Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

And here is the 240 hour final frame of the 12z Euro run,just north of Leewards. It not develops strong as GFS but it has it all the way to this position.

[Time_Zone]

Some very scary model plots there. Thank goodness they are long range.

Agreed.

Interesting model run though as it comes right to me in Nova Scotia. However, I won't hold my breath on that actually coming to realm.

[blp]

And here is the 240 hour final frame of the 12z Euro run,just north of Leewards. It not develops strong as GFS but it has it all the way to this position.

http://oi48.tinypic.com/n33fj5.jpg[/img]

Finally, Euro jumps onboard showing more than just a surface reflection. Kudos again to the GFS for sniffing this out several days ago. GFS is on a roll this year. CMC is still silent. Even the NOGAPS is in on it.

NOGAPS 144hr

[gatorcane]

The long-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles are both showing a very zonal pattern across North America and the Western Atlantic by day 10 with High pressure that builds in over the Eastern Half of the United States. Assuming this verifies, the pattern would open up the door for a CONUS hit from the east. Both models are in excellent agreement on the pattern:

[Riptide]

Latest visible/IR of the African disturbance.

[blp]

18z GFS shows a stronger system that finds a weakness in the ridge. So far GFS and Euro vary greatly in strength. Euro is much weaker and keeps it further west. With the system the GFS is predicting it will very difficult to make it across. Still very early and many more runs to watch.

[SFLcane]

Latest visible/IR of the African disturbance.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... DAYNGT.jpg

This wave is now highlighted by tpc...


000
ABNT20 KNHC 062340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES EAST ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SFL,I think he was referring to wave still inside Africa.

[somethingfunny]

edit: I didn't see that a new thread was created! I'll leave this post here anyway since it shows some other fantasycanes way off in the horizon.

Quiet tonight! Why? Well, because the 0z GFS completely dropped the system. That's two of the last four GFS runs now without the system doing anything more than traverse the ocean as a weak storm at best.

The 0z GFS was MUCH stronger with the Bermuda High, and I think that's why it didn't develop this "Gordon" (Helene?) this time. It pushes the wave across much more quickly than previous runs which would suppress development, and it hurdles into the Gulf without ever organizing. It's the ripple in the 1016mb isobar in the Gulf here at the 348 hour frame. This run does have some more la-la land Cape Verde storms, they go fishing in this run:



The 0z Euro has a much weaker high, and actually a ridiculously strong cold front swinging down the Eastern Seaboard. This is the 240 hour frame, and the wave we're discussing has almost reached the Turks and Caicos:

[GCANE]

CMC & GFS are onto something in the Keys at about 120 hrs

Even Euro has a faint 850mb vorticity as well.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation


Looks like there will be ascendance in the region at that time

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml

[gatorcane]

The GFS is certainly cranking out some rather impressive Cape Verde storms for the next couple of weeks. Not sure whether I really believe that yet, especially since the ECMWF is not near as bullish and the fact the conditions across the MDR don't look all that great especially with the high levels of SAL around. Nonetheless the SAL should start to weaken over the next couple of weeks if you look back at climatology so we will see what happens.

At least the GFS is showing all of these systems recurving so far, except the 18Z GFS run shows one that could make a run at the CONUS. At least it is 384 hours from now so likely won't verify:

[ROCK]

CMC latched on to the NOGAPS runs.....homegrown coming off SA...heading into the GOM
...rut roh....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it possible that the models are picking up on development of all of the convection that has been left in Ernesto's wake that is now back over PR and Haiti?

SFT

[WeatherCat]

Joe B mentioned yesterday that he was keeping an eye on the wave currently moving through the Windwards ... could that be what the model has picked up on?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have been wondering about the homegrown systems this year? That was the big deal this preseason was all the close in develpoment we were supposed to see.

[blp]

The MJO has arrived in W. Atlantic just in time for all the action that the GFS has been forecasting.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/combphase_noCFSfull.gif

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS still has it in the long range this time following the CMC....not sure but it looks to originate down in the deep carib....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

The models must be sniffing out development of the convection that is over the Greater Antilles right now...That is the only thing that makes sense. It would appear that it develops and moves north within an 84-100 hour timeframe. That puts it up our way this weekend. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

SFT

[Hurricane Alexis]

This is interesting. So far only 2 models showing development.

[CrazyC83]

It seems the models blow up something big over the central/eastern Great Lakes - since they are so much warmer than normal (I believe), is there any chance that the low can take on tropical or subtropical characteristics? How would that be named/assigned?