ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

I think you can see the LLC in this live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

saved image

[tolakram]

saved loop

[gatorcane]

HPC has 92L just south of Haiti in 7 days, notice the trough digging over the SE CONUS.

By day 7 this system is already into Central America according to the GFS as it races west across the Caribbean with a very strong deep-layer ridge to the north.

Here is the 500MB projection from the 06Z GFS by day 4.5 when this system would be in the Central Caribbean. That ridge is way too strong over the Gulf and Florida so it wouldn't be turning towards the U.S. into that.

[cheezyWXguy]

does anyone have a link to the SSD floaters? I would guess there's one for this storm.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Aric Dunn]

Im not surprised.

Although the center was exposed this morning it has begun to develop deep convection and should continue to. probably was TD last night.

[Rgv20]

Wow that was quick, I was expecting an upgrade this afternoon or until tomorrow. Looking at this morning's visible satellite there is no doubt why 92L has been upgraded tho..

[cheezyWXguy]

Im not surprised.

I did notice how vigorous that low level circulation was, i figured they would wait until deeper convection came back though.

[Blown Away]

Looks like a well developed LLC and is moving or wobbled back to a just N of due W movement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[EyELeSs1]

I think you can see the LLC in this live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

saved image

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/784/zztemp.jpg

100% agree. LLC seems to be around 41.5W

[wxwatcher1999]

Will it become a depression today..any thoughts?

[Extratropical94]

Will it become a depression today..any thoughts?

Yes, the renumbering has occured and that means the NHC pulls the trigger in like 99,5% of the cases.

[ConvergenceZone]

13.7N looks ok, but I'd put it at 40.5W presently. Struggling with dry air and low-level shear due to the fast movement. Also moving south of west as ridge builds to its north. No development today. Will most likely be a struggling TD/weak TS when it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean Saturday night/Sunday morning. Mostly a rain event.

Well, at least people can't say it's going to recurve now because of how far north it is....Today that's no longer the case....I think it will be like Ernesto. It will struggle initially and then blow up big time once it gets to the western Carib.....

[KWT]

Its obviously got a circulation thats closed, its got convection developing around it even if it is constantly plusing and being outran.

So yeah, being upgraded isn't surprised, though I AM surprised they pulled the trigger quite as soon.

Still as Aric said, its probably a TD since last night if you take the fact that its held deep convection somewhere around the circulation and had a LLC for at least the last 12hrs.

[KWT]

13.7N looks ok, but I'd put it at 40.5W presently. Struggling with dry air and low-level shear due to the fast movement. Also moving south of west as ridge builds to its north. No development today. Will most likely be a struggling TD/weak TS when it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean Saturday night/Sunday morning. Mostly a rain event.

Well, at least people can't say it's going to recurve now because of how far north it is....Today that's no longer the case....I think it will be like Ernesto. It will struggle initially and then blow up big time once it gets to the western Carib.....

If the models have got the TUTT correct, there probably won't be much left to 'blow up'.

That being said they did under-do Ernesto's strength and IF 92L can shave another degree or so off its latitude, it may miss the worst of the shear.

[ConvergenceZone]

I will say though that it this wave fails to develop into anything other than a TD and the wave over africa fails to develop, then I'll be ready to conclude that it's just going to be one of those low output years with just too much shear and dry air....but we'll see what will happen.

[Portastorm]

13.7N looks ok, but I'd put it at 40.5W presently. Struggling with dry air and low-level shear due to the fast movement. Also moving south of west as ridge builds to its north. No development today. Will most likely be a struggling TD/weak TS when it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean Saturday night/Sunday morning. Mostly a rain event.

Well, at least people can't say it's going to recurve now because of how far north it is....Today that's no longer the case....I think it will be like Ernesto. It will struggle initially and then blow up big time once it gets to the western Carib.....

If it can get into an environment not so plagued with SAL and dry air around it, absolutely. As I mentioned the other day and as others have said here, we could be looking at a very similar series of events for soon-to-be TD7 as we had with Ernesto.

[ConvergenceZone]

13.7N looks ok, but I'd put it at 40.5W presently. Struggling with dry air and low-level shear due to the fast movement. Also moving south of west as ridge builds to its north. No development today. Will most likely be a struggling TD/weak TS when it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean Saturday night/Sunday morning. Mostly a rain event.

Well, at least people can't say it's going to recurve now because of how far north it is....Today that's no longer the case....I think it will be like Ernesto. It will struggle initially and then blow up big time once it gets to the western Carib.....

If it can get into an environment not so plagued with SAL and dry air around it, absolutely. As I mentioned the other day and as others have said here, we could be looking at a very similar series of events for soon-to-be TD7 as we had with Ernesto.

Might just be one of those years I guess....

[RL3AO]

I'm bored so I made a very unofficial forecast using mostly the GFS for track and my gut for intensity after looking at various upper and lower level forecasts from the GFS.



EDIT: Sorry if the text is hard to read. Got a little blurry during compression. The dots are at 12hr increments.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

very strong ridging atm... not surprised of the fast motion or that slight south of west motion..

but it should eventually turn more wnw starting late tomorrow.