nw movement could it be feeling the weakness?

Possibly, but could also be a function of consolidation. As it was mentioned earlier, we really need a few more center fixes to get a better feel.

[RL3AO]

Maybe they won't issue a special advisory as we are now only an hour away from 15z. However I'm surprised not to have seen a TCU yet.

[TexWx]

I just can't see Ernesto moving toward the weakness this far south.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061340
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 30 20120806
133200 1623N 08050W 8432 01563 0102 +155 +149 093032 033 023 001 00
133230 1624N 08052W 8432 01564 0105 +152 +146 093032 033 023 001 00
133300 1625N 08053W 8427 01571 0106 +152 +145 091031 033 027 002 00
133330 1626N 08054W 8433 01562 0101 +159 +143 092031 032 023 002 00
133400 1628N 08056W 8432 01566 0101 +159 +143 086032 033 016 002 00
133430 1629N 08057W 8429 01567 0100 +160 +143 085032 033 018 001 00
133500 1630N 08058W 8429 01566 0099 +160 +144 084032 032 019 001 00
133530 1632N 08100W 8432 01564 0101 +158 +145 083031 032 012 002 00
133600 1633N 08101W 8432 01564 0100 +159 +146 084032 034 012 002 00
133630 1634N 08102W 8429 01569 0102 +158 +146 087031 035 010 002 00
133700 1635N 08104W 8429 01568 0100 +163 +147 094030 031 008 002 00
133730 1637N 08105W 8432 01567 0101 +161 +148 089029 030 009 000 00
133800 1638N 08106W 8428 01572 0103 +159 +149 089031 031 007 002 00
133830 1639N 08108W 8432 01566 0103 +156 +149 089032 033 001 001 00
133900 1641N 08109W 8431 01568 0105 +155 +149 090033 033 001 001 00
133930 1642N 08110W 8430 01571 0107 +155 +149 091033 034 002 001 00
134000 1643N 08112W 8429 01573 0108 +156 +149 092035 035 002 001 00
134030 1645N 08113W 8433 01569 0104 +162 +149 089033 034 001 001 00
134100 1646N 08115W 8433 01571 0107 +160 +149 089031 032 001 002 00
134130 1647N 08116W 8425 01579 0104 +167 +150 087030 031 001 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Latest

[AJC3]

[tailgater]

Might see an eye pop out soon. Looks much healthier at the surface now. check that, I see an outflow boundry shooting out to the NW on the NW edge of CDO.

[artist]

the definition of RI from the NHC page-

Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[HurricaneAndrew92]

hard to believe this is the same storm we were calling an open wave 12 hours ago.

[AJC3]

000
URNT12 KNHC 061344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/13:17:00Z
B. 15 deg 43 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1381 m
D. 40 kt
E. 137 deg 3 nm
F. 235 deg 54 kt
G. 137 deg 3 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1538 m
J. 21 C / 1400 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

the definition of RI from the NHC page-

Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Already at least a 20kt change!

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061350
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 31 20120806
134200 1648N 08117W 8426 01578 0102 +172 +150 084032 033 001 001 00
134230 1650N 08119W 8433 01573 0103 +170 +151 085031 033 000 002 00
134300 1651N 08120W 8430 01575 0103 +170 +152 090027 030 000 002 00
134330 1652N 08121W 8431 01574 0104 +169 +153 095027 028 000 000 00
134400 1654N 08123W 8433 01572 0106 +165 +154 097029 030 001 001 00
134430 1655N 08124W 8430 01574 0108 +160 +154 097028 030 002 001 00
134500 1656N 08125W 8428 01578 0110 +160 +154 096029 029 001 001 00
134530 1657N 08127W 8432 01574 0110 +160 +153 096028 029 001 001 00
134600 1659N 08128W 8429 01577 0110 +160 +152 099027 027 006 001 00
134630 1700N 08129W 8431 01574 0109 +160 +151 098026 027 007 002 00
134700 1701N 08131W 8429 01578 0112 +160 +151 099026 028 009 001 03
134730 1702N 08133W 8422 01585 0114 +155 +151 093024 025 /// /// 03
134800 1700N 08133W 8436 01572 0114 +155 +152 093024 024 003 002 00
134830 1659N 08134W 8433 01574 0112 +158 +153 092025 025 007 001 00
134900 1657N 08134W 8426 01580 0112 +160 +152 090025 026 004 001 00
134930 1655N 08134W 8432 01575 0111 +160 +151 088025 026 001 003 00
135000 1654N 08134W 8432 01574 0110 +165 +149 088026 026 001 002 00
135030 1652N 08134W 8430 01577 0109 +164 +149 085022 025 003 001 00
135100 1650N 08135W 8430 01575 0113 +157 +148 079020 022 004 001 00
135130 1649N 08135W 8430 01575 0111 +157 +148 075019 019 007 001 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

[RL3AO]