ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like this may become Gulf bound with troughiness on the East Coast in a little over a week.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto never struggled with wind shear.

['CaneFreak]

HMMMMMM...I see positive anomalies across the Atlantic and Caribbean. This still looks like a similar setup to last week. Gordon-to-be would have to make it to the extreme NW Caribbean in order to get drawn into that trough. We shall see. Good post.

Looks like this may become Gulf bound with troughiness on the East Coast in a little over a week.

[KWT]

You should always take forecasts 200+ hours out with a grain of salt, but the reason the GFS and Euro have this weakening is because of the predicted shear. Pretty similar to Ernesto's situation.

It is indeed similar, expect this system will be even closer to the TUTT than Ernesto was at the same time, which means it'll likely get hit by higher shear.

Still it is true, the shear forecasts aren't always the best and sometimes a slight change in angle of the TUTT can go from hurting to helping the system.

[Kingarabian]

Ernesto never struggled with wind shear.

Self induced wind shear after he decoupled as well.

[meriland23]

This will come down to timing and more/less, how strong the shear will be. This thing slows down or speeds up just a little, it changes everything. Also depends on how long that shear is to stick there at the strength they assume

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

This will come down to timing and more/less, how strong the shear will be. This thing slows down or speeds up just a little, it changes everything. Also depends on how long that shear is to stick there at the strength they assume

Agreed.

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW Joe Bastardi calling for this to dissipate in the Caribbean.

[blp]

5 Day Cone:

[img]http://oi47.tinypic.com/v3m5b5.jpg

INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Interesting how NHC sees strengthening at the end of the 5 day while the major models show weakening. Looks like they are not buying it after Ernie.

[Kingarabian]

FWIW Joe Bastardi calling for this to dissipate in the Caribbean.

AKA what ever the Euro is showing.

[KWT]

Not surprised Joe B is calling for it to die given the more realiable models kill it off in the Caribbean and there is already some poor conditions there. That being said he also killed off Ernesto, and as we all know that hurricane didn't play ball in the end.

IF it survives and makes it past 75W intact, then I see no reason why it won't strengthen in the W.Caribbean. Maybe not quite as rapidly or as strong as Ernesto did, but the idea makes sense and I think thats the logic behind the NHC thinking.

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

Don't know this for a fact, i'm not a meteorologist but I think Ernesto not intensifying like most assumed was due to the mid level dry air intruding into the circulation every time it had a burst of convection. It didn't look like the shear helped play a part in the entire role. So, if most of this mid level dry air is gone I don't see the shear keeping it at bay through the entire 5 day forecast. It will strengthen to a hurricane days sooner than ernesto did. I think the track will keep getting shifted slightly north as forecasters see its not getting affected as much as they may think with shear and dry air and may go just far enough north to make texas coastal residents weary. JM2C.

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[Kingarabian]

Lets see how this deals with our friend, the SAL!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Models so far don't see Hispinola or any island. Other then the chain of islands. But we all know that will change.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

[meriland23]

I am slightly curious about the wave coming off of w africa atm. Obviously not formed enough to have its own discussion section here, but I am curious whether or not it will form and the likelihood of it favorable conditions or not.

[drezee]

FWIW Joe Bastardi calling for this to dissipate in the Caribbean.

AKA what ever the Euro is showing.

Very true...He follows King Euro
The Euro keeps it as an entity though just like Ernesto...

[boca]

Track wise this season is behaving like 2007.Dean and Felix due west thru the Caribbean

[Portastorm]

I am slightly curious about the wave coming off of w africa atm. Obviously not formed enough to have its own discussion section here, but I am curious whether or not it will form and the likelihood of it favorable conditions or not.

On the contrary, we do have a thread for this system.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113281&hilit=

[USTropics]

FWIW Joe Bastardi calling for this to dissipate in the Caribbean.

Not to bash Joe Bastardi but his track record this year hasn't been phenomenal. His forecast for Debby was towards Texas (although 90% of the forecasts for Debby were westward) and he adamantly forecasted for Ernesto to open up into a wave.