ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

[CrazyC83]

Center missed by the last set of obs it appears? Since the SFMR was consistently around 40 kt. The pressure was likely 993 (997 lowest, drop 4 for winds).

So if this is true, we have a hurricane on our hands, it seems?

Not sure. Either 60 or 65 kt would be the intensity, depending on how they treat the 67 kt SFMR reports.

[CrazyC83]

Hopefully they will loop, as in the previous passes. I have no concept of how easy or hard that is to do in a strengthening storm.

The eye is 6 nautical miles wide, so it is easy to miss when it is not visible.

[tolakram]

These offer decent resolution images.

ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/c ... erica/vis/

Needs to be sized and the gamma adjusted.

['CaneFreak]

Nope...ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

Center missed by the last set of obs it appears? Since the SFMR was consistently around 40 kt. The pressure was likely 993 (997 lowest, drop 4 for winds).

So if this is true, we have a hurricane on our hands, it seems?

[drezee]

I think recon missed the center. They had 20kt east winds on the pass. I wonder if they turn around. They are also going due east.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Nope...ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

Center missed by the last set of obs it appears? Since the SFMR was consistently around 40 kt. The pressure was likely 993 (997 lowest, drop 4 for winds).

So if this is true, we have a hurricane on our hands, it seems?

Where'd you get that from?

['CaneFreak]

No hurricane. They are going 65 mph for this advisory. Seems reasonable given they missed the center and the winds take a while to catch up.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

[CrazyC83]

Advisory coming out - winds are 55 kt, pressure 994mb. The discussion should be interesting to see why they are a bit conservative. Forecasting 80 kt at landfall.

[AJC3]

I'm really missing the NASA GHCC zoom frames that would particularly impressive right now if the site wasn't down.

Looks like Recon hit the center. 996 at steady pressure.

If that is the center NW track is confirmed!

Well, more WNW than NW.

15'34 79'59
15'43 80'10
15'52 80'27

which is a change of 18'N 28'W

[HurricaneAndrew92]

No hurricane. They are going 65 mph for this advisory. Seems reasonable given they missed the center and the winds take a while to catch up.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

Nhc hasn't upgraded yet to a higher intensity?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warning for Yucatan.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

['CaneFreak]

Forecast/Advisory on NHC just updated. Sometimes this section updates before the others...

Nope...ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061450
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120806
144200 1553N 08020W 8433 01508 0033 +165 +157 170050 051 050 004 00
144230 1553N 08018W 8432 01519 0046 +158 +156 168053 055 048 007 00
144300 1553N 08017W 8433 01524 0059 +150 +150 164054 055 045 013 01
144330 1552N 08015W 8425 01535 0074 +140 +140 161050 052 043 015 01
144400 1552N 08014W 8446 01519 0079 +140 +140 165049 050 044 013 01
144430 1552N 08012W 8430 01538 0076 +147 +139 160045 048 044 010 00
144500 1552N 08011W 8432 01539 0082 +141 +134 163042 044 043 011 00
144530 1552N 08009W 8426 01547 0088 +138 +130 170042 043 047 017 00
144600 1552N 08008W 8434 01541 0095 +132 +127 160037 042 046 020 00
144630 1552N 08006W 8418 01560 0091 +139 +123 164031 034 046 012 00
144700 1552N 08005W 8399 01575 0095 +134 +121 160050 061 051 031 03
144730 1552N 08003W 8464 01506 0088 +138 +121 174060 066 054 015 00
144800 1552N 08001W 8407 01568 0088 +140 +120 168053 057 055 014 00
144830 1552N 08000W 8449 01523 0086 +143 +121 158051 053 053 015 00
144900 1552N 07958W 8425 01551 0089 +140 +121 156051 053 054 019 00
144930 1552N 07957W 8439 01536 0090 +138 +121 148057 058 056 018 00
145000 1552N 07956W 8426 01549 0091 +137 +121 147059 060 056 019 00
145030 1552N 07954W 8443 01532 0095 +133 +121 148058 059 055 031 00
145100 1552N 07953W 8421 01560 0103 +127 +120 145058 059 055 034 00
145130 1552N 07952W 8429 01553 0106 +128 +118 146059 059 053 020 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

No hurricane. They are going 65 mph for this advisory. Seems reasonable given they missed the center and the winds take a while to catch up.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

Nhc hasn't upgraded yet to a higher intensity?

It's an increase, but not as high as supported by Recon. Maybe being conservative in case it is transient like some peaks have been.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT45 KNHC 061456
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION. IT
IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL. THIS IS
IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HWRF MODEL.

WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALTHOUGH THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[RL3AO]

L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/10/5

Elliptical eyewall now. Maybe not as organized as we thought.

[Portastorm]

Does anyone think the models will change any today with the rapid intensification going on now?

Nope ... Ernesto is behaving as the GFS/Euro have depicted. And technically, "rapid intensification" is not occuring yet. Ernesto is getting better organized and strengthening but the RI phrase gets thrown around here way too much. RI is a 42mb drop in pressure in 24 hours. That roughly would mean that Ernesto would have to have a minimum pressure of around 960mb by tomorrow morning.

Check that ... I'm now seeing some online definitions that RI is defined as a 25-knot increase in wind speeds in a 24-hour period. Ernesto very well may be in that phase.

[AJC3]

[drezee]

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...

The NHC now believes. It may be a hurricane by the next advisory. We need a NE quad sample...