KWT wrote:rainstorm wrote:KWT wrote:The pattern I see looks very favourable in the next 2 weeks for cut-off systems to form off fronts, I'd stake alot on such a system like that forming over the next 2 weeks. I could be wrong but it seems a good pattern with constant troughs digging down into the W.Atlantic.
"constant" isnt good. if 1 trough stalls off the coast and i high builds and locks in over new england thats a good set up. but if 1 front after another keeps blasting off the coast nothing will develop close to home.
Depends on whether you want landfalling hurricane that cause ruin or whether your interested in Tropical systems and hurricane forming?
In all honesty though I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference whether we have a negative or positive NAO for development, looking through the history of hurricanes it looks pretty equal with regards to active months (some were -ve, some were +ve)
Its interesting, I might do a little 'study' to see what 'produces' more storms and hurricanes...-ve or +ve
I don't want anyone to perish, or for anyone's life to be ruined. But I also don't want a storm that we know will impact no one before it forms; that is boring and such a storm might as well be on another planet. But in the end, what I or any of us want doesn't matter, so I don't feel bad if I react excitedly to the prospect of an interesting storm that could threaten land.
Back on topic: The conventional wisdom I've heard is that a negative NAO is good for storm formation, and a positive one is good for US landfalls. I'm not sure if anyone has done a detailed statistical analysis, though.