Global model runs discussion

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BigA
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Re: Re:

#4121 Postby BigA » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:41 am

KWT wrote:
rainstorm wrote:
KWT wrote:The pattern I see looks very favourable in the next 2 weeks for cut-off systems to form off fronts, I'd stake alot on such a system like that forming over the next 2 weeks. I could be wrong but it seems a good pattern with constant troughs digging down into the W.Atlantic.



"constant" isnt good. if 1 trough stalls off the coast and i high builds and locks in over new england thats a good set up. but if 1 front after another keeps blasting off the coast nothing will develop close to home.


Depends on whether you want landfalling hurricane that cause ruin or whether your interested in Tropical systems and hurricane forming?

In all honesty though I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference whether we have a negative or positive NAO for development, looking through the history of hurricanes it looks pretty equal with regards to active months (some were -ve, some were +ve)

Its interesting, I might do a little 'study' to see what 'produces' more storms and hurricanes...-ve or +ve



I don't want anyone to perish, or for anyone's life to be ruined. But I also don't want a storm that we know will impact no one before it forms; that is boring and such a storm might as well be on another planet. But in the end, what I or any of us want doesn't matter, so I don't feel bad if I react excitedly to the prospect of an interesting storm that could threaten land.

Back on topic: The conventional wisdom I've heard is that a negative NAO is good for storm formation, and a positive one is good for US landfalls. I'm not sure if anyone has done a detailed statistical analysis, though.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4122 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:24 pm

OFF TOPIC = It has already been done. Search for a paper entitled, "Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks" by Lian Xie, et al. 2005.

KWT wrote: Its interesting, I might do a little 'study' to see what 'produces' more storms and hurricanes...-ve or +ve
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4123 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:27 pm

12z GFS has plenty of activity in the Atlantic on long range,but no threats to NorthAmerica for now.

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#4124 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:42 pm

:uarrow: I am starting to wonder if the long-range GFS has a development bias seeing how it forecasted 93l to be a significant system with several others behind it. The ECMWF hasn't been showing much Cape Verde development at all and so far that is verifying. I can't see three systems developing like the long-range GFS is showing. That said so far it has done quite well with the systems that ended up developing into named systems this year such as Debbie and Ernesto.
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#4125 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:53 pm

To be fair lets not rule out 93L developing down the line at some point just yet...

Also the GFS stalls 93L and develops it whilst it slows down.

I think the GFS is OTT, but we are getting into prime time, a couple of storms at the same time is quite possible, especially if they are CV systems.
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Re:

#4126 Postby JPmia » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:14 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: I am starting to wonder if the long-range GFS has a development bias seeing how it forecasted 93l to be a significant system with several others behind it. The ECMWF hasn't been showing much Cape Verde development at all and so far that is verifying. I can't see three systems developing like the long-range GFS is showing. That said so far it has done quite well with the systems that ended up developing into named systems this year such as Debbie and Ernesto.


I notice that lately too.. I recall the GFS doing this often though over the years.. so maybe their upgrades didn't fix that issue, but as far as when something develops it seems to have improved.
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#4127 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:54 pm

thru the 27th that GFS shows no threats to the SE coast. JB might be getting worried.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4128 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:57 pm

A very close call for the NE Caribbean shown by GFS,but is long range and because of the timeframe so long it will change a lot.After being at that position,it goes north of the islands.

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#4129 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:58 pm

Funny you say that rainstorm, the 18z actually does give us a homebrew and it hits the SE states probably as a high end TS from the looks of things...develops as soon as 144hrs but its the first time any such system has been shown.

However I expect that sort of thing to have a good chance of happening in the next few weeks along with a W.Atlantic system that forms from a cold core.

Borderline hyperactive 18z GFS, looks OTT to me but 93L eventually forms way north, the FL landfaller develops, a weak cutoff low feature does form in the W.Atlantic before being whisked away, a powerful major hurricane comes nighty close to the NE Caribbean and a couple of other weaker CV systems. Probably 4-5 storms in 2 weeks if that GFS was right!!
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#4130 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:23 pm

i dont see anything near the se states thru 168. can you provide a map?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

nothing thru 168.
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#4131 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:46 pm

168hrs:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal168.gif

192:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

Strengthening system heading towards landfall...as I said it probably means nothing given its the first time its shown that solution, it might be the remains of TD7 that reforms.
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#4132 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:14 pm

yea, that is the remains of TD7. when i listened to JB on bloomberg he was referring to the SE coastline.
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#4133 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:01 pm

With fronts digging a lot farther south than normal, could those become storm triggers as well?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4134 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:06 pm

The thing that we need to watch is if the GFS shows the same scenerio in the next few runs, if not it was probably an anomolus run, but if it shows the same thing the next few runs we may have something that bears watching with the artist formally known as TD7

Also the GFS shows a storm at 384 heading for bermuda, probably not going to happen like this

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Re:

#4135 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:58 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:With fronts digging a lot farther south than normal, could those become storm triggers as well?



only if its one front with a huge high following it locking in over new england.
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#4136 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:36 am

JB isnt going to like what LC is saying. LC says the season has ground to a halt due to dry saharan air, westerlies, and TUTT'S everywhere. says no threats till at least aug27th.

i think JB knows he blew it saying aug20-sept5th was ominous for the SE. he hasnt tweeted about the tropics since
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Re:

#4137 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 12, 2012 9:39 am

Isn't every August 20-September 5 ominous for the SE? Pretty much every Labor Day weekend, I recall either where I am in south florida either being in a cone of uncertainty, or potentially being in a cone of uncertainty, etc....kinda seems that neither LC or JB are saying anything so extraordinary. I think they are looking more for a headline or a spot on cable news to tell us what pretty much every one on this board could say - in the short term, nothing looks imminent and as we head to the peak of the season by mid-September, and almost all weather organizations are calling for 5-10 more storms, probably one or 2 will be during the Aug 20-Sep 5 timeframe.

Neither has any more definitive data and model runs than anyone else - margin of error 2, 3, 4 weeks out is pretty big - even if you are JB!





rainstorm wrote:JB isnt going to like what LC is saying. LC says the season has ground to a halt due to dry saharan air, westerlies, and TUTT'S everywhere. says no threats till at least aug27th.

i think JB knows he blew it saying aug20-sept5th was ominous for the SE. he hasnt tweeted about the tropics since
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4138 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 12, 2012 9:50 am

Let's stop the who said what and when and why and instead stick to the topic here, global model run discussions.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4139 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2012 1:05 pm

GFS has been showing something in the BOC/Western GOM for a few runs and at the 12z run,it shows it again.
And this is not in long range.

180 hours.

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192 hours.

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#4140 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 12, 2012 1:41 pm

is that what was td 7?
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