Strong wave emerging Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is the one guys. This is the one the GFS model has consistently been blowing up into a monster and showing it hitting the USA, or coming very close.

http://www.sat24.com/image.ashx?country ... x=1&sat=ir

Will probably get a circle over West Africa considering the GFS shows it emerging practically at tropical storm intensity already.

[cycloneye]

A note to the members. Instead of posting the runs by the models at the Global Model Runs Discussion thread,you can post them here to not have dual ones doing the same thing.

Is really a monster so to speak.Let's see when it emerges,if it has the meat the the models are showing.

[Gustywind]

Impressive feature Cycloneye .

[Nikki]

Please excuse my ignorance, as I am not a good model reader at all, unless it's showing a specific storm, but can you tell me where the GFS has this one hitting land in the U.S. at? I do know enough to know models/tracks change a lot, but this is one serious looking storm already!!

[Hurricane Alexis]

Please excuse my ignorance, as I am not a good model reader at all, unless it's showing a specific storm, but can you tell me where the GFS has this one hitting land in the U.S. at? I do know enough to know models/tracks change a lot, but this is one serious looking storm already!!

It has backed off that solution in the 18z run....But, it was showing it passing near Cape Hatteras as a major cane

[HurricaneBelle]

Shades of Hurricane Donna, which was quite potent as a disturbance over Senegal (brought a plane down at Dakar) before basically coming off the coast as a Tropical Storm.

Donna may have been the ultimate long-tracker.

[USTropics]

00z GFS run is rolling in. The latest run is showing a weaker system so far compared to the 18z and 12z runs (out to 162 hours in the image below):



I would expect this runs scenario to be more realistic, and is in better agreement with the ECMWF considering the more northern position in latitude that the system will attain (while the SAL has abated somewhat thanks to Florence and the future track of 92L, it still appears to be enough to restrict significant strengthening). Regardless, this looks to be a vigorous system when it emerges off the coast (it already is viewing satellite images over Africa) and a feature to pay attention to. It'll also be interesting to see if this latest GFS run remains with a weaker system where an eventual track will conclude.

[USTropics]

204 hour significantly weaker and to the south. Below is a comparison of the current run (00z) and the previous run of 12z.

00z run:


12z run:

[USTropics]

At 240 hours it looks to open up into a wave and is quite a bit south. Looking at the vorticity run, it may miss the Caribbean just slightly to the north. Huge shift in thinking with this GFS run. We are talking about 240 hours out, and only one run showing this to date but a pretty significant change.

[somethingfunny]

The 0z GFS completely dropped the system. That's two of the last four GFS runs now without the system doing anything more than traverse the ocean as a weak storm at best.

The 0z GFS was MUCH stronger with the Bermuda High, and I think that's why it didn't develop this "Gordon" (Helene?) this time. It pushes the wave across much more quickly than previous runs which would suppress development, and it hurdles into the Gulf without ever organizing. It's the ripple in the 1016mb isobar in the Gulf here at the 348 hour frame. This run does have some more la-la land Cape Verde storms, they go fishing in this run:



The 0z Euro has a much weaker high, and actually a ridiculously strong cold front swinging down the Eastern Seaboard. This is the 240 hour frame, and the wave we're discussing has almost reached the Turks and Caicos:

[Cyclenall]

The 0z GFS was MUCH stronger with the Bermuda High, and I think that's why it didn't develop this "Gordon" (Helene?) this time. It pushes the wave across much more quickly than previous runs which would suppress development, and it hurdles into the Gulf without ever organizing. It's the ripple in the 1016mb isobar in the Gulf here at the 348 hour frame. This run does have some more la-la land Cape Verde storms, they go fishing in this run:

*Image Cut*

The 0z Euro has a much weaker high, and actually a ridiculously strong cold front swinging down the Eastern Seaboard. This is the 240 hour frame, and the wave we're discussing has almost reached the Turks and Caicos:

*Image Cut*

That 500 mb setup is awesome for both the GFS and Euro, a new death ridge in the central US and that off-spilling on top of me. The GFS one is incredibly expansive. However that lower pressure flow in the Euro image, is that really a very powerful cold front there? Doesn't look like it to me but I'm not trained well at the 500 mb level. The flow does dig deep near Bermuda, definitely.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the wave will emerge well south of where GFS had it doing so.

http://oi49.tinypic.com/ndudh.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like the wave will emerge well south of where GFS had it doing so.

http://oi49.tinypic.com/ndudh.jpg

I'm in the mood for a long-tracker, so I hope this one is the one.... Based upon the time of the
year it is, I think it's got a good shot.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This one has my interest, if for no other reason than the la-la land time frame model plots.

[cycloneye]

It has been designated already as Pouch 13L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012/P13L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satana ... nt_NRL.png

[Riptide]

12z GFS is bringing it off Africa as a stronger low pressure system; unlike previous runs.

[ConvergenceZone]

at least it's pretty far south giving more chance of a long tracker..

[Riptide]

at least it's pretty far south giving more chance of a long tracker..

This is going to be an interesting run, cold front pulling out of Eastern North America with a strengthening Bermuda high in the Central Atlantic. Much like yesterdays 12z GFS.

[KWT]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a large SAL outbreak came along with this wave, the upper high really strengthens and moves westwards with 13L by 96hrs, looks like a classic set-up for a SAL outbreak. Maybe why some models do little with this system.

We'll see though!

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS at 150 hours



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